分类号密级公开
UDC 编号20213510007
硕士学位论文
（学术学位）
非常规货币政策对新兴市场经济体
国际资本流动的影响
申请人姓名刘孟萍
导师姓名及职称吴周恒，副教授
申请学位类别经济学硕士
学科专业名称金融学
培养单位金融学院
学位授予单位广东外语外贸大学
2024年5月20日
分类号密级公开
UDC 编号20213510007
广东外语外贸大学硕士学位论文
（学术学位）
非常规货币政策对新兴市场经济体国际资本流动的影响
Impact of Unconventional Monetary Policies on International
Capital Flows in Emerging Market Economies
申请人姓名刘孟萍
导师姓名及职称吴周恒，副教授
申请学位类别经济学硕士
学科专业名称金融学
论文提交日期2024年5月20日
论文答辩日期2024年4月28日
答辩委员会傅元海，教授
杨公齐，教授
邓超，副教授
钟茜，讲师
张瀚文，讲师
学位授予单位：广东外语外贸大学
摘要
2020年新冠疫情在全球大面积爆发，是继2008年全球金融危机之后第二次
发生的全球性金融危机，其带来的不确定性和冲击引发全球资本市场剧烈动荡。
各国为防止经济急速下滑，纷纷采取以量化宽松为主等非常规货币政策来缓冲和
稳定疫情对经济带来的突发性冲击，以此减少风险对国家经济的影响，维护国家
金融稳定。而其中以美联储为代表的发达国家重启无上限量化宽松政策，非常规
货币政策达到了前所未有的强度，由此引发了跨境资本流动大规模流向新兴市场
经济体。在此背景下，本文将研究以美联储为代表的发达国家在全球危机期间，
所实施的量化宽松政对新兴市场国家跨境资本流动的影响以及对我国的政策建
议。
因此，本文基于Jamus 和Sanket（2016）采用量化宽松政策虚拟变量，从流
动性渠道、投资组合渠道和信心渠道这三个货币政策传导机制来考察对新兴市场
跨境资本流动的影响。本文选取2005年3月至2021年12月期间23个新兴市场
国家的月度面板数据，以由美联储实施非常规货币政策导致金融账户下投资组合
流向新兴市场国家的资金流入为因变量，三个传导渠道的驱动因素为自变量，采
用GMM 和固定效应的面板回归模型来考察以美联储为代表的发达国家实施非
常规货币政策对新兴市场跨境资本流动的影响。
本文研究成果主要有三点：（1）在以美联储为代表的发达国家实施量化宽
松政策会促进跨境资本流向新兴市场国家。（2）将量化宽松政策作为调节变量，
会进一步刺激跨境资本流向新兴市场国家。（3）再比较2008年全球金融危机和
2020年疫情下两轮量化宽松政策对新兴市场国家跨境资本流动影响的驱动因素
影响程度有所变化。
本文再通过逐步增加控制变量和探讨对不同资金流动的影响来补充和进一
步论证现有研究的研究成果。最后，本文的研究丰富了在新冠疫情下发达国家非
常规货币政策对跨境资本流动影响的相关研究，对危机下的国际资本流动所带来
的风险防控提出见解。同时，随着全球经济金融一体化程度加深，为更好迎接我
国实施的积极主动开放战略，实现经济高质量发展，提供理论和现实双重意义。
关键词全球金融危机；非常规货币政策；跨境资本流动；新兴市场国家
I
Abstract
The outbreak of the COVID-19pandemic in 2020was the second global
financial crisis after the global financial crisis in 2008,the uncertainty and impact
brought by it caused severe turmoil in the global capital market.In order to prevent a
rapid economic downturn,countries have adopted unconventional monetary policies
such as quantitative easing to cushion and stabilize the sudden impact of the epidemic
on the economy,so as to reduce the impact of risks on the national economy and
maintain national financial stability.Among them,developed countries,represented by
the Federal Reserve,have restarted the uncapped quantitative easing policy,and the
unconventional monetary policy has reached an unprecedented intensity,which has
triggered a large-scale cross-border capital flow to emerging market economies.In
this context,the paper will study the impact of quantitative easing（QE）implemented
by developed countries represented by the US Federal Reserve on cross-border capital
flows in emerging market countries during the global crisis and policy
recommendations for China.
Therefore,based on Jamus and Sanket's（2016）use of quantitative easing policy
dummy variables,this paper examines the impact on cross-border capital flows in
emerging markets from three monetary policy transmission mechanisms:liquidity
channel,portfolio channel,and confidence channel.This paper selects the monthly
panel data of 23emerging market countries from March 2005to December
2021,takes the inflow of funds from the investment portfolio under the financial
account to emerging market countries due to the implementation of the Fed's
unconventional monetary policy as the dependent variable,and the driving factors of
the three transmission channels as the independent variables,and uses the GMM and
fixed-effect panel regression models to investigate the impact of the implementation
of unconventional monetary policies in developed countries represented by the Fed on
the cross-border capital flows of emerging markets.
The research results of this paper have three main points（:1）The implementation
of quantitative easing policy in developed countries represented by the US Federal
Reserve will promote cross-border capital flows to emerging market countries.（2）
Using quantitative easing as a moderating variable will further stimulate cross-border
capital flows to emerging market countries.（3）Comparing the drivers of the impact
of the two rounds of quantitative easing on cross-border capital flows in emerging
market countries under the global financial crisis in 2008and the epidemic in
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2020,the degree of influence has changed.
This paper then supplements and further demonstrates the research results of
existing studies by gradually increasing the control variables and exploring the impact
on different financial flows.Finally,this paper enriches the research on the impact of
unconventional monetary policies in developed countries on cross-border capital
flows under the COVID-19pandemic,and provides insights on the risk prevention and
control of international capital flows under the crisis.At the same time,with the
deepening of global economic and financial integration,in order to better meet the
proactive opening strategy implemented by China and achieve high-quality economic
development,it provides both theoretical and practical significance.
Keywords Global financial crisis;Unconventional monetary;International capital
flows;Emerging market economics
III