I 摘要 粮食安全问题是我国十三五规划期间亟需解决的问题。由于云南省粮食产能 不高，即便加上外购，每年也还有 200 多万吨粮食难以供应，供需缺口大。随着 云南省经济的快速发展、总人口数的攀升等，云南省粮食的供需缺口还将逐年增 大。而云南省的粮食流通基础设施薄弱，流通体系中心枢纽的建设还是一片空白。 要促进云南省粮食流通体系的发展，保证粮食供应安全，需要建设一定规模的现 代化粮食物流中心。正值昆明市城市规划需要搬迁市内最大的粮食批发市场，于 是昆明凉亭粮食转运站搬迁项目即昆明粮食物流园应运而生。 本文案例项目拟建成面向东南亚、近期年吞吐能力在 110 万吨，集仓储、中 转、配送、储备、加工、服务为一体的现代化粮食物流中心。文章通过对东南亚、 云南省的粮食需求与贸易市场分析，论述了该项目之战略目标的合理性。文中介 绍了园区的规划建设方案，根据建设方案、盈利模式和项目融资情况等，估算项 目的未来收入和利润等，分析项目的财务效益和社会效益。分析发现采用传统的 仓储物流及信息服务等盈利模式估算出的税后内部收益率仅为 3.61%，净现值小于 零,投资回收期约 16 年，项目不可行。采用仓储物流配套商业物业“出租+自营酒 店”的盈利模式估算的税后内部收益率为 7.73%，净现值大于零，投资回收期 12 年，项目可行。同时，本项目的建成更能产生良好的社会效益。为使项目顺利建 成和运营效果良好，本文亦对项目建设、运营中的风险提出了一些预控措施。 经过整体分析总结，对粮食物流园的投资建设提出一些建议和有待研究的问 题，如何创新盈利模式和提高运营效率等。 本文对投资建设昆明的粮食物流园有实际的指导意义，对云南的粮食物流园 建设有参考价值，是“公益+商业”型项目投资开发模式理论的补充。对属于宏观 调控下有限竞争领域的粮食行业，没有政府调控，靠市场自身发展会很曲折，粮 食物流园区的建设需要政府扶持。政府参与决策、支持配套设施建设，给予土地、 税收等优惠政策，再由企业自主经营，这将有利于粮食市场价格的调控、健全现 代粮食流通体系。 【关键词】粮食物流园 可行性分析 盈利模式 项目投资Abstract III Abstract The problem of food security in China in 13th Five-Year during the planning period is needed to solve the problem. Due to grain production in Yunnan province is not high, even with outsourcing, every year there are about 2000000 tons of food to supply, the supply and demand gap. With the rapid development of economy in Yunnan Province, the total population of Yunnan Province, the gap between supply and demand will increase year by year. But the grain circulation system of Yunnan province is weak, the construction of the center of the circulation system is still a blank. To promote the development of grain circulation system in Yunnan Province, to ensure the security of food supply, the need to build a certain scale of modern food logistics center. When Kunming city planning to move out of the city's biggest grain wholesale market, so the Kunming Pavilion food transport station relocation project of Kunming grain logistics park came into being. In this paper, the case is proposed to build a modern food logistics center, which is based on the capacity of 1 million 100 thousand tons of storage, transit, distribution, storage, processing and service as a whole in the Southeast Asia and the near future. Based on the analysis of food demand and trade market in Southeast Asia and Yunnan Province, this paper discusses the rationality of the strategic objectives of the project. This paper introduces the planning and construction of the park, according to the construction plan, profit model and project financing, the future income and profits of the project, the analysis of the project's financial and social benefits. Analysis found that the traditional warehousing and logistics and information services, such as profit model after tax internal rate of return is only 3.61%, the net present value is less than zero, the investment recovery period of about 16 years, the project is not feasible. Warehousing logistics supporting commercial property rental + self Hotel profit model after tax internal rate of return of 7.73%, the net present value is greater than zero, the investment recovery period of about 12 years, the project is feasible. At the same time, the completion of the project will be more able to produce good social benefits. In order to make the smooth completion of the project and the operation effectAbstract IV is good, this paper also puts forward some measures to control the risk of project construction and operation of. After the overall analysis and summary, the investment and construction of grain logistics park put forward some suggestions and problems to be studied, how to innovate the profit model and improve operational efficiency, etc.. This paper has practical guiding significance for the investment and construction of grain logistics park in Kunming. It is a reference value for the construction of Yunnan's grain logistics park, and is a supplement to the theory of public welfare + business project investment and development model. Under the macro-control of the limited competition in the field of food industry, there is no government regulation and control by the market itself will be very tortuous, the construction of the food logistics park needs the government to support. Government participation in decision-making, supporting facilities construction, giving land, tax and other preferential policies, and then by the enterprise independent operation, which will be conducive to the regulation of the price of grain market, improve the modern food circulation system. 【Key words】Grain LogisticsPark；FeasibilityAnalysis；profit model；project investment目录 V 目 录 摘要............................................................................................................. I Abstract .......................................................................................................III 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................1 第一节 研究的背景和意义...................................................................................... 1 一、研究背景..............................................................................................................................1 二、研究意义..............................................................................................................................2 第二节 文献综述...................................................................................................... 2 一、粮食物流园区建设现状、意义..........................................................................................2 二、物流园商业模式..................................................................................................................3 三、粮食物流园的建设管理......................................................................................................3 四、物流园可行性及风险分析..................................................................................................3 第三节 研究方法与报告框架.................................................................................. 4 一、研究方法..............................................................................................................................4 二、报告框架..............................................................................................................................5 第二章 昆明粮食物流园区建设的必要性................................................6 第一节 国家政策背景.............................................................................................. 6 一、国家经济战略的影响..........................................................................................................6 二、国家“十三五”规划的要求..................................................................................................7 三、云南省粮食产业发展目标..................................................................................................7 四、昆明市城市发展的影响......................................................................................................7 第二节 东南亚地区市场分析.................................................................................... 8 一、东南亚的粮食产业状况......................................................................................................8 二、东南亚的粮食贸易环境......................................................................................................8 三、东南亚的电商环境..............................................................................................................8 第三节 云南省市场分析.......................................................................................... 8 一、云南省粮食供给与需求......................................................................................................9 二、昆明市粮食供给与需求......................................................................................................9目录 VI 三、滇中城市群粮食需求........................................................................................................10 四、云南省的特色农产品........................................................................................................10 五、云南省粮食物流现状........................................................................................................10 第四节 本章小结.................................................................................................... 12 一、云南省粮食物流产业环境................................................................................................12 二、昆明市粮食物流园区的建设优势....................................................................................13 第三章 项目方案 ......................................................................................14 第一节 战略定位.................................................................................................... 14 一、市场定位............................................................................................................................14 二、功能定位............................................................................................................................14 三、规模定位............................................................................................................................14 第二节 建设方案.................................................................................................... 15 一、园区选址............................................................................................................................15 二、开发模式............................................................................................................................17 三、规划与设计........................................................................................................................18 四、建设进度及运营能力达产计划........................................................................................19 第四章 项目盈利模式及效益分析..........................................................20 第一节 项目盈利模式............................................................................................ 20 一、仓储物流物业盈利模式....................................................................................................20 二、商业物业盈利模式............................................................................................................21 三、“互联网+供应链”的盈利模式..........................................................................................22 四、国际市场拓展盈利模式....................................................................................................22 第二节 项目财务效益分析.................................................................................... 22 一、投资估算与资金筹措........................................................................................................22 二、盈利模式选择....................................................................................................................25 三、财务效益分析....................................................................................................................26 四、整个项目的敏感性分析....................................................................................................30 第三节 项目社会效益分析.................................................................................... 31 一、有利于发展云南省的粮食流通和保障粮食安全............................................................31 二、有利于集聚相关产业提高行业市场竞争力....................................................................32 三、有利于增加税收和扩大就业............................................................................................32目录 VII 四、有利于减小城市交通压力降低社会成本........................................................................32 第四节 本章小结.................................................................................................... 33 第五章 项目工程建设投资控制............................................................34 第一节 本项目投资情况与国内物流园区对比.................................................... 34 第二节 项目工程建设投资风险控制.................................................................... 36 一、工程造价控制的基本方法................................................................................................36 二、工程建设投资的全过程控制............................................................................................37 三、平衡工期、质量与工程建设投资....................................................................................40 四、规范工程建设相关管理制度............................................................................................41 五、打造优秀的企业文化........................................................................................................42 第三节 本章小结.................................................................................................. 42 第六章 项目其他风险与防范措施..........................................................43 第一节 建设期的风险............................................................................................ 43 一、项目前期要件批复手续延迟风险....................................................................................43 二、建设期延长风险................................................................................................................43 三、融资风险............................................................................................................................43 四、其他风险............................................................................................................................43 第二节 运营期的风险............................................................................................ 43 一、宏观经济风险....................................................................................................................43 二、运营风险............................................................................................................................44 三、人才风险............................................................................................................................45 第三节 管理风险.................................................................................................... 45 第七章 结 论.............................................................................................46 第一节 总结............................................................................................................ 46 一、本文研究的主要结论........................................................................................................46 二、有待进一步研究的问题....................................................................................................47 第二节 建议............................................................................................................ 47 一、科学合理的定位市场和规划园区....................................................................................47 二、重视控制项目工程建设投资............................................................................................48 三、创新商业模式，提高盈利能力........................................................................................48目录 VIII 四、开发模式的完善................................................................................................................48