电力行业是国民经济的基础产业,具有不可代替的重要地位随着社会的 发展,电力在能源消费结构中的比重将越来越大我们要实现国内生产总值到 2020年比2000年翻两番的目标,必须对加快电力建设和增加电力供给提出更 高的要求在我国,用石油发电不具备资源条件和经济性;过多地发展煤电, 环境容量不允许,运输条件也难以支撑;水能资源虽然比较丰富,但总量仍难 以满足经济社会发展的需要发挥核电建设在电力建设中应有的作用,是保障 经济社会长期稳定发展的需要,也是调整能源结构的必然选择 随着我国电力市场改革的推进,改革的方向是/网厂分开!竞价上网0,即 将电网经营企业拥有的发电厂和电网分开,建立规范的!具有独立法人地位的 发电实体,市场也只对发电侧开放,不同于其它国家,中国电力市场保持输电! 配电和供电一体管理模式这就是目前实行的/电厂大家办,电网统一管0的 电力工业发展模式虽然目前核电暂时不参与发电侧市场竞争,但在不久的将 来,核电作为具有独立法人地位的发电实体,也会参与发电侧市场竞争并全面 走向市场核电企业一旦完全走向市场,必然会面临市场的各种竞争和挑战 本文首先从宏观角度入手分析了发展核电的重要性,阐述了我国目前电力 市场改革的情况和目前核电企业面临的一些困难接着从七个方面论述了核电 企业在发电侧市场中的应对策略它们分别是: 1尽快制定我国核电企业的发展前景和战略目标 2竞价策略 3外币债务风险及其管理策略 4争取政府扶持和税收优惠 5进一步拓宽核电企业的融资渠道 6关注核电企业的电价波动风险 7积极引进国外先进技术,自主化!标准化 竞价策略和外币债务风险及其管理策略是应对策略的重点在竞价策略中, 本文引入了博弈论来进行分析在外币债务风险及其管理策略中,本文将外币 风险分为利率风险和汇率风险两大部分来进行论述 最后本文从十个方面对投资核电项目的可行性进行了分析和论述,指出了 在投资核电项目时在这些方面应该注意的问题其中包括核电企业商业化发展 的成本分析;投资!财务和经济效益分析;融资方案;盈亏平衡分析 关键词:核电标准化竞价上网外币利率风险外币汇率风险武汉理_L:人学硕十学位报告 Abstraet ThePowerindustyr15abasieindustryofthenationaleeonomy.Ithave imPortnatPositionnadean,tberePlaeed.WiththedeveloPmentofsoeiety,hte ProPortionintheenergyeonsmuPtionsturetureofeleetricitywillbegreaternad greate.rw七wnattorealizethegoalhtatgrossdomestieProductquadruPlethna2000 by2020,Musttoaceeleratetheeonsturetionofeleertieitynadineeraseeleetrie suPPly.Inoureount,yrw亡generateseleetrieitywiththePertolemu,itdoesnot Possessresoureeeonditionnadeeonomy:DeveloPeoaleleetrieitytoomueh, enviromnentalepaaeityallo,whvaemorediffieulttosuPPorterquirementsofr trnasPortations;ThoughW白terenergyresourcesaremorebaundnat,htetot尽1maount 15stilldiffieulttomeetdemnadsofsoeio一eeonomiedeveloPment.It15aneedof ensuringsoeialdeveloPmeninadeeonomysteadyinalong一temrtogivePlyatothe nuelearPowe.rIt15theunavoidbaleehoiceofadjustingtheenegrysturcturetoo. 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Kewyord:NuelearPowerstandard七ation AehievethegoalofsurfingtheNetinPrieeeomPetition Inteerstrateriskoftheofreigneurreney Exehangerateriskoftheofreigneurrency 111武汉理工大学硕士学位报告 目录 第1章绪论.........................................................................................................1 1.1选题的背景和意义............,....,.....................................................1 1.2研究方法和路线.......................................................................................1 1 . 3我国发展核电的必要性和可行性...........................................................2 1.3.1发展核电产业是大国的共同选择.................................................2 1.3.2发展核电产业是我国能源问题的最佳选择.................................3 1 . 3.3大力发展/以我为主0的核电产业.............................................3 第2章我国电力市场改革!发电市场/竞价上网0分析和我国核电产业面临的 困难分析.................................................................................................................5 2 . 1电力市场改革原由.....................................................................认......5 2 . 2电力市场的改革方向...............................................................................6 2 . 3发电市场的运作模式...............................................................................8 2.4核电产业目前面临的困难与原因分析.................................................10 第3章核电企业在发电侧市场中的应对策略.................................................11 3 . 1尽快制定我国核电企业的发展前景和战略目标.................................11 3 . 2竞价策略.................................................................................................n 3 . 3外币债务风险及其管理策略.................................................................17 3.3.1从借款开始即进行外债风险管理...............................................18 3.3.2选择适当的金融衍生工具...........................................................20 3 . 3 . 3提前偿还债务以降低债务成本.......................................,.....23 3 . 4争取政府扶持和税收优惠.....................................................................23 3.5进一步拓宽核电企业的融资渠道.........................................................24 3.6关注核电企业的电价波动风险.............................................................24 3 . 7积极引进国外先进技术,自主化!标准化.........................................24 第4章投资核电企业的可行性分析.................................................................25 4.1项目兴建理由与〔}标...................................,...................................25 4.2电力市场预测...................,......................,....26 4 . 3建设场地址选择.....................................................................................26 4.4技术!设备方案.....................................................................................27 4.5安全性与环保.........................................................................................29 4.6原材料供应.............................................................................................31 4.7核电企业商业化发展的成本分析.........................................................31武汉理工大学硕十学位报告 4 . 8投资和财务!经济效益分析...........................,...............................33 4.9融资方案.................................................................................................36 4 , 10盈亏平衡分析.......................................................................................37