现代物流业在我国蓬勃发展，被称为 21 世纪的“朝阳产业”、“黄金产业”，喻为 是企业在降低物耗、提高劳动生产率以外的“第三利润源泉”，其发展程度成为衡量一个 国家或地区现代化程度的重要标志之一，同样也是衡量地区经济发展的主要标志之一。锦 州市作为辽西经济区中心城市，具有区位和产业基础等方面有利条件，同时也存在着许多 影响和制约现代物流业健康发展的不利因素。近年来，锦州市物流业发展迅速，类型多样。 但在全市物流企业中占主导地位、占据绝大部分市场份额的是由传统运输、仓储企业经过 改造转型而来的物流企业，亟需一批管理水平过硬、服务质量过关的物流企业来填补锦州 市物流产业的缺口。 本文在对国家及地方物流产业政策深入调研的基础上，分析了国内及辽宁省内第三方 物流的发展现状；通过市场调研与预测、财务分析与评价等方法，对在锦州汤河子工业区 兴建铁路物流园建设项目的可行性展开了论证，为该项目的经济性和可行性提出了明确的 分析结论，认为本项目的建设符合锦州市经济和社会发展的需求，符合国内物流业的发展 方向；本项目的建设符合锦州市将物流业作为主要发展产业的政策指引，有利于带动锦州 市的经济和物流业的发展，对提高市现代物流业的发展水平和竞争力具有重要意义。同时， 本项目具有较高的经济效益和社会效益、整体风险较低，具有较高的可行性。 关键词，现代物流业；铁路物流；市场调研；财务评价；可行性研究- II - Abstract Modern logistics industry flourishes in China, it is called “sunrise industry”, “gold industry” in 21th century, and also is “the third profit source” except for reducing resource degradation and improving labor productivity. The development of modern logistics industry becomes an important mark of measuring the modernization economic development and of a country or a area. As a central city in western Liaoning, Jinzhou has advantages in location and industry basis, and also exits disadvantages that limiting the development of modern logistics industry. In recent years, the modern logistics develops a lot in many different forms. But most of the logistics firms develop from the traditional traffic and storage firms, the logistic firms with good management and service quality are in urgent need in Jinzhou’s modern logistics industry. This thesis is based on the study of logistic industrial policy in China and the local area, and analyzed the development condition of logistic industry in Liaoning; it is also based on the methodology of marketing research and forecasts, financial analysis and appraisal that make a feasibility study of building a railway logistic park in Tang Hezi industrial park, Jinzhou that make a certain conclusion: the economic indicators in this project is high, so it is feasible economically; and this project matches the tendency of modern logistic industry, matches the demand of modern logistic industrial policy and the market in China, Liaoning and Jinzhou, so the project has the broad market prospect. Key Words，Modern Logistics Industry；Railway Logistics；Market Research； Financial Appraisal；Feasibility Research- III - 目 录 摘要..................................................................................................................................I Abstract...................................................................................................................................II 1 绪论.......................................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景.................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 项目建设符合国家产业政策和结构调整的需要................................1 1.1.2 项目建设符合地方经济发展和资源配置的需要................................3 1.1.3 项目建设符合企业可持续发展的需要................................................. 4 1.2 研究目的和意义..................................................................................................... 4 1.3 国内外研究综述..................................................................................................... 6 1.3.1 国外研究综述.............................................................................................6 1.3.2 国内研究综述.............................................................................................7 1.4 研究思路及结构..................................................................................................... 8 1.4.1 研究思路..................................................................................................... 8 1.4.2 研究结构..................................................................................................... 8 2 物流园区及可行性研究的理论基础...............................................................................9 2.1 物流园区定义与形成发展....................................................................................9 2.2 物流园区的基本属性和建设影响因素.............................................................. 9 2.2.1 物流园区的基本属性................................................................................9 2.2.2 物流园区建设影响因素分析.................................................................10 2.3 可行性研究理论概述...........................................................................................11 3 锦州汤河子铁路物流园项目概况.................................................................................13 3.1 项目平面布置原则...............................................................................................13 3.2 项目平面布置........................................................................................................13 3.3 项目道路................................................................................................................14 3.4 土建.........................................................................................................................14 3.5 储运设备................................................................................................................14 3.6 项目环境................................................................................................................15- IV - 3.7 项目消防等考虑...................................................................................................15 4 项目市场分析与预测...................................................................................................... 16 4.1 国内第三方物流项目建设的意义及其发展空间...........................................16 4.2 辽宁省物流行业发展现状..................................................................................17 4.3 项目市场分析与预测...........................................................................................17 4.3.1 市场分析...................................................................................................17 4.3.2 市场预测...................................................................................................20 4.4 项目市场定位与经营模式..................................................................................21 4.4.1 市场定位...................................................................................................21 4.4.2 经营模式...................................................................................................21 5 项目运营业务量及相关指标测算.................................................................................23 5.1 业务量测算............................................................................................................23 5.2 企业组织结构与定员...........................................................................................23 5.3 项目投资及资金筹措...........................................................................................24 6 财务评价............................................................................................................................26 6.1 营业收入测算........................................................................................................26 6.2 营业成本与费用估算...........................................................................................26 6.3 营业税金及附加估算...........................................................................................27 6.4 盈利能力分析........................................................................................................27 6.5 清偿能力分析........................................................................................................28 6.6 财务预测................................................................................................................28 6.7 不确定性分析........................................................................................................30 7 结论及展望........................................................................................................................31 7.1 研究结论................................................................................................................31 7.2 研究展望................................................................................................................32