密级：公开
论文类型：专题研究
工商管理硕士学位论文
(非全日制）
A 农商银行信贷风险及影响因素研究
Research on credit risk and influencing factors of A Rural
Commercial Bank
培 养 单 位： 管 理 学 院
专 业 领 域：工 商 管 理
学 生 姓 名：曹振东
校 内 导 师： 李艳丽
校 外 导 师：董月超
二○二二年六月 独 创 性 声 明
本人声明所呈交的论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作及
取得的研究成果。尽我所知，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的地方外，
论文中不包含其他人已经发表或撰写过的研究成果，也不包含为获得
石家庄铁道大学或其它教育机构的学位或证书而使用过的材料。与我
一同工作的同志对本研究所做的任何贡献均已在论文中作了明确的说
明并表示了谢意。
签 名： 日 期： 2022 年 5 月 20 日
关于论文使用授权的说明
本人完全了解石家庄铁道大学有关保留、使用学位论文的规定，
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被查阅和借阅，同意学校将论文加入《中国优秀博硕士学位论文全文
数据库》和编入《中国学位论文全文数据库》。本人授权石家庄铁道
大学，可以采用影印、缩印或其他复制手段保存论文，可以公布论文
的全部或部分内容。(保密的论文在解密后应遵守此规定)
作者签名：日 期： 2022 年 5 月 20 日
导师签名：日 期： 2022 年 5 月 20 日
摘 要
摘 要
提高风险防控能力，确保借出去资金能够如期收回，是每个商业银行致力于
解决的问题。近年来，全球经济状况不容乐观，使我国经济面临持续的下行压力，
经济增长速度持续放缓。对于农商银行来说，如何加强信贷风险的管控，降低信
贷风险的问题更为棘手，一方面其经营状况易受国家政策、气候变化等不可控因
素的影响，另一方面其管理水平较低，抵抗风险能力不高，更容易受经济波动的
影响，这也是长期以来农商银行风险防控的难题，这不利于银行本身的发展，也
有碍于国家惠农政策的实施。
本文选取 A 农商银行作为研究对象，研究 A 农商银行的信贷风险防控问题。
旨在通过对历年数据统计分析找出 A 农商银行风险防控中的问题与原因，改进管
理手段，提高信贷风险防控水平。在研究之初通过阅读和整理相关文献资料，对
银行信贷风险控制形成较为全面的理论认识。对 A 农商银行近几年的经营情况和
信贷风险情况进行了全面系统的调研，并对相关数据进行了整理。在A 农商银行
信贷业务情况上，从贷款总量、不良贷款类别、贷款结构和贷款集中度等方面进
行了深入分析。并从组织结构、信贷风险管理制度、信贷管理流程这三个角度介
绍了 A 农商银行的信贷风险管理现状。通过分析A 农商银行当前所处的经济大环
境和 A 农商银行的信贷风险管理现状从内外两个角度分析了影响信贷风险的因素。
建立回归模型对信贷风险的相关因素进行实证分析，验证其影响作用。最后根据
研究结果结合工作实际提出切实有效的优化方案，从提高内部管理水平，顺应宏
观经济政策优化信贷资源配置、转变盈利模式、改进业务结构和改变传统思维模
式，加快产品与服务模式创新四个方面着手，解决 A 农商银行的信贷风险控制中
存在的棘手问题，降低信贷风险。
关键词：信贷风险；影响因素；风险管理； 回归模型
Abstract
Abstract
Improving the ability of risk prevention and control and ensuring that the borrowed
funds can be recovered on time are the problems that every commercial bank is
committed to solving. In recent years, the global economic situation is not optimistic,
which makes China;s economy face continuous downward pressure and the economic
growth rate continues to slow down. For rural commercial banks, how to strengthen the
control of credit risk and reduce credit risk is more difficult. On the one hand, their
business conditions are vulnerable to uncontrollable factors such as national policies
and climate change. On the other hand, their management level is low, their ability to
resist risk is not high, and they are more vulnerable to economic fluctuations. This is
also a difficult problem for rural commercial banks in risk prevention and control for a
long time, which is not conducive to the development of banks themselves, It also
hinders the implementation of the national preferential agricultural policy.
This paper selects a rural commercial bank as the research object to study the credit
risk prevention and control of a rural commercial bank. The purpose is to find out the
problems and reasons in the risk prevention and control of a rural commercial bank
through the statistical analysis of the data over the years, improve the management
means and improve the level of credit risk prevention and control. At the beginning of
the study, through reading and sorting out relevant literature, we formed a more
comprehensive theoretical understanding of bank credit risk control. This paper makes a
comprehensive and systematic investigation on the operation and credit risk of a rural
commercial bank in recent years, and arranges the relevant data. In terms of the credit
business of a rural commercial bank, this paper makes an in-depth analysis from the
aspects of total loans, non-performing loan types, loan structure and loan concentration.
It also introduces the current situation of credit risk management of a rural commercial
bank from three perspectives: organizational structure, credit risk management system
and credit management process. By analyzing the current economic environment of a
rural commercial bank and the current situation of credit risk management of a rural
commercial bank, this paper analyzes the factors affecting credit risk from both internal Abstract
and external perspectives.Establish a regression model to empirically analyze the
relevant factors of credit risk and verify its impact. Finally, according to the research
results and combined with the actual work, this paper puts forward practical and
effective optimization schemes to solve the thorny problems existing in the credit risk
control of a rural commercial bank and reduce the credit risk from four aspects:
improving the internal management level, conforming to the macroeconomic policy,
optimizing the allocation of credit resources, changing the profit model, improving the
business structure and changing the traditional thinking mode, and accelerating the
innovation of product and service model.
Keywords: credit risk, Influencing factors, Risk management, Regression model