摘要
合肥科技农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称“合科行”）于 2007 年 2 月 14
日挂牌成立，是全国省会城市首家农村商业银行。作为农村社区商业银行的合肥科技
银行在城乡一体化发展中，开始将个人贷款作为一个新的利润增长点。当前，我国经
济发展进入新常态化，经济下行压力加大，这一因素也影响到了个人住房贷款业务的
变化，目前在这一业务中出现了很多的风险和隐患，而且这一趋势愈加明显。加强对
住房贷款风险管理、改善管理方式上，强化内部制度、提高执行能力、认清风险的特
点并加强管理是当前合肥科技银行在住房贷款业务发展中亟待解决的课题

本文按照“提出问题→理论研究→分析问题→解决问题”的思路展开。以合肥科
技银行为例分析住房贷款风险管理情况，充分运用文献研究法、实证分析法等方法，
明确国内外研究现状与相关理论，在了解住房贷款风险管理相关研究成果的基础上夯
实本文的研究理论基础。而后全面分析合肥地方经济发展及房地产市场状况，阐明合
科行住房贷款业务的市场现状与风险现状。并以合科行主要的客户群体农村居民住房
贷款信用风险作为实证分析案例，以实际工作样本建立定量分析模型，最终通过回归
模型构建和分析得到影响农村居民住房贷款风险影响因素，得到农村居民住房贷款风
险分析结论，即当前合科行在农村居民住房贷款风险管理方面，客户准入机制有待于
完善、利率杠杆作用没有充分发挥、贷款后的精细化管理不足、个人住房贷款队伍建
设水平不高。通过本文的研究，预期的研究目标是通过聚焦合科行住房贷款业务发展
和风险管理现状，采取相应的管理措施，保证能够对症下药，解决当前信贷领域所出
现的风险问题，从而进一步提升该行住房贷款业务的风险防控能力，使业务更加健康
快速发展。最后，提出完善合科行住房贷款风险的对策与建议，如加强个人住房贷款
前的审查力度，严格把关客户准入；加强个人住房贷款后的管理，避免资产质量下降；
提高业务水平，加强个人贷款业务人员队伍建设

关键词：住房贷款；风险；管理研究合肥科技农商银行住房贷款风险管理研究
I
ABSTRACT
Hefei Science and Technology Rural Commercial Bank was established on February
14, 2007. It is a capital city of the country&39;s first rural commercial banks. As a rural
community commercial bank, Hefei Science and Technology Bank began to personal loans
as a new profit growth point in urban and rural integration development. At present,
China&39;s economic development into the new normalization, the economic downward
pressure to increase the personal housing loan business risks gradually appear, concerned
about loans, bad loans gradually increased, the risk prevention and control situation that it
is more severe. Improve execution ability, identify risk characteristics, and strengthen
management a series of risks, that is the current Hefei Technology Problems in the
Development of Housing Loan Business.
This article is in accordance with the “proposed problem→ theoretical research →
analysis of the problem→ solve the problem”. Hefei Science and Technology Bank as an
example to analyze the risk management of housing loans, make full use of literature
research methods, empirical analysis and other methods, a clear domestic and foreign
research status and related theories, understanding of housing loan risk management based
on the research results of compaction research Theoretical basis. Then a comprehensive
analysis of local economic development in Hefei and the real estate market conditions,
clarify the division of housing loan business market situation and risk status quo. Taking
the credit risk of rural residents&39; housing loans, which is the main customer base of the
Branch, as an empirical analysis case, a quantitative analysis model is set up based on
actual working samples. Finally, the influencing factors of rural residential housing loan
risk are obtained through the regression model building and the rural residential housing
Loan risk analysis concluded that the current branch of the rural residential housing loan
risk management, customer access mechanism needs to be perfected, the interest rate
leverage has not been fully realized, the lending fine management, individual housing loan
team building level is not high . Through the research in this article, the expected research
goal is to focus on the status quo of HSBC mortgage loan development and risk
management, take appropriate management measures to ensure that the right remedy can
be solved and the current risk problems in the credit field can be solved, so as to further
enhance the bank&39;s housing. The risk prevention and control ability of the loan business
enabled the business to grow healthier and faster. Finally, we put forward countermeasuresABSTRACT
II
and suggestions to perfect the risk of housing loan in the branch, such as strengthening the
censorship before individual housing loans and strictly controlling clients&39; access;
strengthening the management after individual housing loans to avoid the decline of asset
quality; improving the professional level and strengthening the individual Loan business
staff team building.
KEYWORDS: Housing loan; Risk; Research合肥科技农商银行住房贷款风险管理研究目 录
第一章 绪论·1
第一节 研究背景·1
第二节 研究目的与意义4
一、研究目的·4
二、研究意义·4
第三节 研究内容与研究方法·4
一、研究内容·4
二、研究方法·5
三、本文的创新与不足5
第二章 理论基础与研究综述··6
第一节 相关理论·6
一、全面风险管理理论6
二、理性违约与被动违约理论8
三、违约期权理论··9
四、信息不对称理论·9
五、贷款价值比率（LTV）理论·10
第二节 研究综述··10
一、国外的研究·10
二、国内的研究·13
第三章 合科行住房贷款风险现状·16
第一节 合肥地方经济发展及房地产市场状况·16
一、合肥市社会经济发展概况·16
二、合肥市房地产市场发展概况16
第二节 合科行住房贷款业务市场现状·18
一、合科行简介·18
二、合科行个人住房贷款业务发展概况19目录三、合科行个人住房贷款风险现状分析·
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