I 摘要 电视剧行业作为一个成熟的产业形态，以其独有的行业特性和商业价值 始终受到了社会各方资本力量的助推和热捧。在资本投资与电视剧行业携手 并进共同发展的同时，随着市场竞争的不断激化，电视剧项目投资的丰厚回 报也开始了下行趋势，投资失败的案例已经见多不怪，电视剧项目的投资出 现了新的问题。为了精准的把握投资商机，确保电视剧项目投资目标的顺利 实现，科学有效地进行电视剧投资的可行性研究，已经是当下电视剧项目投 资的重点问题。 本报告从西安 SL 影视文化传媒有限公司主投，QF 投资公司跟投的视角，以 一部完全商业化运作的家庭伦理剧—《钱广的摇滚时代》电视剧项目的投资 为研究对象，运用项目管理的理论与方法，对该项目的可行性进行了研究。 报告首先对项目前期的市场调查、商业运营环境进行了分析，明确了该项目 的市场定位和营销模式，运用 SWOT 分析法分析了该项目具有的优势和劣势， 面临的机会和威胁；其次报告对该项目财务可行性进行了全面的分析和研究， 计算了项目的财务指标，并对项目的风险进行了评估；第三，报告对该项目 的投资合作模式进行了设计，提出了该项目投资方案的实施措施，以及投资 的监督管理等的具体措施。报告综合运用了德尔菲法( Delphi Method)、SWOT 分析、财务评价模型、风险管控矩阵等专业技术方法，来分析判断与评估《钱广的 摇滚时代》电视剧项目投资的可行性，探究电视剧项目投资实际工作中的一 些核心环节和操作重点，为同行业的学术研究和工作实操提供必要的参考。 关键词， 电视剧行业 项目投资 可行性研究Abstract III Abstract TV drama industry as a mature industry form, with its unique industry characteristics and business value has always been the boost and heat holding of social forces of capital. With the capital investment and the TV industry are developing hand in hand, and the continuous intensification of the market competition, the huge invest-return in TV dramas began to decline. There are more and more failure cases, and generates new problems. To carry out the scientific and efficient investment feasibility study, is the focus of the current investment strategy on TV drama project, in order to seize the investment opportunities accurately, to ensure the investment projects accomplished smoothly. This thesis is from the perspective of the main investor - Xi'an SL Film and Television Culture Media Co., Ltd., and the sub-investor - QF investment company points of view, the research is based on the investment of a completely commercialized family ethic drama “QianGuang’s Rock Era”, by using the theory and method of project management, the feasibility study. First of all, this paper tests the market and analysis the business environment, to indentified the market position of the project. And by using SWOT to analyze the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats of the project; Secondly, the paper studies the financial feasibility of the project, to calculate the financial indicators and evaluate the risk of the project; Thirdly, the paper designs the investment plan and puts forward the implementation measures of the plan, and the specific measures for the supervision and control and the smooth liquidation of the project. The paper uses the Delphi Method, SWOT analysis, financial evaluation model, risk control matrix and other professional technical methods, to analyze and evaluate the feasibility of the investment of this TV project. To search the key points and the core practice of such investment. To provide some necessary reference for academic research and practical work in this industry. Key words: TV drama industry, Project investment, Feasibility study插图索引 V 插图索引 图 1.1 报告整体架构...................................................................................................4 图 2.1 中国电视剧发展阶段.....................................................................................12 图 2.2 电视剧的主要形式.........................................................................................12 图 2.3 电视剧的分类................................................................................................13 图 2.4 2014 年电视剧年代剧分布图.......................................................................15 图 2.5 电视剧项目投资合作方式.............................................................................16 图 2.6 电视剧项目投资基本流程.............................................................................17 图 3.1《钱广的摇滚时代》人物关系图..................................................................21 图 3.2 电视剧项目投资成本.....................................................................................23 图 3.3 2014 年电视剧市场题材分析.......................................................................27 图 3.4 2014 年电视剧市场机构与份额分析...........................................................28 图 4.1 敏感性分析图................................................................................................51 图 4.2 项目风险控制管理步骤................................................................................52 图 5.1《钱广的摇滚时代》项目实施流程..............................................................59 图 5.2 PDCA 循环工作程序 .....................................................................................60 图 5.3《钱广的摇滚时代》项目实施进度..............................................................61表格索引 VII 表格索引 表 3.1 项目整体概况.................................................................................................23 表 3.2 2014 年 CSM50 城电视剧收视 TOP10 排行榜...............................................26 表 3.3《钱广的摇滚时代》项目 SWOT 分析矩阵....................................................35 表 4.1 电视剧项目投资预算数据.............................................................................38 表 4.2《钱广的摇滚时代》项目投资预算..............................................................39 表 4.3《钱广的摇滚时代》项目投资预算..............................................................40 表 4.4 电视剧项目销售数据.....................................................................................41 表 4.5 风险报酬率计算表.........................................................................................43 表 4.6 通货膨胀指数计算表....................................................................................43 表 4.7 投资回收期（Pt）计算表.............................................................................44 表 4.8 财务净现值（FNPV）计算表.......................................................................45 表 4.9 财务指标汇总表............................................................................................46 表 4.10《钱广的摇滚时代》项目风险分类............................................................48 表 4.11 风险因素权重计算表..................................................................................49 表 4.12 风险因素概率评估表...................................................................................49 表 4.13 风险因素隶属度(R)矩阵计算表.................................................................49 表 4.14 风险因素综合风险度计算表.......................................................................50 表 4.15 敏感性分析计算表......................................................................................51 表 4.16 风险管理控制矩阵......................................................................................53 表 5.1《钱广的摇滚时代》项目投资合作模式......................................................57目录 IX 目录 摘要......................................................................................................................................I Abstract................................................................................................................................ III 插图索引..............................................................................................................................V 表格索引............................................................................................................................VII 目录.....................................................................................................................................IX 第一章 绪 论.......................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与目的...................................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 背景资料 .................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 研究目的 ................................................................................................... 1 1.2 研究思路与方法...................................................................................................... 2 1.2.1 研究思路与内容 ....................................................................................... 2 1.2.2 研究方法 .................................................................................................... 3 1.2.3 报告整体架构 ........................................................................................... 3 第二章 可行性研究的理论基础.........................................................................................5 2.1 可行性研究的理论.................................................................................................. 5 2.1.1 项目的定义与要素 ................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 项目投资的程序 ....................................................................................... 6 2.1.3 可行性研究理论的形成 ........................................................................... 7 2.1.4 可行性研究的内容 ................................................................................... 8 2.2 财务评价的内容与方法......................................................................................... 9 2.2.1 财务评价的内容 ....................................................................................... 9 2.2.2 财务评价的技术方法 ............................................................................... 9 2.3 电视剧行业的发展状况....................................................................................... 11 2.3.1 电视剧的发展与特性 ............................................................................. 11 2.3.2 电视剧行业的现状 ................................................................................. 14 2.4 电视剧项目投资理论............................................................................................ 15 2.4.1 电视剧项目投资概念 ............................................................................. 15 2.4.2 电视剧项目投资流程 ............................................................................. 16 2.4.3 电视剧项目投资管理 ............................................................................. 17 第三章 项目商业运营分析...............................................................................................19 3.1 投资方简介............................................................................................................ 19西安电子科技大学硕士学位报告 X 3.1.1 主投资方简介......................................................................................... 19 3.1.2 次投资方简介.......................................................................................... 20 3.2 《钱广的摇滚时代》项目综述 .......................................................................... 20 3.2.1 剧情简介................................................................................................. 20 3.2.2 演职人员简介......................................................................................... 21 3.2.3 项目投资预算......................................................................................... 22 3.2.4 电视剧项目的收入构成......................................................................... 24 3.3 项目外部环境分析 .............................................................................................. 25 3.3.1 文化宣传环境分析................................................................................. 25 3.3.2 电视剧项目市场分析............................................................................. 25 3.3.3 电视剧发行模式分析.............................................................................. 30 3.4 项目内部环境分析 .............................................................................................. 30 3.4.1 项目的商业定位...................................................................................... 30 3.4.2 项目的营销模式...................................................................................... 31 3.4.3 项目的市场竞争性.................................................................................. 32 3.5 项目的 SWOT 分析............................................................................................. 33 3.5.1 SWOT 因素解析................................................................................... 33 3.5.2 SWOT 分析矩阵与结论....................................................................... 35 第四章 项目财务评价与风险评估................................................................................... 37 4.1 项目成本与收入测算 ........................................................................................... 37 4.1.1 项目投资成本测算................................................................................. 37 4.1.2 项目销售收入估算.................................................................................. 40 4.1.3 财务折现率............................................................................................. 42 4.2 项目的财务评价 ................................................................................................... 44 4.2.1 静态指标测算.......................................................................................... 44 4.2.2 动态指标测算.......................................................................................... 45 4.2.3 财务可行性评价结论.............................................................................. 46 4.3 项目投资的风险评估 ........................................................................................... 47 4.3.1 项目风险识别.......................................................................................... 47 4.3.2 项目风险量化分析................................................................................. 48 4.3.3 风险因素的敏感性分析.......................................................................... 50 4.3.4 项目风险的应对与控制.......................................................................... 52 第五章 投资方案的实施................................................................................................... 55 5.1 投资合作模式设计 ............................................................................................... 55目录 XI 5.1.1 直接投资模式 .......................................................................................... 55 5.1.2 间接投资模式 .......................................................................................... 56 5.1.3 组合投资模式 .......................................................................................... 57 5.2 投资方案实施....................................................................................................... 58 5.2.1 投资方案实施流程 ................................................................................. 58 5.2.2 投资方案实施进度 ................................................................................. 60 5.2.3 实施过程中的关键控制点 ..................................................................... 62 5.3 投资实施管理........................................................................................................ 63 5.3.1 投资实施管理的内涵 .............................................................................. 63 5.3.2 投资管理的机构 ..................................................................................... 64 5.3.3 投资管理的重点内容 .............................................................................. 65 第六章 研究结论与展望...................................................................................................69 6.1 研究结论................................................................................................................ 69 6.2 研究展望................................................................................................................ 69