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内蒙古巴彦淖尔20MWp光伏电站投资可行性研究报告DOC

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随着我国经济的高速增长,电力工业作为我国国民经济中具有先行性的基础 产业,其对于国民经济的健康发展具有举足轻重的支撑作用,电力行业已经成为 我国国民经济发展战略中的重点发展对象。从可持续发展的战略来看,大力发展 太阳能资源,作为常规能源的重要补充是十分重要的。而太阳能作为清洁能源中 的一种,由于其自身所具备零成本、清洁环保等优势,已经越来越受到人们的青 睐。本文通过对内蒙古巴彦淖尔 20MWp 光伏电站投资可行性的分析,为该光伏电 站的建设提供了重要依据,具有重要的理论与现实意义。 本文首先介绍了报告的研究背景及意义,以及国内外关于太阳能光伏发电的 研究现状;其次对项目可行性研究和投资决策理论进行了概述,对相关概念进行 了阐述;然后介绍了内蒙古巴彦淖尔 20MWp 光伏电站项目概况,介绍了该光伏电 站项目的概况、主要设计原则,并且进行了基于灰色预测的年上网电量预测;再 次分析了巴彦淖尔 20MWp 光伏电站建设和运行的环境和条件,介绍了项目的太阳 能资源状况、地址条件和气象条件;最后对内蒙古巴彦淖尔 20MWp 光伏电站项目 进行经济评价,提出了财务评价的依据,介绍了资金筹措、发电总成本费用和上 网电价及发电效益计算,并且进行了盈利能力分析、敏感性分析和清偿能力分析。 关键词,光伏电站;投资;可行性;经济评价II Abstract Along with high-speed of economy development, the electric power industry which is regarded as a fundamental industry of our country plays a vital role in improving the economic development, it also has become the key object in development strategy. From the strategy view of sustainable development, develop solar energy resources vigorously and consider it as an important supplement of conventional energy is essential. As one of clean energy, solar energy possesses many merits, such as zero cost and environmentally friendly, all these advantages make it receiving more and more attention. Based on the theory of project feasibility, the paper studied the investment feasibility of Bayanzhuoer 20MWp photovoltaic power station in Neimenggu. Firstly, the paper introduce the background and significance of feasibility research, it also introduces relevant research status of solar photovoltaic energy both in domestic and foreign country. Secondly, the paper summarized the theory of investment decision and feasibility research as well as related concepts. Thirdly, the paper introduced the profile of Bayanzhuoer 20MWp photovoltaic power station project, such as the main design principles, construction environment, solar energy resources, address conditions and meteorological conditions, and then, the paper predict the power demand based on the grey prediction. Finally, the paper evaluated the whole project, it not only point out the basis of financial evaluation, financing methods, the way of calculating the total cost and the profit of generate electric power, but also analyze the profitability, sensitivity and repayment ability. Through studying the feasibility of Bayanzhuoer 20MWp photovoltaic power station project, the paper can provide an important basis for other similar research and has important theoretical and realistic significance. Keywords: PV power station, investment, feasibility, economic evaluationIII 目 录 摘要......................................................................................................................... I ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................... II 第 1 章 绪 论 .............................................................................................................1 1.1 报告的研究背景及意义.......................................... 1 1.1.1 研究背景....................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义....................................................................................................1 1.2 国内外研究现状................................................ 2 1.2.1 国外研究现状 ............................................................................................2 1.2.2 国内研究现状 ............................................................................................3 1.3 报告的研究思路和主要内容...................................... 4 第 2 章 项目可行性研究和投资决策理论概述 ........................................................6 2.1 项目可行性研究理论概述........................................ 6 2.1.1 项目可行性研究的概念 .............................................................................6 2.1.2 可行性研究的作用 .....................................................................................6 2.1.3 可行性研究的阶段 .....................................................................................7 2.1.4 可行性研究的特点 .....................................................................................8 2.2 投资决策相关理论.............................................. 8 2.2.1 财务盈利能力 .............................................................................................8 2.2.2 清偿能力分析指标 .....................................................................................9 2.2.3 抵御风险能力 ..........................................................................................10 2.3 本章小结..................................................... 10 第 3 章 内蒙古巴彦淖尔 20MWP 光伏电站项目概况 ...........................................11 3.1 项目的工程概况............................................... 11 3.1.1 太阳能电池组件及箱式变压器基础工程 ............................................... 11 3.1.2 太阳能电池组件及箱式变压器设备安装 ...............................................12 3.1.3 升压站主要建筑物施工和电气设备安装 ................................................12 3.2 项目的主要技术参数 ........................................... 13 3.2.1 电气一次...................................................................................................13IV 3.2.2 电气二次...................................................................................................17 3.3 基于灰色模型的年上网电量预测 ................................. 20 3.3.1 灰色预测模型的构建 ...............................................................................20 3.3.2 年上网电量预测 .......................................................................................21 3.4 本章小结 ..................................................... 22 第 4 章 巴彦淖尔光伏电站建设与运行环境分析 ..................................................23 4.1 系统概况 ..................................................... 23 4.2 地质环境..................................................... 23 4.3 气象条件..................................................... 24 4.3.1 气象资料统计分析 ...................................................................................24 4.3.2 特殊气象条件对光伏电站影响分析........................................................25 4.4 太阳能资源概况 ............................................... 26 4.4.1 区域太阳能资源概况 ...............................................................................26 4.4.2 代表气象站选择 .......................................................................................26 4.4.3 代表气象站辐射数据 ...............................................................................26 4.5 太阳能电池组件选择 ........................................... 27 4.5.1 太阳电池类型的选择 ...............................................................................27 4.5.2 多晶硅太阳能电池选型 ...........................................................................27 4.6 本章小结 ..................................................... 28 第 5 章 内蒙古巴彦淖尔 20MWP 光伏电站项目经济评价 ...................................29 5.1 投资估算..................................................... 29 5.1.1 项目概况..................................................................................................29 5.1.2 项目投资..................................................................................................29 5.2 财务评价..................................................... 30 5.2.1 资金筹措..................................................................................................30 5.2.2 发电总成本费用 ......................................................................................30 5.2.3 上网电价及发电效益计算 ......................................................................31 5.2.4 盈利能力分析 ..........................................................................................31 5.2.5 敏感性分析 ..............................................................................................32 5.2.6 清偿能力分析 ..........................................................................................33 5.3 本章小结..................................................... 39 第 6 章 结论与展望 .................................................................................................40V