最近几年,我国房地产行业的发展已经引起了世界的关注，房地产行业已经在 我国国民经济发展中扮演着十分重要的角色。我国市场经济如今发展地十分迅速, 房地产投资活动也因此变得日益活跃,随之而来的房地产市场竞争也越来越激烈, 从而导致房地产开发的规模逐渐增大，开发过程中所面临的市场状况也变得复杂起 来。房地产开发类型的选择是项目开发中最为基础，也最为重要的环节，所以，对 开发项目可行性的分析成为房地产开发方取胜的关键。控制投资的风险、得到合理 的回报的先决条件就是要在房地产项目开发之前做出科学合理的经济分析。 房地产行业里的重点研究领域就是怎样在多个可供选择的项目中进行综合地 评价选优，怎样对选中的项目进行全面地分析和评价该项目是否可行。因此,研究 如何构建一套科学、合理的房地产开发项目的指标体系和方法具有重要的现实意 义。并且，重视并研究房地产开发活动中的可行性，是理论界和实业界所面临的重 要问题。 本文正是基于这个出发点，了解房地产开发企业投资的相关概念, 掌握房地产 开发项目经济评价的基本方法。针对房地产项目开发可能存在的问题,站在房地产 开发商的立场，立足于某一具体的房地产开发项目，具有针对性的对我国房地产开 发活动中对投资有影响的财务因素进行估算，分析并研究了项目开发过程中涉及到 的财务指标,对房地产项目开发方法是否可行进行了一定的探讨和研究。通过对范 阳项目的投资估算、收入估算和各项财务指标的评价分析,论证了范阳项目的财务 分析的可行性。根据对项目开发和预期财务收益的经济评估,对项目财务可行性研 究过程的系统分析，得出该项目是否可行的结论，并对项目风险控制提出建议和解 决办法,为房地产企业进行开发项目财务可行性研究提供理论依据，形成完善的房 地产项目开发财务可行性研究的理论框架和实践基础。 关键字，财务可行性研究 投资估算 财务指标 财务风险II ABSTRACT In recent years, the development of China's real estate industry has caught the world's attention, the real estate industry has become an important part of China's economic development plays a very important role in the national economy. Along with the development of market economy in China, real estate investment activities have become increasingly active, and the existence of the real estate market is also increasingly fierce competition, the real estate development increases day by day, facing in the process of developing the market situation has become increasingly complex. Real estate development type selection is the basis for the project development, also is the most important link, therefore, analysis of the development of the feasibility of the project become the key to real estate development Party win. Analysis of scientific and reasonable economy before the real estate project development is a prerequisite to control investment risk to get a reasonable return. How to analyze and evaluate the feasibility of real estate projects, how to carry out the comprehensive evaluation in multiple alternative projects election,an important area of research is still in real estate industry. Therefore, has the important practical significance index system and the method on how to construct a scientific, reasonable real estate development project. Also, pay attention to and the feasibility research of the real estate development activities, is an important problem faced by academic and industrial circles. This article is based on this starting point, aims at the real estate project development, starting from the real estate developers perspective, the real estate development projects as the basis, a clear concept of investment in real estate development enterprises, analyzes the development of financial feasibility study of financial feasibility study meaning and the significance and the domestic real estate development projects, and master the basic methods for the economic evaluation of real estate development project. Taking the ZZ project as a specific instance of a more targeted analysis of financial factors in the development of China's real estate activities， analysis on the main factors affecting the project development, construction of the realIII estate development indicators set, and the development of real estate projects were discussed and research.Through the assessment of ZZ project investment estimation, revenue estimating and analyzing financial indicators, demonstrates the feasibility of the analysis of ZZ project finance. According to the economic evaluation of project development and expected financial income, the analysis and Research on the financial feasibility of the project, the project is the project is feasible and the project risk control recommendations and measures, a comprehensive analysis of the real estate project development project development project financial feasibility study form the theoretical frame work of system of financial feasibility study of real estate development project. Key words: Financial feasibility analysis Investment estimation Financial indicators Financial riskIV 目 录 摘要.....................................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT ......................................................................................................................II 绪 论.................................................................................................................................1 0.1 研究背景、意义及目的 ......................................................................................1 0.1.1 研究背景 .....................................................................................................1 0.1.2 研究意义及目的 .........................................................................................1 0.2 研究思路及方法 ..................................................................................................2 0.2.1 研究思路 .....................................................................................................2 0.2.2 研究方法 .....................................................................................................2 0.2.3 结构框架及内容 .........................................................................................3 1 相关基本理论和研究方法 .............................................................................................4 1.1 房地产开发项目财务可行性概述 ......................................................................4 1.1.1 财务可行性的含义 .....................................................................................4 1.1.2 财务可行性的作用 .....................................................................................4 1.2 房地产开发项目经济评价的基本方法 ..............................................................5 1.2.1 静态盈利能力指标及其计算方法 .............................................................5 1.2.2 动态盈利能力指标及其计算方法 .............................................................6 1.2.3 清偿能力指标及其计算方法 .....................................................................7 1.2.4 不确定性分析的方法 .................................................................................8 2 范阳开发项目背景 .........................................................................................................9 2.1 Z 公司简介 ...........................................................................................................9 2.1.1 运营业绩 .....................................................................................................9 2.1.2 财务实力 .....................................................................................................9 2.1.3 范阳项目公司 .............................................................................................9 2.2 范阳开发项目背景及概况 ................................................................................10 2.2.1 ZZ 市房地产情况 .......................................................................................10 2.2.2 开发项目背景 ...........................................................................................10 2.2.3 开发项目概况 ...........................................................................................10 3 开发项目估算 ...............................................................................................................12 3.1 成本估算 ............................................................................................................12 3.1.1 项目土地费用估算 ...................................................................................12 3.1.2 项目建设施工成本估算 ...........................................................................13 3.1.3 其他费用估算 ...........................................................................................13 3.2 资金筹措计划 ....................................................................................................15 3.2.1 资金使用计划 ...........................................................................................15 3.2.2 资金筹集计划 ...........................................................................................15 3.3 销售收入估算 ....................................................................................................17 3.3.1 当地商品住宅销售收入情况 ...................................................................17 3.3.2 当地商业地产销售收入情况 ...................................................................20 3.3.3 综合销售收入估算 ...................................................................................22V 3.4 税务分析...........................................................................................................23 3.4.1 销售税金及附加 .......................................................................................23 3.4.2 土地增值税 ...............................................................................................23 4 项目财务评价 ...............................................................................................................25 4.1 基本财务预测报表...........................................................................................25 4.1.1 项目利润预测表 ........................................................................................25 4.1.2 项目资产负债预测表 ................................................................................25 4.1.3 项目现金流量预测表 ...............................................................................26 4.2 盈利能力评价 ....................................................................................................27 4.2.1 静态财务指标评价 ...................................................................................28 4.2.2 动态财务指标评价 ...................................................................................29 4.3 偿债能力分析 ....................................................................................................31 4.3.1 借款偿还期 ...............................................................................................31 4.3.2 资产负债率 ...............................................................................................32 5 财务风险分析及应对措施 ...........................................................................................34 5.1 项目不确定性分析 ............................................................................................34 5.1.1 盈亏平衡分析 ...........................................................................................34 5.1.2 敏感性分析 ...............................................................................................35 5.1.3 临界点分析 ...............................................................................................37 5.1.4 概率分析 ...................................................................................................38 5.2 风险分析 ............................................................................................................39 5.2.1 项目筹资风险 ...........................................................................................39 5.2.2 项目投资估算风险 ...................................................................................39 5.2.3 项目开发风险 ...........................................................................................39 5.2.4 项目运营风险 ...........................................................................................40 5.3 风险防范措施 ....................................................................................................40 5.3.1 项目筹资风险的防范措施 .......................................................................40 5.3.2 项目投资风险的防范措施 .......................................................................40 5.3.3 项目开发风险的防范措施 .......................................................................41 5.3.4 项目运营风险的防范措施 .......................................................................41 6 项目财务可行性研究的结论 .......................................................................................43 6.1 财务可行性研究结论 ........................................................................................43 6.2 财务可行性研究建议与展望 ............................................................................43