财务预警研究开始于 20 世纪 30 年代，财务比率能够有效识别企业的财务
状况，在以前的研究中，学者通常采用企业的绩效指标来判断企业的财务状况，
认为企业的盈利水平不足是导致企业发生财务危机的主要原因。但是，市场中
存在一个矛盾的现象，财务危机企业能够在财务报表中表现出良好的盈利水平，
但其现金流量往往会出现负值。仅仅依据企业的绩效水平来判断企业的财务状
况可能会导致财务预警失真，可能会给企业带来严重的财务损失，而自由现金
流量指标能够弥补绩效指标的不足，因此，本文在房地产企业的预警指标体系
中引入了自由现金流量，能够更为准确的进行企业财务预警
对房地产企业自身特点进行了研究之后，建立了基于自由现金流量的财务
预警指标体系，利用主成分分析和 Logistic 回归分析的方法构建我国基于自由现
金流量的房地产企业财务预警模型，主要分为以下七个部分：
第一部分为绪论部分。这一部分首先分析了选题的背景及意义，对本文的
研究内容、研究方法予以说明，对国内外相关研究成果进行综述，分析本文可
能的创新点
第二部分对我国房地产企业的概况和财务风险进行了分析，分析了我国房
地产企业的特点和发展现状
第三部分为自由现金流量、企业财务预警的理论基础。对自由现金流量、
企业财务预警的概念及理论进行了综述，为自由现金流量财务预警的研究提供
了理论基础，并对自由现金流量应用于财务预警研究的优越性进行了总结
第四部分为基于自由现金流量财务预警指标体系的设计。这一部分结合房
地产企业的特点，识别出房地产企业的主要财务风险，建立了能够有效对房地
产企业进行预警的财务指标体系和非财务指标体系。第五部分为基于自由现金流量的房地产预警模型的构建，首先对指标进行
筛选，利用 SPSS 22.0 软件对所有指标进行正态分布检验、T 检验和非参数检验，
筛选出显著性较高的指标。利用主成分分析和 Logistic 回归分析的方法进行拟
合，建立了房地产企业的财务预警模型。再进行拟合优度检验、模型系数检验
和原始样本回判检验对 Logistic 财务预警模型进行预警效果检验
第六部分为结论与展望。对本文的研究进行总结，并提出本研究的不足之
处以及展望
关键词：自由现金流量；房地产企业；财务预警；主成分分析法；Logistic
回归分析Abstract
The economic globalization intensifies the market environment, can maintain the
healthy operation of the financial situation of enterprises, can help enterprises to get a
seat in the market, improve the market competitiveness. Therefore, the financial early
warning for enterprises has an important role. The real estate industry is a pillar
industry, the real estate enterprise&39;s operation status is related to the effective
operation of the entire national economy, so the real estate industry&39;s financial early
warning research is particularly important.
Study on early warning of financial crisis began in 1930s, financial ratios can
effectively identify the financial situation of enterprises, in previous studies, scholars
usually use the corporate performance indicators to judge the financial situation of the
enterprise, that enterprise&39;s profit level is insufficient is the main cause of enterprise
financial crisis. However, there is a contradictory phenomenon in the market, the
financial crisis enterprises in the financial statements to show a good level of
profitability, but the cash flow tends to be negative. Only on the basis of the
performance level of the enterprise to determine the enterprise&39;s financial situation
may lead to distortion of financial early-warning, may bring serious financial losses
to the enterprise, insufficient, and free cash flow index can compensate for the
performance result, based on the real estate early-warning refers to the free cash flow
into the standard system, can provide a more accurate the enterprise financial early
warning.
After the real estate enterprise&39;s own characteristics are studied, establish the
financial early-warning index system based on free cash flow method, principal
component analysis and Logistic regression analysis using the construction of China&39;s
free cash flow of real estate enterprise financial early-warning model based on,
mainly divided into the following seven parts:
The first part is the introduction part. This part first analyzes the background and
significance of the topic, the research content of this paper, research methods aredescribed, the relevant research results at home and abroad are reviewed, the
analysis of this paper may be the innovation point.
The second part analyzes the general situation of the real estate enterprises and
the financial risks of our country, and analyzes the characteristics and development of
the real estate enterprises in China.
The third part is the theoretical basis of free cash flow, corporate financial
warning. The concept and theory of free cash flow, corporate financial early-warning
is reviewed, provides a theoretical foundation for the study of financial early-warning
of free cash flow, and the superiority of the free cash flow is applied to the study of
financial early-warning are summarized.
The fourth part is the design of the financial early warning indicator system
based on free cash flow. This part combines the characteristics of real estate
enterprises, identifies the main financial risks of real estate enterprises, and
establishes the financial index system and non financial index system which can
effectively carry out the early warning of real estate enterprises.
The fifth part is the construction of real estate early-warning model based on free
cash flow, the indicators were selected by using SPSS 22.0 software for all indexes of
normal distribution test, T test and non parametric test, screening index was
significantly higher. By means of principal component analysis and Logistic
regression analysis, the financial early-warning model of real estate enterprises was
established. Then the goodness of fit test, the model coefficient test and the original
sample regression test were used to test the Logistic financial early-warning model.
The sixth part is the conclusion and prospect. The research of this paper is
summarized, and the deficiencies and prospects of the research are put forward.
Keywords: Free cash flow, Real estate enterprises, Financial early warning ,
Principal component analysis (pca), Logistic regression analysisI
目 录
第一章 绪论........ 1
一、研究背景及意义...........1
（一）研究背景...........1
（二）研究意义...........2
二、国内外研究文献综述...2
（一）财务预警国内外研究现状.......3
（二）自由现金流量国内外研究现状...........5
三、研究方法...........6
四、可能的创新点...7
第二章 我国房地产企业概况及财务风险分析.... 8
一、房地产企业定义、发展现状...8
（一）房地产企业定义.......8
（二）房地产企业发展现状...........8
二、房地产企业的行业特点及财务风险...9
（一）房地产企业行业特点...........9
（二）房地产企业的财务风险.....10
第三章 基于自由现金流量的房地产企业财务预警基础理论... 13
一、自由现金流量相关理论.........13
二、财务预警相关理论.....14
（一）财务风险及财务危机.........14
（二）财务预警概念及作用......
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