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MBA论文_基于上市公司去杠杆政策实施效果研究

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摘要
伴随我国经济增速放缓、债务规模扩张,由此带来的风险隐患引起了国家有
关部门以及学者的重点关注。在“去杠杆、稳增长”的政策要求下,促使宏观杠
杆率和企业微观杠杆率保持在一定的合理范围内,以降低过高的杠杆率可能带来
的风险,已成为社会的普遍共识。对微观企业而言,因迫于“去杠杆”政策的压
力,往往会通过调整内部债务与股权结构,来达到去杠杆要求,进而影响其财务
绩效的变化。为了探究“去杠杆”政策的实施效果,本文选择从微观企业视角出
发,基于“去杠杆”和“稳增长”的双重考虑,从企业杠杆率和财务绩效两方面
开展研究。
鉴于双重差分法(DID)能够根据政策实施前后,处理组与对照组之间的差
别对政策效果进行评价,能够较好地避免内生性问题,而且从中能够分离出政策
给企业带来的真实影响,使政策效应的评估更可靠。因此,本文在研究“去杠杆”
政策的实施效果时,引入该方法对研究问题进行分析。首先,选取我国沪深 A股
上市公司 2013-2019年的数据作为研究样本,利用双重差分模型,结合杠杆率与
财务绩效这两方面内容,来评估“去杠杆”政策在上市公司的实施效果,验证该
政策的实施是否既能降低企业的杠杆率同时还能让企业实现稳增长,从而达成
“去杠杆、稳增长”的双重目标。其次,考虑产权性质存在异质性,论证了不同
产权性质企业因“去杠杆”政策实施而产生的效果差异。结果表明:(1)“去杠
杆”政策的实施一方面能够降低企业过高的杠杆率,进而降低财务风险;另一方
面还能提高企业的财务绩效。即从微观企业层面看,“去杠杆”政策的实施有助
于促使企业实现去杠杆和稳增长的双重目标。(2)由于产权性质的异质性,相比
于国有企业,“去杠杆”政策对非国有企业降低杠杆率的效果更显著;而该政策
对国有企业财务绩效的提升作用要优于非国有企业。
关键词:去杠杆,去杠杆政策,财务绩效,双重差分法
II

Abstract
With the slowdown of China's economic growth and the expansion of debt scale,
the risks and hidden dangers brought by this have also attracted the attention of relevant
national departments and scholars. Under the policy requirements of "deleveraging and
stable growth", it has become a general consensus of the society to keep both macro
leverage ratio and enterprise micro leverage ratio within a reasonable range so as to
reduce the risks caused by excessive leverage ratio. For micro enterprises, under the
pressure of "deleveraging" policy, they often adjust their internal debt and equity
structure to meet the requirements of deleveraging, thus affecting their financial
performance. In order to explore the implementation effect of "deleveraging" policy,
this paper chooses to study the leverage ratio and financial performance of enterprises
from the perspective of micro enterprises based on the dual considerations of
"deleveraging" and "stable growth".
The difference in difference method (DID) can evaluate the effect of policies
according to the differences between the treatment group and the control group before
and after the implementation of policies, and can better avoid endogenous problems,
separate the real impact of policies on enterprises, and make the evaluation of policy
effects more reliable. Therefore, this paper introduces this method to analyze this
problem when studying the implementation effect of "deleveraging" policy. First of all,
the data of China's Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies from 2013 to 2019
are selected as research samples, and the difference in difference model is used to
evaluate the implementation effect of "deleveraging" policy on listed companies in
combination with leverage ratio and financial performance, to verify whether the
implementation of the policy can not only reduce the leverage ratio of enterprises but
also enable enterprises to achieve stable growth. Thus achieving the dual goals of
"deleveraging and steady growth". Secondly, considering the heterogeneity of property
rights, it demonstrates the different effects of deleveraging policies on enterprises with
different property rights. Results show that: (1) the implementation of the policy of
"deleveraging" on the one hand can reduce the enterprise high leverage, to reduce
financial risk; On the other hand can also improve the financial performance of
enterprises. That is, from the micro enterprise level, the implementation of
"deleveraging" policy helps enterprises to achieve the dual goals of deleveraging and
stable growth. (2) Due to the heterogeneity of property rights, deleveraging policy has
a more significant effect on reducing leverage ratio of non-state-owned enterprises than
III
。。。以下略