“1+X”证书制度是教育部 2019 年首次在高等职业技术学院试点实施的职业教育 领域改革创新探索项目，笔者所在工作单位—L 高等职业技术学院（下简称“L 高职”） 是试点单位之一，笔者作为主要成员参与了本校该项目的策划、申报及实施。从教育 部审批的实施方案来看，该项目资金投入大、周期跨度长、涉及人员多、不确定因素 多；如果项目成功实现预期，对高职院校、培养的学生、用人单位都将产生持续、广 泛、深刻的积极影响。由于目前我国整个“1+X”证书制度只在试点实施，只有比较原 则的文件指导，缺乏实践借鉴，对项目运作的认识还不够系统、全面、深入等原因， 从项目实施近一年时间来看，有些事前尚未预计到的因素先后出现、而且实施推进过 程还面临不少不确定因素。按照风险管理的一般理论，项目实现预期存在一定的风险。 论文以 L 高职为背景、以“1+X”试点项目为研究对象，就项目的风险管理展开了 相关研究。首先是项目管理理论在“1+X”试点项目实施过程中应用的可行性论证，同 时确定后续研究使用的风险识别方法、风险测度方法和风险控制的一般过程，并从国 内和国外两个方面对高校教育项目风险评估的现状进行了评述；其次以 L 高职为例， 采用头脑风暴法和德尔菲法对本项目进行风险识别，通过识别风险来源、确定风险发 生条件、描述风险特征并评价风险影响的过程来对项目风险进行分析评价，并结合多 层次模糊综合评价法评估项目总体风险水平、明确风险因素的排序；最后根据评价结 果，提出了控制“1+X”试点项目风险的应对方案以及方案实施的保障措施。 论文对风险管理理论运用到“1+X”试点项目进行了探索，以 L 高职为例，识别出 政策风险、管理风险、资金风险、人员风险和质量风险五大类 21 个风险因素，确定 项目综合风险得分 6.171，属于“中等”程度，明确准则层风险排序为：质量风险最高， 其次为资金风险、人员风险、管理风险、政策风险。针对评价结果，提出了控制“1+X” 试点项目风险的应对方案以及方案实施的保障措施，确保 L 高职“1+X”试点项目顺利 达成预期目标。同时本文力求阐述风险管理理论和方法在“1+X”试点项目风险管理中 的应用，在实践上也为后续“1+X”试点项目院校实施风险管理提供参考。 关键词：高职教育；“1+X”试点项目；风险管理Ⅱ Abstract The "1+X" certificate system is the first reform and innovation exploration project in the field of higher vocational education implemented by the Ministry of education in 2019. L Higher Vocational College (hereinafter referred to as "l Higher Vocational College") is one of the pilot units in which the author participated in the planning, application and implementation of the project as the main member. From the perspective of the implementation plan approved by the Ministry of education, the project has a large capital investment, a long cycle span, a large number of personnel involved, and many uncertain factors. If the project succeeds in achieving the expectations, it will have a sustained, extensive and profound positive impact on vocational colleges, trained students, and employers. At present, the whole "1+X" certificate system in China is only implemented on a pilot basis, only under the guidance of comparative principle documents, lack of practical reference, and lack of systematic, comprehensive and in-depth understanding of project operation. In the past year of project implementation, some factors that have not been foreseen in advance appear successively, and there are still many uncertain factors in the process of project implementation. According to the general theory of risk management, there are certain risks in the realization of the project expectation. Taking l Higher Vocational College as the background and "1+X" pilot project as the research object, this paper studies the risk management of the project. The first is the feasibility demonstration of the application of project management theory in the implementation of "1+X" pilot project. At the same time, it determines the risk identification method, risk measurement method and general process of risk control used in the follow-up research. At the same time, it reviews the current situation of University education project risk assessment from both domestic and foreign aspects. Secondly, combined with the general situation and problems of "1+X" project, it takes L Taking higher vocational education as an example, according to the previous literature research, we use brainstorming method and Delphi method to identify the risk of this project, analyze and evaluate the project risk by identifying the risk source, determining the risk occurrence conditions, describing the risk characteristics and evaluating the process of risk impact, andⅢ identify the overall risk level of the project and the sequence of risk factors by combining the multi-level fuzzy comprehensive evaluation Then, taking l Higher Vocational College as an example, the paper puts forward the countermeasures to control the risk of "1+X" pilot project and the safeguard measures to implement the scheme. This paper explores the application of risk management theory to the "1+X" pilot project. Taking L Higher Vocational College as an example, it identifies 21 risk factors in five categories: policy risk, management risk, capital risk, personnel risk and quality risk, and determines that the comprehensive risk score of the project is 6.171, which belongs to the "medium" level. It is clear that the risk ranking of the criteria level is: the highest quality risk, followed by capital risk Personnel risk, management risk and policy risk. According to the evaluation results, this paper puts forward the countermeasures to control the risk of "1+X" pilot project and the safeguard measures to ensure that the "1+X" pilot project of L higher vocational education can achieve the expected goal smoothly. At the same time, this paper tries to elaborate the application of risk management theory and method in the "1+X" pilot project risk management, and also provides reference for the follow-up "1+X" pilot project colleges to implement risk management in practice. Key words ： Higher Vocational Education;"1+X" certificate pilot project; Risk managementV 目 录 第一章 绪论..1 1.1 研究背景.............................1 1.2 研究意义.............................4 1.2.1 理论意义.......................4 1.2.2 实践意义.......................5 1.3 研究思路、内容及框架.....5 1.3.1 研究思路.......................5 1.3.2 研究内容.......................6 1.3.3 论文框架.......................7 1.4 研究方法.............................8 1.5 文献综述.............................8 1.5.1 国外研究现状...............9 1.5.2 国内研究现状.............10 1.5.3 国内外研究述评.........10 本章小结..12 第二章 “1+X”试点项目风险管理概述与文献综述 ........................13 2.1 高职教育与“1+X”证书制度............................13 2.1.1 高职教育.....................13 2.1.2“1+X”证书制度...........14 2.1.3 职业教育“1+X”证书制度与双证书制度的区别....................14 2.2 项目与“1+X”试点项目.....14 2.2.1 项目与“1+X”试点项目的定义.................14 2.2.2“1+X”试点项目的特点..............................15 2.3 风险与“1+X”试点项目风险............................16 2.3.1 风险与“1+X”试点项目风险的定义.........16 2.3.2 风险管理与“1+X”试点项目风险管理.....18 2.4 项目风险管理的一般过程与内容..................18 2.4.1 风险识别.....................18VI 2.4.2 风险分析.....................19 2.4.3 风险评估.....................19 2.4.4 风险应对.....................20 2.4.5 风险监控.....................20 本章小结..20 第三章 “1+X”试点项目的基本情况.......................21 3.1“1+X”试点项目的概况......21 3.1.1 试点项目进展.............21 3.1.2 项目建设思路.............21 3.1.3 项目建设主要内容.....22 3.2 项目经费来源...................24 3.3“1+X”试点项目目前面临问题.........................24 本章小结..26 第四章 “1+X”试点项目风险识别与分析-以 L 高职为例....................27 4.1 案例概况...........................27 4.1.1L 高职概况..................27 4.1.2L 高职“1+X”试点项目概况.......................27 4.1.3 案例选择原则.............27 4.2“1+X”试点项目风险的识别.............................29 4.2.1“1+X”试点项目风险识别的方法..............29 4.2.2“1+X”试点项目风险识别的步骤..............29