I 摘要 自2013年开始，伴随着国家支持政策措施的出台和城市现代运营管理的需要， 我国地下综合管廊迎来了建设热潮。地下综合管廊的建设将有效防止道路重复开 挖、减少内涝发生和提升城市承载能力。然而地下综合管廊建设耗资较大，完全 依靠地方财政资金不能满足建设需求。随着国家对地方政府隐性负债的清理，通 过地方政府融资平台向银行贷款获取资金的传统模式已被列入负面清单。近些年， 国家积极引导社会资本通过PPP(Public-Private Partnership)模式参与地下综合管廊 建设。如何对PPP项目的风险有效识别和管控，成为社会资本方、金融机构、政 府部门等相关机构面临的首要问题。 首先本文简要阐述了研究背景和意义，梳理了国内外研究热点和现状，提出 本文的研究内容、方法、技术路线和创新之处；其次对PPP模式、项目风险管理 等进行了归纳，分析了PPP项目风险管理的过程，介绍了识别、评价的方法和工 具；紧接着对我国地下综合管廊的建设历程和国内外发展模式进行了回顾总结， 并就C市地下综合管廊PPP项目相关情况进行了详细介绍；然后对案例的风险因 素开展识别，分别运用层次分析法和模糊综合评价法对C市地下综合管廊PPP项 目的各风险因素权重和等级进行了分析评价；最后根据风险评价结果提出了应对 措施。 目前，学者对PPP模式的风险研究大多是采用理论模型+实证研究方式来进行， 对案例研究相对较少。本文研究的背景是我国PPP模式进入相对成熟运行阶段。 研究的案例是财政部第四批示范项目，具有一定的典型性和代表性。对C市地下 综合管廊PPP项目开展风险管理分析研究并提出应对措施，为后续地下综合管廊 PPP项目可持续发展提供参考。 关键词：PPP项目 模糊层次分析法 风险管理 案例分析 ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT Since 2013, together with the governments supported policy and the modern city operation management’s requirement, many cities accelerate the development of the underground integrated pipe gallery construction. Pipe gallery constructions can not only solve the problem of repeated excavation and waterlogging, but also elevate the city capacity. Because of large prior-period investment of underground integrated pipe gallery construction, the local governments will face the capital shortage and meanwhile they are hard to get bank loan. Social capital are encouraged to join in these pipe gallery constructions. But how to identify/ evaluate/ cope with the risks become the primary problems which social capital company/ finance organization/ government should face. In this paper, firstly it introduces the research background, practical significance and research status, and elaborates the research contents, science line and innovation points. Secondly, by sorting and conclusion the PPP(Public-Private Partnership) model and project risk management, it analyze the PPP project management process, introduce the and tools of the identification and evaluation; Then reviewed the China underground integrated pipe gallery construction history and foreign country develop models, emphatically introduce related situation about the PPP project of underground integrated pipe gallery in C city and identify risk of C city case, use AHP to work out the weightage of each risk, use FCE to evaluate the risk level, and finally proposed the action plan. At present, most academicians risk research on PPP models are based on theoretical models & empirical analysis, and there are few case studies. This paper’s case is one of the 4th batch of demonstrative projects of China Ministry of Finance ， China PPP model is mature. To research on its risks and put forward action plan, can be good reference for the sustainable development of future underground integrated pipe gallery construction. Key words: PPP project FAHP Risk management Case analysis 目录 III 目录 第一章 绪论 .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 研究背景和意义 ................................................................................................ 1 1.1.1 研究背景 ................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 研究意义 ................................................................................................ 2 1.2 文献综述 ............................................................................................................ 2 1.2.1 国外研究概述 ........................................................................................ 2 1.2.2 国内研究概述 ........................................................................................ 3 1.2.3 研究述评 ................................................................................................ 4 1.3 研究内容与方法 ................................................................................................ 5 1.3.1 研究内容 ................................................................................................ 5 1.3.2 研究方法 ................................................................................................ 5 1.4 研究技术路线 .................................................................................................... 5 1.5 创新之处 ............................................................................................................ 6 第二章 PPP项目风险管理相关理论 ............................................................................ 7 2.1 PPP模式概述 ..................................................................................................... 7 2.1.1 PPP模式的理论基础 ............................................................................. 7 2.1.2 PPP模式相关概念辨析 ......................................................................... 8 2.1.3 PPP模式的分类 ..................................................................................... 9 2.1.4 PPP模式国内外发展回顾 ................................................................... 10 2.2 项目风险管理 .................................................................................................. 12 2.2.1 项目风险概述 ...................................................................................... 12 2.2.2 项目风险管理概念 .............................................................................. 12 2.2.3 项目风险管理原则 .............................................................................. 13 2.2.4 项目风险管理过程 .............................................................................. 13 2.3 PPP项目的风险特征和分类 ........................................................................... 13 2.3.1 PPP项目风险的特征 ........................................................................... 13 2.3.2 PPP项目风险的分类 ........................................................................... 14 2.4 PPP项目的风险管理过程和方法 ................................................................... 14 2.4.1 PPP项目的风险识别 ........................................................................... 15 2.4.2 PPP项目的风险评价 ........................................................................... 15 目录 IV 2.4.3 PPP项目的风险应对 ........................................................................... 15 第三章 C市地下综合管廊PPP项目介绍 .................................................................. 17 3.1 地下综合管廊国内外建设情况 ...................................................................... 17 3.1.1 地下综合管廊发展历程 ...................................................................... 17 3.1.2 地下综合管廊相关政策梳理 .............................................................. 18 3.1.3 地下综合管廊建设面临问题 .............................................................. 20 3.2 C市地下综合管廊PPP项目情况 .................................................................. 21 3.2.1 项目建设背景 ...................................................................................... 21 3.2.2 项目建设内容与规模 .......................................................................... 21 3.2.3 项目运作模式 ...................................................................................... 22 3.2.4 项目PPP合同协议分析 ..................................................................... 24 3.3 项目存在问题和研究必要性分析 ...................