高速公路是社会先行资本，其建设极大地促进了交通运输业和我国国民经济的发 展，提高了人们的生活水平。但由于高速公路的规模化和网络化、经营企业本身的专业 性和复杂性、以及“治理体系和治理能力现代化”和“交通强国”等概念的提出，势必 会给高速公路经营企业带来更为复杂的运营环境，使得企业运营风险不断增大，风险决 策也更为艰难，因此本文从我国高速公路经营企业在运营过程中存在的风险因素进行分 析，构建以风险预警为核心的风险管理体系，以提高高速公路经营企业的风险管理水平， 降低运营风险。 本文以高速公路经营企业为研究对象，以风险管理理论、企业风险管理理论、预警 理论和控制理论为理论基础，综合运用文献研究、层次分析和实证分析等多种研究方法， 对高速公路经营企业运营风险预警与控制进行研究。首先通过对高速公路经营企业的经 营目标和经营特征进行分析，识别企业在运营过程中面临的风险因素并构建风险预警指 标体系。其次基于灰色预测模型，构建高速公路经营企业运营风险预警模型，并通过实 证研究验证模型的适用性。最后从风险应对专项措施和风险控制组织体系两个方面对高 速公路经营企业运营风险进行综合控制。 希望通过本文的研究，可以提高企业风险管理水平，为企业的科学决策提供指导， 促使企业运营管理稳步发展，从而提高运营效益。 关键词：高速公路经营企业，风险预警，灰色预测模型，风险控制 II Abstract Theexpresswayisthefirstcapitalofsociety,anditsconstructionhasgreatlypromoted thedevelopmentofthetransportationindustryandChina'snationaleconomy,andimproved people'slivingstandards.However,duetothescaleandnetworkoftheexpressway,the professionalismandcomplexityoftheoperatingenterpriseitself,andtheconceptof "modernizationofgovernancesystemandgovernancecapability"and"trafficpower",itis boundtobringmoreThecomplexoperatingenvironmenthasmadethecompany'soperational risksincreasingandriskdecision-makingmoredifficult.Therefore,thispaperanalyzesthe riskfactorsexistingintheoperationprocessofexpresswayoperatingenterprisesinChina, andconstructsariskmanagementsystemwithriskearly-warningasthecore,soasto improvetheriskmanagementlevelofexpresswayoperatingenterprisesandreduce operationalrisks. Basedontheriskmanagementtheory,enterpriseriskmanagementtheory,early-warning theoryandcontroltheory,thispaperstudiestheoperationriskearly-warningandcontrolof expresswayoperatingenterprisesbymeansofliteratureresearch,AHPandempiricalanalysis. Firstly,throughtheanalysisofthebusinessobjectivesandcharacteristicsofexpressway enterprises,theriskfactorsfacedbytheenterprisesintheoperationprocessareidentifiedand therisk-warningindexsystemisconstructed.Secondly,basedonthegreypredictionmodel, theoperationrisk-warningmodelofexpresswayenterprisesisconstructed,andthe applicabilityofthemodelisverifiedbyempiricalresearch.Finally,fromtheaspectsofrisk responsespecialmeasuresandriskcontrolorganizationsystem,theoperationalrisksof expresswayoperatingenterprisesarecomprehensivelycontrolled. Itishopedthatthestudyofthispapercanimprovethelevelofenterpriserisk management,provideguidanceforthescientificdecision-makingofenterprises,promotethe steadydevelopmentofenterpriseoperationmanagement,andthusimprovetheoperation efficiency. Keywords:Expresswaymanagemententerprise,Riskearly-warning,Greyprediction model,Riskcontrol III 目录 第一章绪论.............................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景与意义.........................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景...........................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究意义...........................................................................................................2 1.2研究综述.....................................................................................................................2 1.2.1风险管理相关研究...........................................................................................2 1.2.2风险预警相关研究...........................................................................................3 1.2.3高速公路风险相关研究...................................................................................5 1.2.4研究评述...........................................................................................................8 1.3研究内容、研究方法及技术路线.............................................................................9 1.3.1研究内容...........................................................................................................9 1.3.2研究方法...........................................................................................................9 1.3.3技术路线.........................................................................................................10 第二章高速公路经营企业运营风险预警与控制理论基础...............................................11 2.1风险管理理论...........................................................................................................11 2.1.1风险.................................................................................................................11 2.1.2风险的特征.....................................................................................................12 2.1.3风险管理.........................................................................................................13 2.1.4风险管理的基本过程.....................................................................................13 2.2企业风险管理理论...................................................................................................14 2.2.1企业风险及其分类.........................................................................................14 2.2.2企业风险管理.................................................................................................14 2.2.3企业风险管理的目标及其组成因素.............................................................14 2.3风险预警理论...........................................................................................................15 2.4风险控制理论...........................................................................................................16 2.5本章小结...................................................................................................................17 第三章高速公路经营企业运营风险识别及预警指标体系构建.......................................18 3.1高速公路经营企业...................................................................................................18 3.1.1高速公路经营企业的概念.............................................................................18 3.1.2高速公路经营企业的经营目标.....................................................................18 3.1.3高速公路经营企业的经营特征.....................................................................19 3.2高速公路经营企业的运营风险识别.......................................................................20 3.2.1风险识别.........................................................................................................20 3.2.2高速公路经营企业运营风险的分类.............................................................21 3.3运营风险预警指标体系的构建...............................................................................22 IV 3.3.1指标体系的构建原则.....................................................................................22 3.3.2高速公路经营企业运营风险预警指标选取.................................................23 3.3.3指标体系的构建.............................................................................................26 3.4本章小结...................................................................................................................28 第四章基于灰色预测的高速公路经营企业运营风险预警模型构建...............................29 4.1灰色系统理论...........................................................................................................29 4.1.1灰色系统理论及灰色预测.............................................................................29 4.1.2灰色预测模型的特点及优势......................................