我国石油化工产业主要围绕资源产区布局，大型石化企业主要集中在东北、西 北、渤海湾等老工业基地及传统产区，但石化基础产品加工和危化品生产大多集中 在东部及沿海地区，最终危化品消费则又分散到全国，“产销分离”决定了危化品物 流运输的需求巨大。然而市场上大多数危化品仓储和运输企业仅能够提供单一的服 务，缺乏提供危化品物流服务的基本专业能力和整体协调策划能力。针对我国危化 品物流行业的现状，国家鼓励危化品物流企业向客户提供全方位的服务，通过整合 上下游资源，从单一业务模式，转向采购、包装、运输、仓储、配送等全产业链服 务，有效打通危化品物流的各个环节，提高物流效率，降低运营成本。 鉴于上述背景，本文通过文献研究法、调查分析法、模型分析法等方法，以本 项目为研究对象，通过内外部环境分析，项目商业模式的设计，投资项目财务可行 性分析，项目投资风险分析等进行分析，探索投资第四方物流平台的可行性。 本文运用了投资项目可行性研究理论、财务可行性分析理论、风险分析理论， 为下文内外部环境分析、项目财务可行性、风险判断提供理论基础。在财务可行性 分析中，通过对项目静态投资回收期、净现值、内部收益率、动态回收期等测算， 进行可行性区间判定，考察和分析项目的盈利能力和财务生存能力，判断项目的财 务可行性，明确项目对财务主体以及对投资者的价值贡献。项目投资风险主要采用 模糊评价法的理论进行分析，利用数学理论中模糊数学的隶属度理论将定性化的评 价转化为定量化的评价，通过模型进行分析得出结论。 Z 融租公司增资入股第四方物流平台公司，不仅在产融协同、“股债联动”、资 产证券化、债权收益等方面获取收益，而且投资项目本身也是可行的。 关键词，第四方物流平台；可行性研究；项目投资Feasibility Study on Z Financial Leasing Company’s Investment in the Fourth Party Logistics Platform II Abstract Petrochemical industry in China is mainly distributed surrounding resource areas. Large-scale petrochemical enterprises primarily concentrate in the northeast, northwest, Bohai Bay, other old industrial bases and traditional producing areas. However, basic petrochemical product processing and hazardous chemicals mostly center in the East and coastlands, and the final consumption of hazardous chemicals is dispersed nationwide. The separation between production and marketing determines a huge request for logistics transportation of hazardous chemicals. However， most of the hazardous chemicals storage enterprises and transportation companies in the market can only provide single service lacking the basic professional ability to offer hazardous chemicals logistics service and the capability to conduct overall coordination and planning. In view of the present situation of domestic hazardous chemicals logistics industry， China encourages the logistics enterprises to provide customers with all-around services， and through the integration of upstream and downstream resources， the previous single model and business will turn to a whole industrial chain service including procurement，packaging， transportation， storage， distribution， as well as recovery， etc.， thus effectively getting through all links of hazardous chemicals logistics， improving logistics efficiency， and reducing operating costs. Given the above background， this paper， through research methods such as literature research， investigation analysis， and model analysis， took this project as the research object to conduct a comprehensive analysis by employing internal and external environment analysis， project business model design， financial feasibility analysis of the investment project， along with project investment risk analysis，thus exploring the fourth party logistics platform. The paper applies investment project feasibility study theory, financial feasibilityFeasibility Study on Z Financial Leasing Company’s Investment in the Fourth Party Logistics Platform III analysis theory and risk analysis theory to lay a theoretical foundation for internal and external circumstance analysis, project financial feasibility, and risk judgment in the following text. In the financial feasibility analysis, by means of estimating project’s static investment recovery period, net present value, internal rate of return, dynamic payback period, etc, it proceeds with feasibility interval judgment, investigation and analysis of project profitability and financial viability to evaluate the financial feasibility of the project and explicate project’s value contribution to the financial subject and investors. In virtue of analysis on the basis of fuzzy assessment theory, project investment risks adopt the membership of fuzzy mathematics in mathematical theory to convert quantitative assessment into quantitative assessment and draw conclusion through model analysis. Z financial leasing company increases capital investment in the fourth party logistics platform company, which can not only gain benefits from integration of industry and finance, “stock and debt linkage”, asset securitization, and bond yields, but also turns out to be feasible for the investment project itself. Key word: the fourth party logistics platform；feasibility study； project investment；目 录 摘要...................................................I Abstract.................................................II 1 绪论 .................................................1 1.1 研究背景及意义 .................................1 1.2 国内外研究综述 .................................2 1.3 本文研究思路与研究方法 .........................5 2 可行性研究方法与理论 .................................7 2.1 财务可行性分析 .................................7 2.2 风险分析理论与方法 .............................8 3 第四方物流平台概况 ..................................11 3.1 Z 融资租赁公司简介.............................11 3.2 Z 融租公司投资第四方物流平台介绍 ..............11 3.3 第四方物流平台的商业模式 ......................14 4 第四方物流平台可行性分析 ............................20 4.1 项目内外部环境分析 ............................20 4.2 第四方物流平台的财务可行性分析 ................27 4.3 第四方物流平台风险评估 ........................43 5 项目可行性结论及建议 ................................47