摘要
随着第四次工业革命所带来的智能时代的到来，以及数字化浪潮的迅猛发展，
中国面临着机遇和挑战并存的局面。紧跟时代的步伐，实现可持续与高质量发展的
目标对中国而言至关重要。在这一大背景下，研究数字经济如何影响中国经济、能
源和环境系统（简称“3E”系统）的协调发展，显得尤为重要。本文选取了2001年至
2020年中国30个省份的面板数据作为研究基础，首先对相关文献进行了深入梳理，
以探究数字经济对“3E”系统协调发展的内在作用机制。接着，我们构建了一套综合
的指标体系，用以全面评估“3E”系统各个子系统的综合发展水平，并进一步测算了
“3E”系统的整体协调度。
通过细致描述和分析中国数字经济水平和“3E”系统协调度的时空格局，我们揭
示了它们之间的潜在规律和动态演变。随后，我们运用空间杜宾模型，深入研究了
数字经济对中国“3E”系统协调发展的具体影响，并对中国四大经济区域的异质性进
行了详细分析。此外，我们还采用了中介效应模型，以探究中介变量在数字经济对
“3E”系统协调发展影响中所发挥的作用。
实证结果表明：（1）近年来，中国的数字经济水平和“3E”系统协调度均呈现出
稳步上升的趋势，但不同区域之间的发展水平存在显著的差异；（2）数字经济与“3E”
系统协调度之间存在明显的正向空间相关性，这进一步证实了数字经济的发展有助
于促进“3E”系统的协调发展；（3）在数字经济对“3E”系统协调发展的影响研究中，
我们发现中国经济四大区域之间存在一定的异质性，这为我们制定差异化政策提供
了重要依据；（4）产业结构、工业劳动生产率、能源消耗强度、能源结构以及环境
污染排放等因素在数字经济对“3E”系统协调发展的影响中起到了显著的部分中介效
应，为我们提供了优化发展路径的参考。
最后，基于实证研究结果，我们提出了一系列政策建议，包括推进数字化建设、
实现数字产业化和产业数字化的并举发展、加强数字人才培养以及完善相关制度保
障等，以期为中国实现可持续与高质量发展提供有力支撑。
关键词：数字经济、空间杜宾模型、“3E”系统协调度、中介效应模型
Abstract
With the advent of the intelligent era brought about by the Fourth Industrial
Revolution and the rapid development of the digital wave,China is facing both
opportunities and challenges.Keeping up with the pace of the times and achieving the goal
of sustainable and high-quality development is crucial for China.In this context,it is
particularly important to study how the digital economy affects the coordinated
development of China's economic,energy and environmental systems (referred to as the
"3E"system).This paper selects panel data from 30provinces in China from 2001to 2020
as the research basis,and firstly combs the relevant literature in depth to explore the internal
mechanism of the digital economy on the coordinated development of the "3E"system.
Then,we construct a comprehensive index system to comprehensively evaluate the
comprehensive development level of each subsystem of the "3E"system,and further
measure the overall coordination degree of the "3E"system.
By carefully describing and analyzing the spatiotemporal pattern of China's digital
economy level and the coordination degree of the "3E"system,we reveal the underlying
laws and dynamic evolution between them.Subsequently,we use the spatial Durbin model
to study the specific impact of the digital economy on the coordinated development of
China's "3E"system,and make a detailed analysis of the heterogeneity of China's four
major economic regions.In addition,we also use the mediating effect model to explore the
role of mediating variables in the impact of the digital economy on the coordinated
development of the "3E"system.
The empirical results show that:(1)in recent years,the level of China's digital
economy and the coordination degree of the "3E"system have shown a steady upward
trend,but there are significant differences in the development level between different
regions;(2)there is an obvious positive spatial correlation between the coordination degree
of the digital economy and the "3E"system,which further confirms that the development
of the digital economy is conducive to promoting the coordinated development of the "3E"
system;(3)the digital economy has a significant impact on the "3E"system.(4)Factors
such as industrial structure,industrial labor productivity,energy consumption intensity,
energy structure and environmental pollution emissions play a significant role in the impact
of digital economy on the coordinated development of the "3E"system,which provides us
with a reference for optimizing the development path.
Finally,based on the empirical research results,we put forward a series of policy
recommendations,including promoting digital construction,realizing the simultaneous
development of digital industrialization and industrial digitalization,strengthening the
cultivation of digital talents,and improving relevant institutional guarantees,in order to
provide strong support for China's sustainable and high-quality development.
Keywords:digital economy,spatial Durbin model,"3E"system coordination,mediating
effect model
目录
摘要...................................................................................................................................I
Abstract ............................................................................................................................II
1绪论..............................................................................................................................1
1.1研究背景与研究意义........................................................................................1
1.1.1研究背景.........................................................................................................1
1.1.2研究意义.........................................................................................................2
1.2文献综述...................................................................................................................3
1.2.1数字经济的研究............................................................................................3
1.2.2“3E”系统协调度的研究.................................................................................4
1.2.4文献评述........................................................................................................6
1.3基本思路与研究方法..............................................................................................6
1.3.1基本思路........................................................................................................6
1.3.2研究方法与技术路线...................................................................................7
1.4创新点...............................................................................................................8
2数字经济对“3E”系统协调发展的影响机理探析...................................................9
2.1数字经济对“3E”系统协调发展的直接影响................................................9
2.2数字经济对“3E”系统协调发展的间接影响..............................................10
2.2.1数字经济对“3E”系统协调发展的影响机理--基于经济角度................10
2.2.2数字经济对“3E”系统协调发展的影响机理--基于能源角度................11
2.2.3数字经济对“3E”系统协调发展的影响机理--基于环境角度................11
2.3研究假设..........................................................................................................11
3数字经济评估与时空演变特征分析......................................................................13
3.1数字经济代表指标及数据来源...........................................................................13
3.2中国数字经济水平的时空演变特征...................................................................15
3.3本章小结.................................................................................................................18
4“3E”系统协调度评价与时空演变特征分析...........................................................18
4.1“3E”协调度评估指标的建立................................................................................19
4.1.1建立指标体系的原则...................................................................................19
4.1.1指标体系的建立...........................................................................................19
4.23E 系统协调度计算方法..........................................................................................23
4.2.1子系统评价方法.........................................................................................23