近年来，随着城市化进程的推动，城市综合体在我国大量建设，尤其是在 2009 年 后，政府部门加大对房地产市场的政策调控，“城市综合体”因其具备优良资产性、 长期持续经营性也成为各地方政府倡导城市化的主要产品模式。一方面，城市综合体 凭借其集聚人气，活跃商业的集群优势，不仅带动了区域性的经济发展，也增强了城 市竞争力。另一方面，在城市综合体的大量开发背后，还存在着一些问题制约着城市 综合体的发展，一是定位不准确，二是重开发轻运营，三是缺乏高品质产品。针对这 些问题，国内研究如何定位、采取何种运营模式等较多，但系统分析的较少，因此， 针对城市综合体投资开发的可行性研究分析显得十分重要。 本文从城市的发展轨迹着手，通过分析城市综合体的发展背景、发展历程，从城 市发展的历程和城市化的进程来研究城市化对城市综合体发展的影响以及城市综合 体产生的根本原因。通过商业地产与城市综合体之间的比较分析，在前人研究的基础 上，结合作者观点，寻找影响城市综合体开发的因素，通过专家咨询确立主要影响因 素，结合城市综合体的实例分析予以佐证。最后，结合确立的影响因素来分析 2013-G-85 地块（以下简称 G85 地块）的开发。 通过研究，笔者认为影响城市综合体开发的要素主要包括城市发展水平和开发商 的开发运营能力。城市发展的水平是城市综合体开发取得成功的外部因素，主要体现 在城市综合体的开发建设要与城市发展水平相适应，从政策、经济、区位、人口四个 因素进行分析，充分论证。而开发商的开发运营能力是城市综合体开发取得成功的内 因。城市综合体的开发要由有成熟经验的大型商业地产开发商来操盘开发，要有雄厚 的资金实力和成熟的大型商业地产运营经验，以免导致开发失败。 另外，城市综合体的开发建设不能仅仅考虑经济效益，还要综合考虑城市综合体 的社会效益和环境效益。城市综合体同时要承担更多的城市公共设施的职能，要通过 项目的建设，在完善社会区域功能、提高城市商业档次、改善城市环境，提升城市品 质等方面都发挥积极重要的作用。 通过本文的研究，对影响城市综合体开发的因素形成了一定的成果，由于研究水 平及研究深度的缺陷，报告对一些内容论述还不够深入，有一些问题仍然值得我们进 一步思考和研究。 关键词，城市综合体 可行性研究 城市化 商业地产 投资 开发Abstract In recent years, with the promotion of the urbanization, the HOPSCA was constructed massively in our country, especially after 2009,the Government has strengthened the policy regulation on the housing market, the HOPSCA has become the proposed product model of local government because of the excellent assets besides the sustainable management. On the one hand, with the advantage of gathering popularity and activating commerce, the HOPSCA has not only promoted the regional economic development, but also enhanced the city competitiveness. On the other hand, there are many problems behind the development of the HOPSCA, which will influence and restrict the development of the HOPSCA. The first is the inaccuracy of the position. The second is partially focusing on development while ignoring operation. The third is lacking high quality products. There are a lot of studies on how to position, taking what kind of operation mode on these issues, but there are little systematic analysis. Therefore, the feasible study and analysis on investing and constructing of the HOPSCA is very important. This paper starts from the track of the city development, analyzing the background and the developing history of the HOPSCA, and then studies the influences on the HOPSCA by civilization and why the HOPSCA appear from the city development process and the city development course. Through the contrast and analysis of commercial real estate and HOPSCA, based on previous researches, the author studies on what may influence the HOPSCA development, and discovers the main influencing factors by the counsels from experts, which are testified with the combination of HOPSCA cases. Finally, the author analyses the development of the block 2013-G-85(hereafter referred to as block G85). Through this study, the author considers that the main influencing factors on HOPSCA include the development level of the city and the operation ability of the developers. The development level of the city is the outside factor, which demands the development adaptability of the HOPSCA and the city, referring to four factors such as policy, economy，location，population，which has been verified adequately. Meanwhile, the operation ability of the developers is the inner factor. The HOPSCA’s development needs expert developers and abundant capital capacity, lest the failure of development. In addition, the main concern of the HOPSCA’s development should not only be theeconomic benefit, but also the social benefit and environmental benefit. The HOPSCA should bear more function of urban public facilities, take a active role in perfecting social area function, commerce level, environment and quality of the city. This paper has achieved certain results of the influencing factors on HOPSCA’s development, as well as some problems remaining because of the author’s limited ability. Therefore, more research is needed. Key words: HOPSCA the feasible study urbanization commercial property Investment development目 录 1 绪论 ................................................................................................................................................... - 1 - 1.1 选题的背景、目的及意义..................................................................................................... - 1 - 1.1.1 选题背景...................................................................................................................... - 1 - 1.1.2 选题目的及意义.......................................................................................................... - 1 - 1.2 国内外相关研究动态与发展前沿......................................................................................... - 2 - 1.2.1 关于可行性研究方面的研究...................................................................................... - 2 - 1.2.2 关于城市综合体方面的研究...................................................................................... - 2 - 1.3 报告基本内容及研究方法..................................................................................................... - 4 - 1.3.1 报告基本内容.............................................................................................................. - 4 - 1.3.2 研究方法...................................................................................................................... - 5 - 1.3.3 技术路线...................................................................................................................... - 5 - 2 城市综合体相关论述........................................................................................................................ - 7 - 2.1 城市综合体简述..................................................................................................................... - 7 - 2.1.1 城市综合体的特点...................................................................................................... - 7 - 2.1.2 城市综合体的功能分析.............................................................................................. - 8 - 2.1.3 城市综合体开发的主要模式...................................................................................... - 8 - 2.2 城市综合体的发展历程....................................................................................................... - 10 - 2.2.1 城市化与城市综合体................................................................................................ - 10 - 2.2.2 国外城市综合体的发展历程.................................................................................... - 11 - 2.2.3 国内城市综合体的发展历程.................................................................................... - 12 - 2.2.4 城市综合体产生的根本原因.................................................................................... - 13 - 2.3 商业地产与城市综合体....................................................................................................... - 13 - 2.3.1 商业地产简述............................................................................................................ - 13 - 2.3.2 城市综合体与一般商业地产比较............................................................................ - 14 - 2.4 本章小结 .............................................................................................................................. - 15 - 3 影响城市综合体开发的要素分析.................................................................................................. - 16 - 3.1 影响城市综合体开发的因素整理分析............................................................................... - 16 - 3.1.1 影响因素的寻找........................................................................................................ - 16 - 3.1.2 影响因素的整理分析................................................................................................ - 19 - 3.2 影响城市综合体开发因素的确立....................................................................................... - 21 - 3.2.1 影响城市综合体开发的外部因素............................................................................ - 22 - 3.2.2 影响城市综合体开发的内部因素............................................................................ - 23 - 3.3 城市综合体案例分析........................................................................................................... - 25 - 3.3.1 成功案例.................................................................................................................... - 25 - 3.3.2 失败案例.................................................................................................................... - 38 - 3.3.3 案例分析启示............................................................................................................ - 25 - 3.4 本章小结 .............................................................................................................................. - 41 - 4 实例研究 ......................................................................................................................................... - 42 -4.1 影响因素分析....................................................................................................................... - 42 - 4.1.1 项目外部因素分析.................................................................................................... - 42 - 4.1.2 项目内部因素分析.................................................................................................... - 46 - 4.2 财务评价与预测................................................................................................................... - 54 - 4.2.1 财务效益与费用估算................................................................................................ - 54 - 4.2.2 盈利能力分析............................................................................................................ - 56 - 4.2.3 财务生存能力分析.................................................................................................... - 56 - 4.2.4 借款偿还能力分析.................................................................................................... - 56 - 4.2.5 不确定性分析............................................................................................................ - 56 - 4.3 社会评价 .............................................................................................................................. - 57 - 4.3.1 正面影响.................................................................................................................... - 57 - 4.3.2 负面影响.................................................................................................................... - 58 - 4.4 项目主要结论....................................................................................................................... - 58 - 4.5 本章小结 .............................................................................................................................. - 59 - 5 实例研究启示 ................................................................................................................................. - 60 - 6 结论与展望 ..................................................................................................................................... - 61 - 6.1 主要结论 .............................................................................................................................. - 61 - 6.2 展望 ...................................................................................................................................... - 61 -