城市综合体是城市中最节约城市土地及资源的建筑，在我国城市的发展过程中企业和政府 都非常重视城市综合体开发项目，这也是我国城市化进程不断加快的过程中必须经过历程，怎 样结合城市目前的土地以及城市中一些陈旧的建筑，将其结合起来进行优化设计，不断优化城 市的结构，美化城市环境，提高城市活力，成为我国城市综合体开发项目关注的热点。本文以 南京 JMGC 城市综合体项目开发为例，对其开发的技术指标、市场、财务等投资可行性进行研 究。 本文第一章对城市综合体项目投资可行性研究等相关国内外理论研究的情况进行阐述。第 二章介绍了城市综合体概念、特征以及开发作用和功能定位，再进一步阐述城市综合体理论基 础，并详细说明本文要用到的分析方法。第三章对南京 JMGC 城市综合体项目内外部环境进行 了分析，运用 PEST 分析方法从政治环境、经济环境、社会文化环境、技术环境出发对项目投 资的外部环境进行了分析，运用 SWOT 分析方法，分析了本项目的优势、劣势、机遇和威胁； 第四章通过对南京市、江北新区及 JMGC 城市综合体项目周边住宅、酒店、办公、商业、公寓 等各业态的市场情况进行环比同比分析，推导出本项目在可进行的开发计划下的非现房精装销 售及自持运营模式，并进而推导出各产品可售可租的参考价格；再根据前述销售价格假设测算 出项目的总销售收入、开发成本及净利润率、内部报酬率等各类财务指标，并对财务指标的敏 感性进行分析，从而验证前述运营模式及销售价格的市场接受度与可靠性，进而支撑本项目实 施的可行性的研究；本章节最后对本综合体项目运营的风险进行了分析并提出了防范措施及建 议。在报告的结尾对本文研究的重点与不足进行总结，并对未来综合体的研究提出展望。 关键词：城市综合体，PEST 分析，SWOT 分析，可行性分析，敏感性分析南京 JMGC 城市综合体项目投资可行性研究 II Abstract Urban complex is the most save urban land and resources of city construction, the development of the city in our country enterprise and the government attaches great importance to the city in the process of complex development project, this is also the process of accelerating the process of our urbanization must pass a course, how to combine city the land, and some of the old buildings in a city, combine its optimized design, constantly optimize the structure of the city and beautify the urban environment, improve the urban vitality, become the hot spot in the urban complex development projects in China. This paper takes the development of Nanjing JMGC urban complex project as an example to study the technical indicators, market, financial and other investment feasibility of its development. The first chapter of this paper elaborates on the feasibility study of urban complex project investment and other relevant domestic and foreign theoretical studies. The second chapter introduces the concept, characteristics, development function and functional positioning of urban complex, further elaborates the theoretical basis of urban complex, and elaborates the analysis method to be used in this paper. Chapter three analyzes the internal and external environment of Nanjing JMGC urban complex project, using PEST analysis method to analyze the external environment of project investment from the perspective of political environment, economic environment, social and cultural environment and technological environment, and using SWOT analysis method to analyze the advantages, disadvantages, opportunities and threats of this project. The fourth chapter of urban complex, Jiangbei district, Nanjing city and JMGC project surrounding residential, hotel, office, commercial, apartment and so on various forms of sequential analysis compared to the market situation, deduce the development plan of this project can be carried out under the hardcover sales of existing homes and self- sustaining operation mode, and then deduced the reference price of each product available for rent. Again according to the sales price hypothesis testing project total sales revenue, cost of development and net profit margin, internal rate of return and other kinds of financial indicators, and analyzes the sensitivity of the financial indicators, to verify the operation mode and market acceptance and reliability of the sales price, to support the project implementation feasibility study; Finally, this chapter analyzes the operation risk of the complex project and puts forward preventive measures and Suggestions. At the end of the paper, the focus and shortcomings of this study are summarized, and the future of complex research prospects. Keywords: urban complex, PEST analysis, SWOT analysis, feasibility analysis, Sensitivity analysis南京航空航天大学硕士学位报告 III 目录 第一章 绪论 ..........................................................................................................................................1 1.1 选题的背景及意义..................................................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景.......................................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义........................................................................................................................2 1.2 国内外研究现状......................................................................................................................2 1.2.1 关于项目投资可行性研究............................................................................................2 1.2.2 关于城市综合体项目研究............................................................................................4 1.3 研究目的及研究内容..............................................................................................................6 1.3.1 研究目的........................................................................................................................6 1.3.2 研究内容........................................................................................................................6 1.4 研究方法及技术路线..............................................................................................................7 1.4.1 研究方法........................................................................................................................7 1.4.2 课题研究的技术路线....................................................................................................7 第二章 项目投资可行性研究的相关理论基础...................................................................................9 2.1 相关概念的界定......................................................................................................................9 2.1.1 城市综合体的概念........................................................................................................9 2.1.2 城市综合体的主要特征................................................................................................9 2.1.3 城市综合体开发的作用及功能定位..........................................................................10 2.2 城市综合体的理论基础........................................................................................................10 2.3 SWOT 分析方法....................................................................................................................12 2.4 PEST 分析方法......................................................................................................................13 2.5 本章小结 ...............................................................................................................................14 第三章 南京 JMGC 城市综合体项目投资现状及环境分析............................................................16 3.1 项目投资基本情况................................................................................................................16 3.1.1 项目地块基本信息......................................................................................................16 3.1.2 项目投资基本条件.....................................................................................................16 3.2 项目投资的外部环境分析（PEST） ..................................................................................16 3.2.1 政治环境......................................................................................................................16 3.2.2 经济环境......................................................................................................................18南京 JMGC 城市综合体项目投资可行性研究 IV 3.2.3 社会文化环境..............................................................................................................19 3.2.4 技术环境.....................................................................................................................20 3.3 项目投资的内部环境分析（SWOT） ................................................................................21 3.3.1 优势分析(strength).....................................................................................................21 3.3.2 劣势(weakness)...........................................................................................................21 3.3.3 机会(opportunity).......................................................................................................21 3.3.4 威胁(threats)................................................................................................................21 3.4 本章小结 ...............................................................................................................................22 第四章 南京 JMGC 城市综合体项目投资可行性研究分析..........................................................23 4.1 项目投资的的技术指标分析................................................................................................23 4.1.1 综合体项目技术环境..................................................................................................23 4.1.2 本项目技术经济指标..................................................................................................24 4.2 项目投资的市场可行性分析................................................................................................25 4.2.1 住宅市场可行性分析..................................................................................................25 4.2.2 商业市场可行性分析..................................................................................................28 4.2.3 办公市场可行性分析..................................................................................................29 4.2.4 酒店市场可行性分析..................................................................................................36 4.2.5 酒店式公寓可行性分析..............................................................................................37 4.2.6 产品定位及销售预测..................................................................................................42 4.3 项目投资的财务可行性分析................................................................................................42 4.3.1 项目开发计划..............................................................................................................43 4.3.2 项目成本计划..............................................................................................................44 4.3.3 项目资金来源..............................................................................................................45 4.3.4 项目利润测算..............................................................................................................47 4.3.5 项目财务效益分析......................................................................................................48 4.3.6 项目财务敏感性分析..................................................................................................49 4.4 项目风险分析.........................................................................................................................49 4.4.1 政策风险分析及防范..................................................................................................49 4.4.2 市场竞争风险及防范..................................................................................................50 4.4.3 经营风险分析及防范..................................................................................................50 4.4.4 资金筹措和使用风险分析及防范..............................................................................50 4.5 本章小结 ................................................................................................................................51南京航空航天大学硕士学位报告 V 第五章 结论与展望 ............................................................................................................................52 5.1 主要结论 ................................................................................................................................52 5.2 展望 ........................................................................................................................................52