目前，中国房地产行业处于持续高速发展时期，而且在可以预见的相当长一 段时间里，中国房地产都将是我国国民经济的重要支柱产业之一。房地产开发过 程从本质来讲，是一种资金按既定计划进行投入并增值后回收的过程。但由于中 国经济管理方面长期存在的经验主义作风，不做市场调查，盲目上马，边设计， 边施工等随意性管理做法严重，大量房屋闲置和资金积压现象时有发生。由于房 地产开发领域存在诸多自身特点，其开发程序、建设周期、财务制度、资金回收 等方面有别于其他行业，使一般的投资项目评价方法不能完全适用于房地产开发 项目，这也客观造成了有计划，有目的的设计、论证房地产开发项目中的诸多困 难。因此，如何引导房地产健康发展，降低开发盲目性，在理论界和实践应用两 个层面寻找房地产开发论证的有效方法，已经成为一个比较热门的课题。 本文立足 2008 年全球经济海啸和四川“5.12”特大地震的背景，通过对成都 市配套建设“两场一站一所”项目（即农贸市场、停车场、垃圾中转站、公共厕 所项目）中一个典型项目，即农贸市场建设同时，附属建设商品房项目的开发建 设可行性研究工作进行实例分析，力图通过分析具体项目，探讨房地产开发过程 中如何运用系统科学的可行性论证方法，解决房地产开发论证中的程序、内容及 论证结论的问题，找到破解复杂局面下，进行房地产开发可行性分析和投资决策 的思路和方法。本人由于工作原因有幸参与该项目前期可行性论证工作，在项目 所在区域进行了较长时间的调查并获得了一定的相关资料，在该项目规划设计、 方案评审及项目投资估算等方面做了一定工作，并总结过程资料，撰写了可行性 研究报告。文章首先对该项目建设背景、开发单位基本情况及项目前期进展情况 进行了简要的介绍；然后通过数据和统计方法的分析对项目所处区域环境、政策 环境、经济环境等方面进行分析和评价；接着运用 MBA 课程学到的投资及财务管 理方面知识，对项目定位、工程实施方案等进行策划，对项目总投资、销售价格、 融资方案等进行预测，并对项目运作财务风险及不确定性进行分析评价，最后对 文章进行总结，得出结论。 关键词：房地产开发/综合项目/可行性分析ABSTRACT At present, the real estate market in China keeps booming, and it is expected as one of important pillars of the national economy in the long-run. The development of real estate in nature is a financial process in which the capital is invested and returned with added value. Because of empiricism, many projects, however, are lack of pre-study and effective management, for instance, some never go through market research or feasibility study. As a result, a great lot of constructions are unused and wasted; the capital is overstocked as well. Since the real estate has its own character; the process, period, financial system and capital return differ from other industries’. That is why the method for analyzing normal practice is not completely suitable for the real estate; and this leads to the difficulty in property development. Therefore, how to guide and ensure a healthy real estate market in both theory and practice becomes a hot topic. Based on the background of 2008 global financial tsunami and Sichuan 5.12 earthquakes, the author of this paper analyzes the “Agricultural Fair Construction Project” in the “Chengdu Supporting Facilities Construction -- agricultural fair, car park, garbage transit depot, public toilet” as an example of feasibility study. It is intended to find an effective and efficient method of analysis and decision-making in the real estate development. Through the involvement of project planning, proposal evaluation and investment estimate, the author gets relevant information and finishes the study of feasibility. At the beginning of this paper, he gives a brief introduction of the project background; and analyzes and evaluates the environment of the project by statistics afterwards. Then, he applies the investment and financial management from MBA courses for project positioning as well as implementation. The conclusion comes out at the end. Keywords: real estate development/ integrated project/ study of feasibility目 录 第一章 绪 论.............................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景 ..............................................................................................................1 1.2 报告结构及相关理论、方法、信息来源 ..........................................................3 第二章 建设背景与环境分析...................................................................................5 2.1 建设背景 ..............................................................................................................5 2.2 环境分析 ..............................................................................................................9 第三章 项目规划及实施方案.................................................................................23 3.1 项目定位 ............................................................................................................23 3.2 工程实施方案 ....................................................................................................25 第四章 财务分析.....................................................................................................31 4.1 项目建设规模 ....................................................................................................31 4.2 项目总投资估算 ................................................................................................31 4.3 价格预测 ............................................................................................................33 4.4 融资方案 ............................................................................................................46 4.5 财务盈利能力分析 ............................................................................................47 4.6 敏感性分析 ........................................................................................................48 4.7 项目财务评价结论 ............................................................................................48 第五章 可行性研究结论.........................................................................................49 致 谢.......................................................................................................................50