截至 2015 年，我国老人照料及服务的市场规模已经突破 4500 亿元，养老 服务为社会提供的就业机会高达 500 万个。我国民政部于 2011 年年底制定了有 关建设养老服务体系的通知，《通知》中提到：为解决老龄化带来的一系列问 题，必须构建符合人口老龄化要求，与经济发展相适应的养老服务体系，实现 老有所养的目标，将社会养老服务作为优先发展的产业，在建设养老服务体系 时，可将家庭养老、机构养老和社区养老结合在一起。当前，我国共有 40000 个养老机构，拥有 300 多万张养老床位，由于养老机构和床位过少，导致大部 分老年人的养老需求得不到满足。近年来，我国政府以及社会各界对养老服务 事业投入了较多的关注，各地政府都将养老服务体系的建设作为一项重要工作。 由于这项建设工作开始时间晚，我国在建设养老服务体系时遇到的困难和问题 较多，一些地区没有做好统筹规划工作，还有一些地区建立的养老服务体系缺 少连贯性和规范性；养老机构和社区缺少养老床位，无法满足老年人的需求； 许多机构的设施不完善，无法为老年人提供精神安慰、康复、护理等多种服务； 一些地区的养老机构分布缺少合理性，城市养老机构多，乡镇养老机构过少； 在发展养老服务事业时，政府投入过少，民间资本未得到有效利用；养老服务 团队缺少专业化水平，导致该产业发展缓慢。 本文以郑州 XXX 养老服务中心建设项目为研究对象，首先分析了项目概况 及项目建设背景及必要性，然后从市场需求和市场供给两个方面分析了当前国 内老年产业市场，然后阐述了项目选址及建设条件，并提出了工程方案设计， 并分析了节能、环境保护、劳动安全与防护、工程建设管理、项目实施进度、 投资估算与资金筹措、经济效益分析、社会评价及项目风险分析等多个方面来 对本次项目建设的可行性进行研究。 关键词：养老；养老机构；养老服务；可行性研究II Abstract The market of the care and service for the elderly has reached 450 billion yuan until 2015. The old-age services have provided more than 5000 thousand jobs for the society.MCA established an announcement about building up the service system for the aged. In this announcement, it mentioned that in order to handle with a series of problems brought about by an aging population, we must set up the service system which conforms to the requirement of the aging population as well as adapts to the economic development so as to guarantee the aged will be looked after properly. Give priority to the industry of old-age service system. While building the service system for the aged, we can combine family endowment with organization retirement and community age care. At present, there are over 40 thousand old-age care institutions, owning more than 3000 thousand pension beds. It is hard to meet the pension demand of most aged people because of the far less old-age care institutions and pension beds. In recently years, the government and society have paid much attention to the career of the old-age service and local governments regard the establishment of the system of old-age service as an important part of their jobs. Because this project starts late, we have encountered many troubles and questions in building up this system. Some areas do not make a good job planning while others lack of coherence and normalization in building up the old-care system; there are not enough pension beds in the old-age care institutions and communities to satisfy the demand of the elderly; many facilities are imperfect, unable to provide spiritual comfort, rehabilitation, care and other services for the elderly.In some areas, the distribution of pension institutions is lack of rationality: the urban pension institutions are more, whereas the rural pension institutions are too few. In the development of pension services, the government put too little and private capital has not been effectively utilized;Pension service teams lack of professional level, leading to the slow development of the industry. This thesis takes the construction project of Zhengzhou XXX old-age service center as the research object. This paper first analyzes the general situation, the background and necessity for the project construction. Then, it makes an analysis ofIII the current domestic elderly industry market from the aspects of market demand and market supply. At last, it elaborates site election and construction conditions of the project and proposes design for it. It analyzes the feasibility of the project construction from energy saving, environmental protection, labor safety and protection, project construction management, project implementation progress, investment estimation and fund raising, economic benefit analysis, social evaluation and project risk. Key words：Provide for the aged；Pension agency；Pension services；A feasibility studyIV 目录 第一章项目概况 ........1 第一节项目简介.......1 第二节项目研究依据...3 第三节研究背景和研究思路......4 第四节行业准入分析...5 第五节项目建设的必要性........5 第二章市场分析 ........8 第一节市场需求.......8 第二节郑州养老市场供给状况...10 第三节市场定位和市场预测.....11 一市场定位........11 二市场预测........11 第四节项目 SWOT 分析.12 一优势分析........12 二劣势分析........12 三机遇分析........12 四威胁分析........13 第三章项目建设方案 ...14 第一节项目选址和建设条件.....14 一项目选址........14 二建设条件........14 三施工条件........16 第二节项目方案设计..17 一建筑设计........17 二结构设计........19 第三节项目节能设计..20 一建筑节能........20 二节能措施和效果分析.......22V 第四节建材供应及市政条件.....24 第四章项目建设管理 ...26 第一节项目管理......26 第二节项目招投标....27 第三节环境保护......28 第四节劳动安全与防护30 第五节安全生产管理..34 第六节项目实施进度..37 第五章财务分析 .......39 第一节投资估算与资金筹措.....39 一编制依据........39 二投资估算........39 第二节经济效益分析..44 一编制依据、基础数据与设定条件......44 二营业收入、税金测算.......44 三总成本费用测算..44 四利润测算........46 五盈利能力分析....46 六经济效益综合评价46 第六章项目风险分析和社会评价 ..47 第一节风险分析概述..47 第二节项目主要风险因素识别和风险程度分析.......47 第三节防范和降低风险的对策...48 第四节社会效益......49 第五节社会影响分析..49 第六节社会稳定风险分析.......50 第七章结论与建议 .....52 第一节结论.52 第二节建议.53VI