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日期:2022年 6月 6日
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摘
要
摘
要
近年来基础设施建设增速放缓,中央及各部委采取一系列措施,成为稳增长的重要
举措并取得一定成效,但发展基础设施建设的突出问题依然存在。第一,地方政府融资
渠道不足,地方债压力大;第二,基础设施建设的股权资金缺乏;第三,融资工具与项
目收益期限错配。
基础设施公募 REITs在这种背景下应运而生,从短期看,应对疫情影响和经济下行
压力,盘活存量资产,提高资产利用率,支持经济重启;从长期看 REITs将是解决中国
不动产投融资体制诸多结构性问题的破题之作。公募 REITs发行成功且持续运营的关键
依赖于底层资产的质量,优质底层资产的筛选对 REITs发行有着基础性作用,同时筛选
优质底层资产也是实操中的难点,基于此对如何选择优质底层资产进行研究。
首先,对公募 REITs相关概念、理论进行梳理,明晰底层资产在公募 REITs整体框
架中的重要性。通过对国内外文献及研究报告进行研读,识别底层资产选择的影响因素,
并将我国已发行的 11只公募 REITs作为研究案例进一步识别影响因素,总共识别出18
项影响因素,利用专家意见确定影响因素选取是合理的。
其次,运用 DEMATEL-ISM模型对影响因素进行分析,在DEMATEL分析的基础
上得出中心度、原因因素及结果因素。在此基础上进行 ISM分析,将影响因素划分为7
个层次,划分为三个区级为表层直接因素、中层间接因素及深层根源因素,再运用
MICMAC进行驱动力与依赖性的分析,分为依赖型因素、自发型因素、独立型因素。进
一步梳理形成管理主体根源驱动影响资产实体、资产实体中介传递影响资产财务质量、
财务质量直观反映底层资产质量的传递路径,为选择优质底层资产提供理论借鉴。
其中,资产派息率、资本化率、现金流状况、盈利性、使用者付费的市场化程度、
周转性与财务质量相关,为影响底层资产的表层因素,同时也是结果因素及依赖型因素。
中层因素及深层因素与原因因素一致,MICMAC将中层因素进一步分解,驱动力较弱
的划分为自发型因素,包括资产规模、区域位置、资产收入来源、项目合法合规性、所
处行业;驱动力较强的为独立型因素,包括资产类型、资产性质、特许经营期、已运营
年限,中层因素与资产实体密切相关。深层因素包括原始权益人的资质及背景、项目公
司的资质及管理能力、资产组合的多元化均与管理主体相关,深层因素的驱动力更强属
于独立型因素。
最后,对基础设施公募 REITs底层资产选择提供建议,认为专项计划管理人层面应
注重筛选优质底层资产,公司层面应注重提升底层资产质量,政府层面应优化底层资产
相关制度机制,投资者层面理性看待底层资产价值,并配套具体细化措施,为公募 REITs
选择优质底层资产提供借鉴,助力公募 REITs平稳持续发展。
关键词:基础设施公募 REITs;底层资产;DEMATEL-ISM模型
II
Abstract
Abstract
In recent years, the growth rate of infrastructure construction has slowed down. The central
government and various ministries and commissions have taken a series of measures, which
have become important measures tostabilize growth and have achieved certain results.
However, outstanding problems in the development of infrastructure construction still exist.
First, there are insufficient financing channels for local governments, and local debts are under
great pressure; second, there is a lack of equity funds for infrastructure construction; third, there
is a mismatch between financing tools and project revenue deadlines.
Infrastructure public offering REITs came into being in this context. In the short term, to
deal with the impact of the epidemic and the downward pressure on the economy, revitalize
existing assets, improve asset utilization, and support the restart of the economy; in the long
run, REITs will be the solution to China's real estate investment and financing system. A
solution to many structural problems. The key to the successful issuance and continuous
operation of publicly offered REITs depends on the quality of the underlying assets. The
selection of high-quality underlying assets plays a fundamental role in the issuance of REITs.
At the same time, screening high-quality underlying assets is also a difficulty in practice.
Research.
First, the related concepts and theories of public REITs are sorted out, and the importance
of the underlying assets in the overall framework of public REITs is clarified. Through the study
of domestic and foreign literature and research reports, the influencing factors of the underlying
asset selection were identified, and the 11 publicly offered REITs that had been issued in my
country were used as research cases to further identify the influencing factors. A total of 19
influencing factors were identified, and expert opinions were used to determine the impact. The
selection of factors is reasonable.
Secondly, using DEMATEL-ISM model to analyze the influencing factors, on the basis of
DEMATEL analysis, the centrality, causal factors and result factors are obtained. On this basis,
ISM analysis is carried out, and the influencing factors are divided into 7 levels, and divided
into three levels: surface direct factors, intermediate indirect factors and deep root factors, and
then useMICMAC toanalyze thedriving forceand dependence.Dependent factors,
spontaneous factors, independent factors. Further sort out and form the transmission path of the
management subject's root-driven influence on the asset entity, the asset entity's intermediary
transmission affecting the asset's financial quality, and the financial quality intuitively reflecting
the underlying asset quality, providing theoretical reference for the selection of high-quality
underlying assets.
Among them, the asset dividend rate, capitalization rate, cash flow status, profitability,
marketization of user fees, and turnover are related to financial quality. The middle-level factors
and deep-level factors are consistent with the causal factors. MICMAC further decomposes the
middle-level factors, and divides the weaker driving forces into spontaneous factors, including
asset size, regional location, asset income source, project legal compliance, and industry;
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