上海师范大学硕士学位论文
论文题目：基于FFO折现法研究底层资产为产业园的REITs定价——以“华安张
江光大园REITs”为例
论文类型:案例分析
专业方向：投资管理
摘要
我国的经济开发区、产业园等不动产为我国经济提供了强大的助力，但因为
其资产投入大回收期漫长的属性，成为了流动性低、交易门槛高的资产，持有房
地产的权益人获得收益的同时承受着不易变现的流动性风险，普通投资者也享受
不到这种投资标的带来的稳定的可持续的收益，伴随着 2021年发行的 11只基础
设施公募 REITs在市场上平稳运作，基础设施 REITs成为了普通投资者可以参
与的能大概率跑赢通胀的投资选择，也进一步盘活了低流动性的基础设施资产。
定价是 REITs发行上市的关键环节，直接关系到发行成败：如果发行价格过
低，会使得不动产原始权益人不积极参与 REITs项目，转而采用出租或出售；如
果发行价格过高，则可能出现认购积极性不高，导致发行失败或认购者亏损。产
业园公募 REITs在我国刚刚出现，可供参考的案例不多，现有的 REITs价格评估
主要来自于地产评估机构对于基础资产价格的评估，基础资产到公募基金的过程
还要经过专项资管计划等结构，而且评估的计算省略无法作为普通投资者的参考，
因此文本着重探讨适用于产业园 REITs估值定价的方法。
本文以张江光大园 REITs的估值定价作为研究的内容，通过对产业园 REITs
的估值定价方法的适用性进行比较分析归纳，选择 FFO(营运现金流)折现的方法
计算发行期初的定价。定价过程中首先根据案例的实际情况和 REITs产品结构设
计 FFO折现法的模型，并对 FFO折现法中的涉及营业收入、成本费用、税费等
各个项目的变量进行细分并结合历史数据和市场情况模拟分布，在得到各个变量
分布参数的基础上结合蒙特卡洛模拟对张江光大园 REITs每期的 FFO进行预测，
并对影响 FFO的相关变量进行敏感性分析，FFO折现的折现率是按照收入部分
各个项目的预期收益率占比加权得出，将每期的 FFO折现后相加得到预测的定
价结果。将得到的预测定价结果与当地在售同类资产价值，土地单位价值，评估
机构基础资产估值等标的进行综合对比，同时结合其他估值方法的计算结果比较
得出 FFO折现法对产业园 REITs估值具有较好的适用性。
本文的主要结论为：(1)研究比较了对基础资产为产业园的 REITs的定价方
法，通过分析比较并实证了 FFO折现法结合蒙特卡洛模型在张江光大园 REITs

上海师范大学硕士学位论文
的定价过程中具有较好的适用性，此方法得出的定价结果为 147134.13万元，跟
基金发行时网下投资者询价给出的综合价格 149000万元相仿。(2)通过敏感性分
析，发现对产业园 REITs影响最大的因素为物业租赁的空置率和因租约调整产生
的装修免租期率，其次为租金增长率。(3)通过账面资产溢价、单位土地价格、相
对估值乘数等方法对估值结果进行了评价，认为定价结果在合适的区间。
关键词：公募产业园 REITs；FFO折现法；蒙特卡洛模拟

上海师范大学硕士学位论文
Abstract
China's economic development zones, industrial parks and other real estate have
provided a strong boost to China's economy. However, due to its large asset investment
and long payback period, it has become an asset with low liquidity and high transaction
threshold. While the equity holders of real estate obtain income, they bear the liquidity
risk that is not easy to change, and ordinary investors can not enjoy the stable and
sustainable income brought by this investment object, With the stable operation of 11
public infrastructure REITs issued in 2021 in the market, infrastructure REITs has
become an investment choice that ordinary investors can participate in, which can
probably outperform inflation, and further revitalize the infrastructure assets with low
liquidity. In the process of the establishment of REITs, the issue pricing is an important
link, and the appropriate pricing is first related to the success of the issue of REITs,
Secondly, if the issue price is too low, the original equity holders of the real estate will
not actively participate in the REITs project and will instead rent or sell. If the issue
price is too high, the interests of all parties involved in the REITs will be unevenly
distributed and the subscription enthusiasm will not be high, resulting in losses for the
participants who failed to issue. Therefore, the valuation and pricing of REITs in
industrial parks plays an important role in the healthy development of such REITs.
Public REITs in industrial parks have just appeared in China, and there are few cases
for reference. The existing REITs price evaluation mainly comes from the evaluation
of the price of basic assets by real estate evaluation institutions. The process from basic
assets to public funds also goes through special asset management plans and other
structures, and the calculation of the evaluation is omitted, which can not be used as a
reference for ordinary investors. Therefore, the text wants to explore the methods
suitable for the valuation and pricing of REITs in industrial parks.
This paper takes the valuation and pricing of REITs in Zhangjiang Everbright Park
as the research content, analyzes and summarizes the applicability of the valuation and
pricing method of REITs in the industrial park, selects the cash flow discount method
to calculate the pricing at the beginning of the period, and the dividend operating cash
flow that investors can obtain is taken as the cash flow of each period in the continuous
period. The FFO (operating cash flow) here takes into account the income project
。。。以下略