基础设施公募REITs价值评估研究
——以博时招商蛇口产业园REITs为例
研究生：欧林青
导师：伍先福
专业：金融
研究方向：金融市场与投资
年级：2020级
中文摘要
随着中国经济从高速增长向高质量发展转变 ,经济增速有所放缓，在产业转
型、消费升级面临诸多挑战的背景下，提高投资效率，盘活基础设施及商业不动
产领域存量资产、促进形成再投资能力，已成为当前中国宏观经济改革与发展的
重要抓手。长期以来，我国基础设施建设市场蓬勃发展，但是基础设施投融资长
期面临的资本结构不合理、社会资本参与度不大、地方债券违约率高等问题长久
未能得到解决。为丰富基础设施融资渠道、强化基础设施建设，基础设施公募
REITs应时而生。2020年以来，国家发改委与证监会积极推进公募 REITs落地，
在 2021年 6月第一批 9只公募 REITs顺利发行，标志着中国公募 REITs的正式
启航。随着公募 REITs试点项目的持续火热推进，如何合理评估 REITs这类多层
次、多渠道退出的投融资工具的价值，成为了发行人和投资者共同关心的话题。
本文针对公募 REITs的价值评估，首先对国内外文献进行梳理，立足我国基
础设施发展历程，并选取首批基础设施公募 REITs中以产业园区为主营方向的博
时招商蛇口产业园 REITs为案例主体，对其组织架构、交易结构、项目风险等项
目基本情况进行分析介绍，并着重根据其评估机构采用的价值评估方法及运用方
式进行分析，依据其评估方法及运用方式分析出价值评估所存在的四类问题并剖
析出背后的成因。随后，针对博时招商蛇口 REITs价值评估存在的四类问题相应
的提出优化策略。本文优化策略以期权估值理论为基础，将公募 REITs视为可以
双向行权的产品，其两种行权方式为 REITs的现金流量价值与净资产价值，将两
者的较大值作为该金融工具的真实投资价值。根据此理念本文引入期权估值模型
中的 MAX函数为载体，在当中嵌入期权调整利差法、基于同业分析的净资产估
值方法以建立新的优化方法。最后，利用新的优化方法对博时招商蛇口产业园
REITs的现金流量价值与底层资产价值进行分析计算，针对计算结果首先将现金
流量价值与底层资产价值进行分析对比，并依据期权估值理论将现金流量价值与
底层资产价值中的最大值作为该项目的真实投资价值与二级市场价格进行对比
分析，利用对比结果分析出对投资者的行为路径、市场行为产生的影响。
依据本文案例分析及优化模型应用的结果与分析，本文归纳并总结出四个结
论：第一，传统的单一估值方法并不能完全概括公募 REITs的价值。第二，博时
招商蛇口产业园现金流价值与底层资产价值存在较大差异的原因主要是项目产
III

生高额“税盾”现金流与产业园区工业用地属性导致的底层资产低估值。第三，
期权调整利差法适用于公募 REITs的现金流量价值评估。第四，博时招商蛇口产
业园 REITs二级交易市场在一定程度上符合有效市场理论。最后本文根据全文的
分析及得到的结论，分别对政策制定者、REITs基金管理者、投资者提供合理建
议。
关键词：公募 REITs；基础设施；价值评估
IV

Research on investment value evaluation of infrastructure public
offering REITs
——Take the REITs of Boshi Industrial as an example
Graduate student: Ou linqing
supervisor: Wu xianfu
Major: Finance
Research Direction: Financial market and investment
Grade: 2020
Abstract
With the transformation of China's economy from high-speed growth to
high-quality development, the economic growth has slowed down. Under the
background of many challenges faced by industrial transformation and consumption
upgrading, improving investment efficiency, revitalizing the stock assets in the field
of infrastructure and commercial real estate and promoting the formation of
reinvestment capacity have become an important starting point for China's
macroeconomic reform and development. For a long time, China's infrastructure
construction market has developed vigorously, but the problems faced by
infrastructure investment and financing for a long time, such as unreasonable capital
structure, low participation of social capital and high default rate of local bonds, have
not been solved for a long time. In order to enrich infrastructure financing channels
and strengthen infrastructure construction, public REITs should emerge from time to
time. Since 2020, the national development and Reform Commission and the CSRC
have actively promoted the implementation of public offering REITs, and the first
batch of 9 public offering REITs were successfully issued in June 2021, marking the
official departure of China's public offering REITs. With the continuous hot
promotion of the pilot project of public offering REITs, how to reasonably evaluate
the value of such multi-level and multi-channel exit investment and financing tools as
REITs, and how to effectively protect the interests of investors, these problems need
to be solved urgently.
In view of the above problems, this paper combs the literature at home and
abroad, analyzes the development status of domestic infrastructure REITs based on
the development process of China's infrastructure, and points out that the value
evaluation of public offering REITs in China is still in its infancy, and the foreign
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