管理层疫情风险意识会影响企业商业信用决策吗？
摘要
2022年，世界仍然面临着新冠肺炎疫情蔓延以及疫情引发的不确定性等重大问题。
在疫情仍存在不确定性因素的当下，我们亟需思考疫情以及其引发的不确定性对微观企
业的影响及作用机理，以及了解微观企业应对疫情风险的方式和举措，从而更好地帮助
企业从疫情影响中快速恢复过来，筑好防范疫情风险的城墙，最终为后疫情时期经济高
质量发展奠定基础。
商业信用决策是营运资本决策和战略决策的重要组成部分。疫情背景下，企业面临
着较大的经营风险，不同行业、地域以及其他特征的企业受疫情不确定性的影响程度各
不相同，管理层对疫情不确定性的关注以及认识程度也不一致，考虑到这一因素，企业
商业信用决策将如何变动？
本文基于上市公司年报中“经营情况讨论与分析”文本信息，构造管理层疫情风险
意识衡量指标，定义为管理层在文本中表示“疫情不确定性”的频率，以反映在疫情发
展呈现不确定性的背景下，不同企业对疫情不确定性的关注程度以及关于疫情不确定性
对未来经营影响大小的看法，体现了企业层面上的疫情不确定性。
本文得出的主要结论有：第一，企业所在省份境外输入病例越多，所在行业受疫情
冲击较强，企业属于国有企业，则企业管理层在年报经营情况讨论与分析文本中越有可
能提及疫情不确定性。第二，管理层疫情风险意识越强，越有可能减少企业对外提供的
商业信用。第三，管理层疫情风险意识对商业信用供给的负面效应在外部融资能力较弱、
内部财务风险较高、银行借款较多的企业当中更为明显。在一些疫情利好的行业，如医
疗服务、中药，相比于其他行业，这种负面效应相对减轻。第四，经济后果检验的结果
表明疫情不确定性出现后，企业减少对客户提供的商业信用，可能使得客户流向其他企
业，从而使得企业市场价值降低。
在内生性问题上，本文以“企业所在城市每万人定点医院数量”作为工具变量，采
用工具变量两阶段最小二乘法进行回归，并且采取了更换商业信用供给衡量指标、更换
管理层疫情风险意识衡量指标等一系列方法，经过一系列实证研究，表明了结果的稳健
性。
本文的理论意义和现实意义：在理论层面，本文基于上市企业年度报告中的“经营
情况讨论与分析”使用文本分析方法构建管理层疫情风险意识指标，该指标在一定程度
上体现了企业面临疫情不确定性时的不同反应，从而为日后研究新冠肺炎疫情对企业造
成的影响时提供了可供参考的指标。以往研究商业信用的文献，相对缺乏从重大公共卫
生安全事件的角度研究，本文借助新冠肺炎疫情事件，从疫情不确定性的角度研究商业
信用受到的影响，丰富了商业信用的研究视角。在现实层面，上市公司中商业信用占营
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摘要
业收入的比例平均为 35%，表明上市公司对外提供的商业信用占据一定规模，是企业的
一项重要财务决策，因此，从疫情不确定性的角度对企业商业信用供给的影响具有重要
意义。企业的商业信用不仅体现为正常经营，许多研究都指出企业会通过商业信用二次
配置的形式向上下游中小企业提供资金支持。因此，从疫情不确定性的视角研究商业信
用供给，有助于后疫情时期更好理解中小企业的资金链、供应链等相关问题，支持中小
企业防范化解疫情风险。
关键词：新冠肺炎疫情；疫情不确定性；商业信用供给；文本分析
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管理层疫情风险意识会影响企业商业信用决策吗？
Abstract
In 2022, the world still faces major problems such as the spread of the COVID-19
epidemic and the uncertainty caused by the spread. There is still the uncertainty factors at
present, we need to think about the outbreak and the uncertainty on micro enterprise influence
and mechanism, and understand the measures that micro enterprise deal with the risk, so as to
better help enterprises quickly recover from the outbreak, against epidemic risk, finally for the
high quality economic development.
Business credit decision is an important part of the company's working capital decision
and the company's strategic decision. In most countries, accounts receivable account for a
large proportion of the total assets. In the context of the uncertainty of the epidemic,
enterprises are facing greater business risks. Are enterprises of different industries, regions
and other properties affected to the same extent by the uncertainty of the epidemic? Is the
management's concern and awareness about the uncertainty of the epidemic consistent? Given
the uncertainty of the epidemic, how will corporate business credit decisions change?
Based on the text information of "management analysis and discussion" in the annual
report of listed companies, this thesis constructs the management epidemic risk awareness
measurement index to reflect the importance of different enterprises to the uncertainty of the
epidemic under the uncertainty of the development of the epidemic. The main conclusions
drawn in this article are as follows: First, the more imported cases from the province where
the enterprise is located, the industry is strongly affected by the epidemic, and the enterprise
belongs to a state-owned enterprise, then the enterprise management is likely to mention the
uncertainty of the epidemic in the annual report. Second, the stronger the management risk
awareness of the epidemic, the more likely it is to reduce the business credit provided by
enterprises. Third, the negative effect of the management's epidemic risk awareness on the
commercial credit supply is more obvious among the enterprises with weak external financing
ability and high internal financial risk. Fourth, in some industries with the epidemic, such as
medical services and Chinese medicine, this negative effect is relatively reduced compared
with other industries.
On the issue of endogenous, this thesis to "enterprise city number of 10,000 people
designated hospitals" as a tool variable, using tool variable two stage least squares regression,
and took the commercial credit supply measures, change management epidemic risk
awareness measures and a series of methods, after a series of empirical research, shows the
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