国际原油期货价格波动对中国与东南亚国家贸易影响的实证分析
摘要
在世界原油价格波动的几十年历史长河中，曾经先后间隔几年发生了两次大型原
油危机，给世界经济造成了不可弥补的严重危害。前一次原油危机在 1973年全面爆
发，当时的原油输出国组织为了对抗以色列国家，以及支援以色列国家的其他成员国，
颁布全面禁运原油的规定，导致原油价格上涨，这给过度依赖中东原油的发达国家带
来了巨大的经济打击，也导致由美国主导的西方发达国家经济不景气；后一次原油危
机在 1979年全面爆发，当时的世界主要产油大国伊朗的政治文化局面动荡不定，原
油产量明显减少，并引起了连锁反应，又一次给依靠原油资源的西方工业大国带来了
经济大衰退的困境。二十一世纪，由于网络的发展、交通通讯成本的进一步下降，原
油价格的波动不单单影响着某个国家，也通过经济全球化对国家之间的经济产生不小
的影响，进一步推动着世界国家之间贸易的向前发展。
论文首先从原油和贸易的基本概念出发，深入剖析国际原油期货价格波动对一国
进出口贸易的作用机理，并结合中国与东南亚国家的国情，阐述双方贸易规模、贸易
地位和贸易结构，从多个角度分析国际原油期货价格波动对中国与东南亚国家贸易带
来的影响，以及对中国与东南亚国家贸易结构的具体影响。本文采用建立时间序列模
型，以 2015年至 2020年的国际原油期货价格波动和中国与东南亚国家贸易的月度数
据为样本，采用 VAR方程，进行了脉冲函数和方差分解分析，以实证方法分析了国
际原油期货价格波动对中国与东南亚国家贸易带来的影响，结果显示国际原油期货价
格波动对中国与东南亚国家贸易的影响程度较大，并且在此基础上，使用面板数据模
型，在 SITC二位数分类层次水平基础下，深入研究了国际原油期货价格波动对中国
与东南亚国家 22大类贸易产品的影响，结果显示，国际原油期货价格波动对非能源
密集型产业，也就是劳动密集型和资本密集型产业存在正向影响，而对能源密集型产
业存在负向影响。根据本文的结论，企业要紧跟着国际原油期货价格波动的变动走势，
及时做好预警工作，并主动寻找克服其对中国和东南亚国家贸易所带来冲击的有效渠
道及其相应对策举措。
关键字：国际原油期货价格；东南亚国家；VAR模型；面板数据模型
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河北地质大学硕士学位论文
ABSTRACT
In the decades-long history of fluctuations in world oil prices，there have been two lar
ge oil crises in successive years，which have caused irreparable serious harm to the world e
conomy. The previous oil crisis，which erupted in 1973，led to a general embargo on oil pri
ces by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries against the State of Israel and
other members of the State of Israel，which dealt a huge economic blow to developed coun
tries that relied too heavily on Middle Eastern oil and led to a depression in the developed c
ountries of the West，led to a full-blown oil crisis in 1979，when the political and cultural s
ituation in Iran，the world's leading oil producer，was volatile. Crude oil production has fal
len significantly，causing a ripple effect，once again creating a great recession for western i
ndustrial powers that depend on oil resources. In the twenty-first century，due to the develo
pment of the network and the further decline of transportation and communication costs，th
e fluctuation of oil prices not only affects a country，but also affects the economy between
countries through the globalization of the economy，further promoting the development of t
rade among countries in the world.
Starting from the basic concept of oil and trade，this paper analyzes the mechanism of t
he change of international crude oil futures prices on a country's import and export trade，a
nd expounds the trade scale， trade status and trade structure of China and Southeast Asian
countries，analyzes the impact of fluctuations in international crude oil futures prices on Ch
ina's trade with Southeast Asian countries from various angles，and the specific impact on t
he trade structure between China and Southeast Asian countries. Based on the time series m
odel，taking the monthly data of international crude oil futures prices and China's trade wit
h Southeast Asian countries from 2015 to 2020 as a sample，the pulse function and varianc
e decomposition analysis are carried out，and the impact of international crude oil futures p
rice fluctuations on trade and production between China and Southeast Asian countries is a
nalyzed by empirical method. In-depth study of the impact of international crude oil futures
price fluctuations on THEC's double-digit classification level，China and Southeast Asian
countries 22 categories of trade products，the results show that the international crude oil fu
tures price fluctuations on non-energy-intensive industries，that is，labor-intensive and capi
tal-intensive industries have a positive impact，and the energy-intensive industries have a n
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