经济政策不确定性与企业经营效率
摘
要
我国房地产市场的变化、中美贸易战、全球新冠疫情的爆发等一系列事件都表明我
国的经济环境存在着非常大的不确定性。目前，我国处于经济的转型时期，我国势必需
要制定一些经济政策以应对外部环境的变化，而企业面临的外部环境变化是影响企业生
产经营的重要因素之一，已有大量文献表明经济政策不确定性会对企业的经营行为产生
影响，那么它是否会对企业经营效率产生影响？经济政策不确定性对企业经营效率的影
响渠道是什么？基于此，本文展开讨论，本文的创新点在于研究了经济政策不确定性对
企业经营效率的影响，并基于内部控制与融资约束视角进行了中介效应检验。
本文以 2009年至 2020年中国沪深非金融 A股上市公司为样本，利用中国经济政策
不确定性指数，理论分析和实证回归了中国经济政策不确定性对企业经营效率的影响。
文章从风险评估层面以及信息沟通层面分析认为：经济政策不确定性会使得企业的风险
评估能力变弱和信息沟通能力变差，从而使得企业的内部控制水平变低，从而降低企业
的经营效率；文章也从信息不对称理论以及融资约束理论等角度分析认为经济政策不确
定性会加剧企业的融资约束程度从而降低企业的经营效率。接着通过替换核心解释变
量、替换核心被解释变量、样本间检验的方法对结果进行了稳健性检验。
根据回归结果，本文有以下研究发现：第一，经济政策不确定性的增加会降低企业
的经营效率；第二，经济政策不确定性的增加会降低企业的内部控制水平以及加剧企业
的融资约束程度，内部控制与融资约束在经济政策不确定性对企业经营效率的影响中均
具有部分中介效应的传导渠道；第三，经济政策不确定性对于不同规模、不同成长性、
不同研发投入比例、不同内部经营不确定性的企业的经营效率的影响存在差异。
最后根据以上分析和实证分别从政府和企业的角度提出本文的建议：（1）由于经济
政策不确定性对企业经营效率的影响在不同类型企业之间存在差异性，所以政府在制定
经济政策的时候应该注意到频繁的经济政策变动可能对企业生产经营带来的影响，尤其
应重点关注到小规模企业、研发创新能力低的企业等对外在环境波动较为敏感的企业，
加强与中小企业的联系与沟通，从而制定有效的经济政策和相应的协调措施。（2）因为
内部控制与融资约束的传导渠道的存在，所以企业应该努力完善自身内部控制系统，改
善经营过程中抵抗外部风险的能力，完善自身结构，从而提高企业的生产经营状况；政
府应尽力解决中小企业的融资贵、融资难的问题，从而降低企业的生产成本以达到提升
企业经营效率的目的。
关键词：经济政策不确定性；经营效率；内部控制
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Abstract
Abstract
A series of events, such as the changes in China's real estate market, the trade war
between China and the United States, and the global outbreak of COVID-19, all show that
there is great uncertainty in China's economic environment. At present, our country is in the
transition, the period is bound to need some economic policy to deal with the change of the
external environment, and enterprises face external environment change is one of the
important factors affecting enterprise production and operation, there are a lot of literature
shows that economic policy uncertainty will affect the business behavior, the economic policy
uncertainty will affect the enterprise management efficiency? What is the influence channel of
economic policy uncertainty on the operation efficiency of enterprises? Based on this, this
thesis discusses. The innovation of this thesis is to study the impact of economic policy
uncertainty on the operation efficiency of enterprises, and test the intermediary effect based
on the perspective of internal control and financing constraints.
Taking a sample of China's non-financial A-share listed companies in Shanghai and
Shenzhen from 2009 to 2020, using the China economic policy uncertainty index, the
theoretical analysis and demonstration return to the impact of China's economic policy
uncertainty on the operating efficiency of enterprises. From the perspective of risk assessment
and information communication, the economic policy uncertainty weakens the risk
assessment ability, reduces the internal control level, and believes that the economic policy
uncertainty will aggravate the financing constraint and reduce the efficiency of business. Then,
the robustness of the results was tested by replacing the core explanatory variables, replacing
the core explained variables, and testing between the samples.
According to the regression results, the following research found: first, the increase of
economic policy uncertainty will reduce the operating efficiency of enterprises; second, the
increase of economic policy uncertainty will reduce the level of internal control and increase
the influence of economic policy uncertainty on the operating efficiency of different scale,
growth enterprises and internal operating uncertainties. Third, the impact of economic policy
uncertainty on the operating efficiency of enterprises with different sizes, growth enterprises,
different R&D investment proportions and different internal operation uncertainties varies.
Finally, according to the above analysis and demonstration from the perspective of
government and enterprises: (1) due to the impact of economic policy uncertainty on the
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经济政策不确定性与企业经营效率
efficiency between different types of enterprises, so the government should notice the
frequent economic policy changes on enterprise production and operation, especially focus on
small enterprises, research and innovation ability, strengthen the contact and communication
with small and medium-sized enterprises, so as to formulate effective economic policies and
corresponding coordination measures. (2) Because of the existence of the transmission
channels of internal control and financing constraints, enterprises should strive to improve
their own inside
Key Words: Economic policy uncertainty; operating efficiency; internal control
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