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MBA毕业论文_经济政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响研究DOC

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2008 年的全球金融危机增加了企业对经济政策不确定性的预期,这反过来又 对企业投资行为产生了重要影响。为了早日摆脱经济困境,各国政府都主动加大 对实体经济的干预力度,而经济政策调整的频繁性进一步加大了经济政策不确定 性程度。企业投资决策对其经营至关重要,而经济政策又是影响企业投资决策的 重要因素之一。当企业面临经济政策不确定性冲击时,其投资行为会发生相应的 改变,因此研究经济政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响具有较重要的意义。 论文仔细梳理了经济政策不确定性和企业投资的文献,发现学者们大多基于 实物期权或金融摩擦单一视角考察两者之间的关系。论文将这两种视角置于同一 分析框架下,利用 2003 年第二季度到 2017 年第四季度的中国经济政策不确定性 指数和沪深两市主板 A 股上市的制造业公司数据,从投资支出水平和投资效率 两个维度,实证检验了经济政策不确定性对异质性企业投资行为的影响。论文的 主要结论如下:(1)经济政策不确定性对企业投资支出水平有显著的负面影响, 对企业投资效率有显著的正面影响。 (2)实物期权视角和金融摩擦视角有效地 解释了经济政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响,但实物期权视角更适合解释中 国制造业上市公司在经济政策不确定下的投资行为。(3)企业成长机会和外部 需求在一定程度上缓解了经济政策不确定性对企业投资支出的负面影响。 论文的贡献在于:(1)针对现有研究大多基于单一视角考察经济政策不确定 性与企业投资行为关系的局限性,将实物期权视角和金融摩擦视角置于同一框架 下,构建经济政策不确定性影响企业投资支出水平和投资效率的理论框架,并识 别出实物期权视角更适合解释经济政策不确定下中国制造业上市公司的投资行 为变化,是对已有研究的丰富和拓展。(2)鉴于现有文献研究经济政策不确定性 影响企业投资行为时重点关注投资支出水平的局限性,论文从企业投资支出和投 资效率两个维度来考察经济政策不确定性下的投资行为,并且检验了成长机会和 外部需求异质性在其中发挥的调节作用,对于经济政策不确定性冲击下异质性企 业选择合适的投资行为具有一定的指导意义。 关键词:经济政策不确定性;企业投资行为;实物期权;金融摩擦;企业异 质性II Abstract The global financial crisis in 2008 increased corporate expectations of economic policy uncertainty, which in turn had an important impact on corporate investment behavior. In order to get rid of the economic difficulties as soon as possible, governments have taken the initiative to increase their intervention in the real economy, and the frequency of economic policy adjustments has further increased the degree of uncertainty in economic policies. Corporate investment decisions are critical to their operations, and economic policies are one of the important factors that influence corporate investment decisions. When enterprises face the impact of economic policy uncertainty, their investment behavior will change accordingly. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment behavior. This paper carefully combs the literature on economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment, and finds that scholars mostly examine the relationship between the two based on a single perspective of real options or financial friction. This paper puts these two perspectives under the same analytical framework, and uses the China Economic Policy Uncertainty Index from the second quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2017 and the manufacturing company data of the A-share listed on the main board of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets. The two dimensions of expenditure level and investment efficiency empirically test the impact of economic policy uncertainty on heterogeneous corporate investment behavior. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The uncertainty of economic policy has a significant negative impact on the level of corporate investment expenditure, and has a significant positive impact on corporate investment efficiency. (2) The real option perspective and the financial friction perspective effectively explain the impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment behavior, but the real option perspective is more suitable to explain the investment behavior of Chinese manufacturing listed companies under uncertain economic policies. (3) Corporate growth opportunities and external demand have alleviated the negative impact of economic policy uncertainty on corporate investment spending to a certain extent. The contributions of this paper are as follows: (1) Most of the existing researches examine the limitations of the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment behavior based on a single perspective, and put the real option perspective and financial friction perspective under the same framework to construct economic policy uncertainty. The theoretical framework that affects the level ofIII investment expenditure and investment efficiency of enterprises, and identifies the perspective of real options is more suitable to explain the changes in investment behavior of listed companies in China's manufacturing industry under uncertain economic policies. It is the enrichment and expansion of existing research. (2) In view of the existing literature, the uncertainty of economic policy affects the investment behavior of enterprises, focusing on the limitations of investment expenditure level. This paper examines the investment behavior under the uncertainty of economic policy from the two dimensions of enterprise investment expenditure and investment efficiency. It also examines the moderating role played by growth opportunities and external demand heterogeneity. It has certain guiding significance for heterogeneous enterprises to choose appropriate investment behavior under the impact of economic policy uncertainty. Keywords: economic policy uncertainty; corporate investment behavior; real options; financial friction; corporate heterogeneityIV 目 录 摘要...............................................................................................................................I ABSTRACT.................................................................................................................II 第 1 章 导论................................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景与意义...............................................................................................1 1.1.1 研究背景.....................................................................................................1 1.1.2 研究意义.....................................................................................................2 1.2 国内外研究动态...............................................................................................3 1.2.1 经济政策不确定性.....................................................................................3 1.2.2 企业投资行为的影响因素.........................................................................6 1.2.3 经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为.........................................................7 1.2.4 文献评价.....................................................................................................8 1.3 研究思路、基本框架及主要内容...................................................................9 1.3.1 研究思路.....................................................................................................9 1.3.2 基本框架及主要内容...............................................................................10 1.4 研究方法.........................................................................................................11 1.5 论文的创新之处.............................................................................................12 第 2 章 经济政策不确定性影响企业投资行为的理论分析..................................13 2.1 经济政策不确定性理论.................................................................................13 2.1.1 不确定性的概念、来源与分类...............................................................13 2.1.2 经济政策不确定性的测量.......................................................................13 2.2 企业投资理论.................................................................................................15 2.2.1 新古典投资理论.......................................................................................15 2.2.2 托宾 Q 投资理论......................................................................................15 2.2.3 不可逆性投资理论...................................................................................16 2.3 经济政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响.................................................16 2.3.1 实物期权视角下经济政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响...............16 2.3.2 金融摩擦视角下经济政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响...............17 2.4 经济政策不确定性与异质性企业投资行为.................................................18 2.4.1 企业成长机会异质性...............................................................................18 2.4.2 企业外部需求异质性...............................................................................19V 第 3 章 研究设计......................................................................................................21 3.1 概念模型与研究假设.....................................................................................21 3.1.1 概念模型...................................................................................................21 3.1.2 研究假设...................................................................................................21 3.2 数据来源和企业样本筛选.............................................................................23 3.3 变量的选择.....................................................................................................24 3.4 描述性统计.....................................................................................................25 3.4.1 中国经济政策不确定性与企业投资的变动趋势...................................25 3.4.2 企业层面变量的描述性统计...................................................................27 第 4 章 实证分析......................................................................................................28 4.1 实证过程.........................................................................................................28 4.1.1 检验经济政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响...................................28 4.1.2 检验不同视角下经济政策不确定性对企业投资行为的影响...............29 4.1.3 检验经济政策不确定性对异质性企业投资行为的影响.......................33 4.2 结果分析与讨论.............................................................................................36 4.3 稳健性检验.....................................................................................................38 第 5 章 研究结论与政策建议..................................................................................40 5.1 主要结论.........................................................................................................40 5.1.1 经济政策不确定性对企业投资行为的直接影响...................................40 5.1.2 实物期权视角下的经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为.......................40 5.1.3 金融摩擦视角下的经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为.......................41 5.1.4 企业成长机会对经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为的调节...............41 5.1.5 企业外部需求对经济政策不确定性与企业投资行为的调节...............42 5.2 政策建议.........................................................................................................42 5.2.1 企业层面...................................................................................................42 5.2.2 政府层面...................................................................................................43 结束语..........................................................................................................................45