摘要 随着我国经济的飞速发展及投资者理财观念的不断增强，居民对理财产品的需求 不断增加。国内商业银行为适应这一变化，不断推出个人理财产品，极大地丰富了个 人理财产品的数量，个人理财产品已发展成为商业银行新的利润增长点。2018年4月， 中国人民银行出台新规，鼓励外资法人金融机构进入，这有利于国内金融机构学习国 外先进经验，同时有利于国内金融市场的健康可持续发展。伴随着利率市场化进程的 持续推进及存贷款利差的进一步压缩，使得商业银行个人理财业务发展成为新的机遇。 然而目前个人理财业务的发展现状仍存在着制度不完善、市场不规范、收益率定价不 均衡、涨跌原因不明朗等问题，使得理财产品市场发展成效仍有待提升。因此，研究 影响商业银行个人理财产品收益率的影响因素，客观评价各因素的影响程度及影响方 向，对商业银行设计及和投资者购买理财产品都具有重要的意义。 本文梳理和借鉴了国内外关于商业银行理财产品收益率方面的研究成果和实践经 验，以投资组合理论、生命周期理论为指导，分析了当前国内个人理财产品的发展现 状及发展历程，理论分析了我国商业银行个人理财产品收益率的影响因素，包括外部 宏观影响因素及内部设计因素，选取11家商业银行2005年初至2018年底发行的422 款比较有代表性的理财产品进行实证分析，构建了外部因素的时间回归模型及内部因 素的截面回归模型，确定了各影响因素与收益率的关系及影响程度。最后依据实证分 析结论为商业银行、投资者及监管部门提出了针对性的对策建议。 本文通过实证分析，得出的主要结论为：（1）理财产品的预期收益率主要受外部 宏观因素影响，理财产品内部设计因素的影响程度相对较小。（2）影响理财产品预期 收益率最主要的外部因素是经济发展水平。（3）影响理财产品预期收益率的最主要内 部因素是银行的信用级别。（4）与理财产品预期收益率呈正相关的影响因素有经济发 展水平、通货膨胀水平、利率、上证综合指数、银行信用级别、委托期限、起购金额； 与理财产品预期收益率呈负相关的影响因素有货币供应量及终止权；保本理财的预期 收益率低于非保本理财预期收益率；浮动收益理财产品的收益率低于固定收益理财产 品的收益率。 关键词：商业银行；个人理财产品；收益率；实证分析 Abstract Abstract WiththerapiddevelopmentofChina'seconomyandtheincreasingconceptof investors'financialmanagement,thedemandofresidentsforfinancialproductsis increasing.Inordertoadapttothischange,domesticcommercialbankscontinuetolaunch personalfinancialproducts,enrichingthenumberandtypesofpersonalfinancialproducts, whichhasbecomeanewprofitgrowthpointforcommercialbanks.InApril2018,the people'sBankofChinaissuednewregulationstoencouragetheentryofforeign-funded legalpersonfinancialinstitutions,whichisconducivetothelearningofforeignadvanced experiencebydomesticfinancialinstitutionsandthehealthyandsustainabledevelopment ofdomesticfinancialmarket.Withthecontinuouspromotionofinterestratemarketization process,theinterestmarginbetweendepositsandloansisfurtherreduced,whichisan opportunityforthedevelopmentofpersonalfinancialservicesofcommercialbanks. However,atpresent,therearestillsomeproblemsinthedevelopmentofpersonalfinancial services,suchasimperfectsystem,nonstandardmarket,unbalancedrateofreturnpricing, unclearreasonsfortheriseandfall,whichmakethedevelopmenteffectoffinancial productsmarketstilltobeimproved.Therefore,itisofgreatsignificanceforcommercial banksandinvestorstodesignandpurchasefinancialproductstostudytheinfluencing factorsofpersonalfinancialproductyieldandtoobjectivelyevaluatethedegreeand directionofitsinfluence. Thispaperreviewsanddrawsontheresearchresultsandpracticalexperienceof financialproductyieldofcommercialbanksathomeandabroad,andanalyzesthecurrent situationanddevelopmentprocessofdomesticpersonalfinancialproductunderthe guidanceofportfoliotheoryandlifecycletheory,theoreticallyanalyzestheinfluencing factorsofpersonalfinancialproductyieldofcommercialbanksinChina,includingmacro influencingfactorsandinternaldesignfactors,andselects422relativelyrepresentative financialproductsissuedby11commercialbanksfromthebeginningof2005totheendof 2018forempiricalanalysis,constructedthetimeregressionmodelofexternalfactorsand cross-sectionregressionmodelofinternalfactors.determinedtherelationshipandinfluence degreeofeachinfluencingfactorandyield.Finally,accordingtotheconclusionof empiricalanalysis,thepaperputsforwardsomecountermeasuresandsuggestionsfor commercialbanks,investorsandregulators. Throughempiricalanalysis,themainconclusionsareasfollows:(1)Theexpectedrate ofreturnoffinancialproductsismainlyaffectedbyexternalmacrofactors,andtheinternal designfactorsoffinancialproductsarelessthanexternalmacrofactors.(2)Themost importantexternalfactoraffectingtheexpectedreturnoffinancialproductsisthelevelof economicdevelopment.(3)Themostimportantinternalfactoraffectingtheexpectedreturn offinancialproductsisthecreditratingofbanks.(4)Theinfluencingfactorsthatare positivelyrelatedtotheexpectedrateofreturnoffinancialproductsareeconomic Abstract developmentlevel,inflationlevel,interestrate,ShanghaiCompositeIndex,bankcredit level,commissionperiodandstartingpurchaseamount;Theinfluencingfactorsthatare negativelyrelatedtotheexpectedreturnoffinancialproductsaremoneysupplyand terminationright;theexpectedreturnofprincipalguaranteedfinancialproductsislower thanthatofnonprincipalguaranteedfinancialproducts;thereturnoffloatingincome financialproductsislowerthanthatoffixedincomefinancialproducts. KeyWords:commercialbanks;personalfinancialproducts;yield;empiricalanalysis 目录 目录 第1章绪论.............................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景及意义........................................................................................................1 1.1.1研究背景.........................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究目的.........................................................................................................1 1.1.3研究意义.........................................................................................................2 1.2国内外研究现状........................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外研究现状.................................................................................................2 1.2.2国内研究现状.................................................................................................4 1.2.3文献述评.........................................................................................................5 1.3主要研究内容及方法................................................................................................6 1.3.1主要研究内容.................................................................................................6 1.3.2研究方法.........................................................................................................6 1.4创新点........................................................................................................................6 第2章相关概念及理论基础.................................................................................................8 2.1相关概念....................................................................................................................8 2.1.1商业银行个人理财产品.................................................................................8 2.1.2个人理财产品收益率...................................................................................11 2.2理论基础..................................................................................................................11 2.2.1投资组合理论...............................................................................................11 2.2.2生命周期理论...............................................................................................12 2.2.3金融创新理论...............................................................................................13 第3章商业银行个人理财产品收益率影响因素理论分析...............................................14 3.1外部影响因素..........................................................................................................14 3.1.1宏观经济因素...............................................................................................