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硕士毕业论文_都市轨道交通PPP项目回报及风险分担机制研究

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I 摘要 PPP 模式自上世纪 90 年代开始在全世界发展推进,英国是最开始兴起的地方, 此后相继在美国、澳大利亚、加拿大、日本等国家得到广泛响应。新世纪以来, PPP 模式开始在我国推行,国家开始逐步出台政策文件,2013 年首次提出允许社 会资本参与重点市政领域,我国开始正式推行。随后我国步入 PPP 政策文件快速 制定期,国务院及其部委有关 PPP 的文件政策开始不断印发,各地推行越来越规 范。比如 2014 年,国务院发布了 60 号文件,强调要鼓励社会资本参与城市建设; 2015 年,国家发布了 42 号文件,首次明确提出要盘活存量项目。随着基础设施建 设资金需求不断增大,推广实施 PPP 模式成为合规的现实选择。 本文主要从绪论、PPP 模式研究概述、成都市轨道交通 PPP 项目回报机制研 究、成都市轨道交通 PPP 项目风险分担机制研究、有关结论与建议五个章节等进 行分析;主要采用了文献研究法、数据分析法、案例分析法以及总结分析法等方 法进行具体分析研究,通过上述方法,对成都地铁各阶段要素构成及影响因子等 方面进行了剖析研究,研究目的是通过对国内外PPP模式现行经验进行学习吸收, 对存在的问题加以甄别判断,重点分析研究项目回报及风险分担机制。旨在研究 解决三个关键问题:一是建立系统监管体系,从监管角度来说,PPP 模式在我国发 展较为滞后,相应的监管体系更未系统建立,与发展需求不匹配。二是建立科学 利益回报机制,从回报机制看,政府往往将重点放在社会资本引入上,忽视了项 目的效益,回报构成及机制研究不够透彻。三是建立合理风险分担机制,从风险 分担角度看,财政承受能力报告过多的将不合理的风险转嫁政府承担,分担范围 及机制均不统一、明确,亟需厘清风险承担原则、范围及分担比例等。 经过前文的研究分析,本文最后总结了政策法规方面、资金回报方面、风险 分担方面等存在的问题,比如存在法规政策不够健全、财政资金依存度过高、收 益固化、缺乏合理风险分担机制、运营策略单一等具体问题;进而有针对性地从 完善政策、降低风险、拓宽收益、拓宽成本、推广 TOD 综合开发等五个方面,提 出了包括完善轨道 PPP 相关政策、完善风险分担机制、加强风险管理、深挖经营 潜力、吸引民企降低成本、推广 TOD 开发等十三条具体建议。 关键词:PPP 模式,回报机制,风险分担,政策建议ABSTRACT II ABSTRACT PPP mode has been developed and promoted in the world since 1990s. Britain is the first place to rise, the PPP model has been implemented in China, and the government has gradually issued policy documents. In 2013, it was first proposed to allow social capital to participate in key municipal areas, and China began to implement it formally. After that, China stepped into the period of rapid formulation of PPP policy documents. The documents and policies related to PPP of the State Council and its ministries and commissions began to be issued continuously, and the implementation was more and more standardized. For example, in 2014, the State Council issued document No. 60, emphasizing the need to encourage social capital to participate in urban construction; in 2015, the state issued document No. 42, which clearly proposed to revitalize the existing projects for the first time. Through the subway case, the purpose of the study is to learn and absorb the current experience of PPP mode at home and abroad, identify and judge the existing problems, and focus on the analysis of project return and risk sharing Mechanism. This research aims to study and solve three key issues: first, to establish a systematic regulatory system. From the perspective of supervision, the development of PPP model in China is relatively lagging behind, and the corresponding regulatory system has not been established systematically, which does not match the development needs. The second is to establish a scientific interest return mechanism. From the perspective of the return mechanism, the government often focuses on the introduction of social capital, ignoring the benefits of projects, and the research on the composition and mechanism of returns is not thorough enough. The third is to establish a reasonable risk sharing mechanism. From the perspective of risk sharing, excessive reporting of financial affordability will transfer the unreasonable risk to the government, and the scope and mechanism of sharing are not unified and clear. It is urgent to clarify the principle, scope and proportion of risk sharing. After the above research and analysis, this research finally summarizes the problems in the aspects of policies and regulations, capital returns, risk sharing, such as imperfect laws and policies, high dependence on financial funds, fixed income, lack of reasonable risk sharing mechanism, single operation strategy and other specific problems; and then, it puts forward targeted measures to improve policies, reduce risksABSTRACT III and broaden income. The research puts forward 13 specific suggestions, including improving the relevant policies of rail PPP, improving the risk sharing mechanism, strengthening risk management, tapping business potential, attracting private enterprises to reduce costs, and promoting TOD development. Key words: Public-Private Partnership Reward mechanism risk sharing policy suggestion目录 IV 目录 第一章 绪论.................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 论文研究的背景 ............................................................................................... 1 1.1.1 有关政策规定的起源与发展 ................................................................ 2 1.1.2 现行政策下政府平台公司融资受限 .................................................... 4 1.1.3 当前财政收支矛盾较为严重 ................................................................ 4 1.2 研究目的及意义 ............................................................................................... 6 1.2.1 论文研究的目的 .................................................................................... 6 1.2.2 论文研究的意义 .................................................................................... 7 1.3 分析思路与研究方法 ....................................................................................... 7 1.3.1 分析思路 ................................................................................................ 7 1.3.2 研究路线及方法 .................................................................................... 7 第二章 PPP 模式研究概述 ............................................................................................ 9 2.1 PPP 模式概述 .................................................................................................... 9 2.1.1 PPP 模式的起源与发展 ......................................................................... 9 2.1.2 国外研究概述 ........................................................................................ 9 2.1.3 国内研究概述 ...................................................................................... 10 2.2 成都轨道交通实施 PPP 模式的重要性 .........................................................11 2.2.1 能够拓展融资来源,满足建设资金需求 .......................................... 12 2.2.2 能够共享投资收益,共担潜在风险支出 .......................................... 12 2.2.3 能够吸收社会资本经验,提高建设运营质量 .................................. 12 第三章 成都市轨道交通 PPP 项目回报机制研究 ..................................................... 14 3.1 影响回报机制的关键因素 ............................................................................. 14 3.1.1 一定的政府资源支持 .......................................................................... 14 3.1.2 明显的客流量带动作用 ...................................................................... 14 3.1.3 合理的盈利空间 .................................................................................. 15 3.1.4 科学的利益分配机制 .......................................................................... 16 3.1.5 完备的政策法规 .................................................................................. 16 3.2 成都地铁 PPP 项目收益的回报构成 ............................................................ 16 3.2.1 客运收入 .............................................................................................. 17 3.2.2 非客运服务业务收益 .......................................................................... 17目录 V 3.2.3 政府补贴 .............................................................................................. 17 3.3 成都地铁 SPV 公司政府补贴模式选择........................................................ 17 3.3.1 采用车公里补助模式 .......................................................................... 17 3.3.2 采用缺口补助模式 .............................................................................. 18 3.3.3 缺口补助模型分析 .............................................................................. 19 3.4 成都地铁 SPV 公司案例分析........................................................................ 22 3.4.1 合理的股权结构及控制权 .................................................................. 22 3.4.2 给予足额资本金支持 .......................................................................... 22 3.4.3 较低的债务融资利率 .......................................................................... 24 3.4.4 资本回报及投资收益分析 .................................................................. 24 第四章 成都市轨道交通 PPP 项目风险分担机制研究 ............................................. 26 4.1 PPP 模式的三大特点 ...................................................................................... 26 4.2 项目风险主要分析方法 ................................................................................. 27 4.2.1 主要分析方法 ...................................................................................... 27 4.2.2 成都地铁采用的分析计算方法 .......................................................... 27 4.3 主要风险构成案例分析 ................................................................................. 29 4.3.1 工程前期风险 ...................................................................................... 29 4.3.2 项目融资风险 ...................................................................................... 30 4.3.3 工程建设风险 ...................................................................................... 30 4.3.4 项目运营风险 ...................................................................................... 31 4.3.5 项目移交风险 ...................................................................................... 32 4.3.6 不可抗力与法律和政策变动风险 ...................................................... 32 4.4 完善项目监管体系 ......................................................................................... 36 4.4.1 主要监管原则 ...................................................................................... 36 4.4.2 政府监管的现状 .................................................................................. 36 4.4.3 主要监管内容 ...................................................................................... 38 第五章 有关结论与建议.............................................................................................. 39 5.1 成都市轨道交通 PPP 模式存在的问题 ........................................................ 39 5.1.1 政策法规方面存在的问题 .................................................................. 39 5.1.2 资金回报方面存在的问题 .................................................................. 41 5.1.3 风险分担方面存在的问题 .................................................................. 43 5.2 成都轨道交通 PPP 模式可持续发展的建议 ................................................ 44 5.2.1 完善政策层面的有关建议 .................................................................. 44目录 VI 5.2.2 降低风险层面的有关建议 .................................................................. 46 5.2.3 拓宽收益层面的有关建议 .................................................................. 47 5.2.4 降低成本层面的有关建议 .................................................................. 48 5.2.5 推广 TOD 综合开发层面的有关建议 ............................................... 49 第六章 全文总结.......................................................................................................... 50 6.1 全文简要小结 ................................................................................................. 50 6.2 成都轨道 PPP 模式取得的主要成果 ............................................................ 50 6.2.1 能够创新融资模式,有效解决融资问题 .......................................... 50 6.2.2 能够优化责任比例,切实降低融资风险 .......................................... 51 6.2.3 能够推动地铁建设,大力完善城市交通 .......................................... 51 6.2.4 能够吸引社会资本,科学降低财政支出 .......................................... 51 6.3 不足与展望 ..................................................................................................... 52 致谢................................................................................................................................ 53