I 摘要 随着全球化进程的进一步加速，全球性采购使供应链在时间和空间上都得 到延伸与发展。虽然全球采购是基于降低成本的预期，但国际背景下供应链网 络愈加错综复杂，以及随着政治因素、自然灾害等外部环境不确定因素的增加， 都导致了供应链更加脆弱与潜在风险扩大。全球采购涉及众多的环节，风险节 点多，其中的任何环节出现中断都会造成下游损失的几何放大，产生“牛鞭效 应”，传染至其他环节。如何降低供应链中断带来的损失，成为全球企业面临 的一个关键问题。 本文从制造商的角度出发，研究供应链中断风险对国外有竞争力的主供应 商、国内供应商、制造商的影响。根据多数企业存在三级供应链结构，本文假 设只存在三级供应链进行数学建模，旨在从利润以及国内供应商零配件良品率 等角度，研究制造商在基本双源采购模型下，因突发事件造成供应中断从而导 致制造商采购策略及利润的变化，同时也为供应链中断风险下如何管理提供相 应的建议。 本文建立一个三级供应链系统：有竞争力的国外主供应商，无竞争力的国 内供应商和制造商以及终端市场，结合政策因素，以双源采购为基本模型,选取 有竞争力的主供应商中断供应为风险因素，研究因突发事件或质量因素等导致 供应中断下采取的单源采购模型，分析政策对制造商和供应商的影响，以及国 内供应商生产产品的良品率对制造商应对供应中断的重要性。结果显示，政策 对供应链成员都有影响，主供应商受政策的间接影响，制造商与国内供应商受 直接作用与其自身的政策影响。通过单双源采购三种情形下的比较，在双源采 购与向主供应商单源采购的情形下，制造商的采购成本呈现下降趋势，制造商 会选择双源采购来降低成本；在向主供应商单源采购与国内供应商单源采购的 情形下，当国内供应商良品率达到临界值时，制造商选择向国内供应商进行单 源采购，当国内供应商良品率小于临界值时，制造商选择向主供应商单源采购； 在双源采购与向国内供应商单源采购的情形下，主供应商的策略与制造商的策 略在国内供应商良品率大于阙值出现明显不同，主供应商倾向向国内供应商单 源采购，制造商倾向双源采购。基于制造商利润最大化角度的采购策略为良品 率小于阙值时，向有竞争力的主供应商单源采购，良品率大于阙值时双源采购； 基于整体供应链利润进行采购决策时，当良品率小于临界值时，制造商选择向华侨大学硕士学位论文 II 有竞争力的主供应商单源采购，当良品率介于临界值与阙值之间时，制造商选 择双源采购，当良品率大于阙值时，制造商选择向国内供应商单源采购。 关键词：制造商；供应链中断风险；采购策略；政策Abstract III Abstract With the further acceleration of the globalization process, the supply chain has been extended and developed in both time and space. Although global procurement is based on the expectation of cost reduction, the intricate network structure and the external environment that keeps pace with the situation exacerbate the vulnerability of the supply chain, and there is a potential risk expansion problem. Global procurement involves many links, and there are many risk nodes. Any disruption in any link will be geometrically magnified, resulting in a “bullwhip effect”, which will lead to a more normal performance level in the supply chain, and become a critical issue of global enterprise. From the perspective of the manufacturer, this paper examines the impact of supply disruption risks on foreign competitive main suppliers, domestic suppliers, and manufacturers. By assuming that there are only three levels of supply chain for mathematical modeling, it is intended to study the manufacturer's procurement strategy due to unexpected supply disruption under the basic dual-source procurement model from the perspective of profit and domestic supplier spare parts yield. And changes in profits, but also provide corresponding recommendations for further improving supply chain risk management. This paper establishes a three-level supply chain system: competitive foreign main suppliers, uncompetitive domestic suppliers and manufacturers, as well as the terminal market, This paper selects the competitive main supplier as the risk factor, studies the single source procurement model under the supply interruption caused by the emergency or quality factors, analyzes the impact of policies on manufacturers and suppliers, and the importance of the good product rate of domestic suppliers to manufacturers in response to supply interruption. The results show that the policy has an impact on the members of the supply chain, the main supplier is indirectly affected by the policy, the manufacturer and the domestic supplier are directly affected by their own policies. Through the comparison of three cases of single and dual source procurement, in the case of dual source procurement and single source procurement from the main supplier, the manufacturer's procurement cost shows a downward trend,华侨大学硕士学位论文 IV and the manufacturer will choose dual source procurement to reduce the cost; in the case of single source procurement from the main supplier and single source procurement from the domestic supplier, when the yield of the domestic supplier reaches the critical value, the manufacturer will choose to choose domestic When the yield rate of domestic suppliers is less than the critical value, the manufacturer chooses to purchase from the main supplier and single source. In the case of dual source purchase and single source purchase from domestic suppliers, the yield rate of domestic suppliers is significantly different from that of manufacturers. The main supplier tends to purchase from the domestic supplier and single source Tend to double sourcing. The purchasing strategy based on the manufacturer's profit maximization is that when the yield rate is less than the threshold value, the company purchases from the competitive main supplier in a single source, and when the yield rate is greater than the threshold value, the company purchases from the competitive main supplier in a single source. When the yield rate is less than the threshold value, the company chooses to purchase from the competitive main supplier in a single source, and when the yield rate is between the threshold value and the threshold value During this period, the manufacturer chooses to purchase from two sources. When the yield is greater than the threshold, the manufacturer chooses to purchase from a single source of domestic suppliers. Keywords: Manufacturer;Supply chain disruption risk;Procurement目录 V 目 录 第 1 章 绪论...............................................................................................................1 1.1 研究背景..........................................................................................................1 1.2 研究意义..........................................................................................................2 1.2.1 理论意义...................................................................................................3 1.2.2 现实意义...................................................................................................3 1.3 研究内容、方法和技术路线图......................................................................4 1.3.1 研究内容...................................................................................................4 1.3.2 研究方法...................................................................................................6 1.2.3 技术路线图...............................................................................................6 1.4 本文创新点......................................................................................................7 第 2 章 理论基础与文献综述...................................................................................8 2.1 理论基础..........................................................................................................8 2.1.1 供应链管理理论.......................................................................................8 2.1.2 供应链契约理论.......................................................................................9 2.2 文献综述........................................................................................................10 2.2.1 供应链中断的概念.................................................................................10 2.2.2 供应链中断的研究现状......................................................................... 11 2.2.3 供应链中断的风险管理.........................................................................13 2.2.4 采购策略研究.........................................................................................14 2.2.5 文献述评.................................................................................................17 第 3 章 采购策略风险分析.....................................................................................19 3.1 供应中断影响因素分析................................................................................19 3.2 模型描述........................................................................................................21 3.3 双源采购基本模型........................................................................................24 3.3.1 双源采购模型.........................................................................................24 3.3.2 双源采购模型求解.................................................................................24 3.3.3 双源采购模型推论.................................................................................26华侨大学硕士学位论文 VI 3.4 本章小结........................................................................................................34 第 4 章 供应链中断下单双源采购策略分析...........................................................36 4.1 风险因素分析................................................................................................36 4.2 向有竞争力的国外主供应商单源采购模型................................................36 4.2.1 向主供应商单源采购模型.....................................................................36 4.2.2 向主供应商单源采购模型求解.............................................................37 4.2.3 向主供应商单源采购模型推论.............................................................38 4.3 向国内供应商单源采购模型........................................................................40 4.3.1 向国内供应商单源采购模型.................................................................40 4.3.2 向国内供应商单源采购求解.................................................................41 4.3.3 向国内供应商单源采购推论.................................................................41 4.4 两种单源采购模型比较分析........................................................................47 4.4.1 单源采购采购下制造商的利润.............................................................47 4.4.2 单源采购采购下有竞争力的国外主供应商的利润.............................48 4.5 双源采购与向国内供应商单源采购比较分析............................................49 4.5.1 制造商双源采购与向国内供应商单源采购的分析.............................49 4.5.2 主供应商在制造商双源采购与向国内供应商单源采购的分析.........50 4.6 供应中断风险前后供应链利润的比较分析................................................52 4.7 本章小结..........................................................................................................54 第 5 章 数值分析与讨论...........................................................................................56 5.1 良品率对采购决策的影响分析......................................................................56 5.2 良品率对总供应链的影响分析......................................................................59 5.3 政策对链成员的影响分析..............................................................................61 5.4 本章小结..........................................................................................................63 5.5 建议..................................................................................................................64 第 6 章 结论与展望.................................................................................................65 6.1 结论..................................................................................................................65 6.2 未来研究展望..................................................................................................67