随着低碳环保，可持续发展的理念逐渐发展以及社会公众的关注度不断增加， 加上人们在环保、全球气候变化等方面的认识更加深入，国家政府也出台了一系列 的倾斜性政策，使得照明产品市场中出现了一场全新的革命。一些商家以及消费者 大众更加倾向于新型性能照明装置，而LED产品因为其稳定的性能、多方位的优势 迅速在市场中站稳了脚跟，表现出一片生机勃勃之势。随着LED行业的迅速崛起， LED制造企业面临的竞争力日益递增。作为制造企业，存货对制造企业的资本利用 水平以及资产运营效率起到了至关重要的租用。因此一些公司开始引进库存管理的 思想，并取得了积极的效果，很大程度上压缩了企业的运营成本。库存中成品数目 减少，提高了资金周转能力，一定程度上提升了产品的交付能力，从而提高企业的 运营能力。 本文通过针对H公司的库存管理现状的阐述，指出H公司存在库存周转率低下， 呆滞占比大，员工库存管理意识浅薄等问题，本文通过一系列的数据来反应H公司 的这些库存管理问题，例如呆滞占比大，库存周转差，库存管理意识薄弱，备货模 式粗放，没有科学的销售预测模型等。 针对H公司面临的库存管理现状问题，分析了库存管理的问题所在，分析了库 存管理的问题原因，从销售端出发，本文利用了SPSS软件对销售预测数据进行了 自动化处理和分析，结合灰色预测模型理论提出了H公司的销售预测模型预测了H 公司的下年销售数据。运用了ABC重点控制法，EOQ模型等计算了库存管理优化 后的库存情况，节约的成本。通过库存优化后的数据和优化前的数据比对，来证明 本文提出的库存管理优化策略的可行性，为企业带来更多的收益。同时，通过此案 例也为公司其他的库存管理改进提供借鉴，巩固和发展了H公司库存管理的内容和 架构。其他制造型企业也可以借鉴H公司的库存管理优化策略模式，来优化自己的 库存管理。 基于销售预测分析的H公司LED产品库存管理优化策略 2 关键词： 库存优化策略，灰色预测模型，ABC重点控制法，经济批量， MRP 基于销售预测分析的H公司LED产品库存管理优化策略 3 OPTIMIZING STRATEGY OF INVENTORY MANAGEMENT OF LED PRODUCTS IN H COMPANY BASED ON SALES FORECASTING ANALYSIS ABSTRACT With the gradual development of low-carbon and environmental protection, the concept of sustainable development and the increasing attention of the public, as well as people's deeper understanding of environmental protection and global climate change, the national government has also introduced a series of preferential policies, making a new revolution in the lighting product market. Some businesses and consumers prefer new performance lighting devices, and LED products have quickly gained a foothold in the market due to their stable performance and multi-directional advantages, showing a vibrant trend. With the rapid rise of LED industry, LED manufacturers are facing increasing competitiveness. As a manufacturing enterprise, inventory plays a crucial role in the utilization of capital and the efficiency of asset operation. Therefore, some companies began to introduce the idea of inventory management, and achieved positive results, greatly reducing the operating costs of enterprises. The number of finished products in inventory decreased, which improved the capital turnover ability and to some extent the delivery ability of products, thus improving the operation ability of enterprises. This article through to the present situation of H company's inventory management, points out that H company inventory turnover rate is low, dull than the big, staff problem such as inventory management consciousness, in this paper, through a series of data to reflect the H company of the inventory management problems, such as dull than the big, inventory turnover, inventory management consciousness weak, extensive stock model, there is no scientific sales forecast model and so on. 基于销售预测分析的H公司LED产品库存管理优化策略 4 For H company is faced with the problem of inventory management status, analyzes the problem of inventory management, analysis the reason of the inventory management problems, starting from the sales side, this paper used the SPSS software to sales forecasts for the automation of data processing and analysis, combining the theory of grey prediction model proposed H company's sales forecast model to predict the next year of H company sales data. ABC key control method and EOQ model were used to calculate the inventory situation after the optimization of inventory management and save the cost. By comparing the data after inventory optimization with the data before inventory optimization, the feasibility of the inventory management optimization strategy proposed in this paper is proved and more benefits are brought to the enterprise. At the same time, this case also provides reference for other company's inventory management improvement, consolidating and developing the content and structure of H company's inventory management. Other manufacturing enterprises can also learn from H company's inventory management optimization strategy model to optimize their own inventory management. KEYWORDS: Inventory optimization strategy，GM(1，1) ，ABC key control method ， EOQ，MRP 基于销售预测分析的H公司LED产品库存管理优化策略 5 目 录 摘要 .............................................. 1 ABSTRACT ........................................ 3 第一章 绪论 ....................................... 1 第一节 研究背景 ................................................ 1 一、社会背景 ........................................................ 1 二、企业背景 ........................................................ 3 第二节 研究意义 ................................................. 3 一、理论意义 ........................................................ 3 二、实际意义 ........................................................ 3 第三节 研究目标和内容 ........................................... 4 一、研究目标 ........................................................ 4 二、研究内容 ........................................................ 5 第四节 研究方法和技术路线 ........................................ 7 一、研究方法 ........................................................ 7 二、技术路线 ........................................................ 8 第五节 研究难点和创新点 .......................................... 8 一、研究难点 ........................................................ 8 二、研究创新点 ...................................................... 9 第二章 基础理论与研究综述......................... 10 第一节 库存管理及其相关模型策略 .................................. 10 一、重要概念阐述 ................................................... 10 二、库存管理策略 ................................................... 11 三、库存管理策略研究综述 ........................................... 13 第二节 销售预测模型理论基础 ..................................... 15 一、销售预测方法概论 ............................................... 15 二、销售预测方法分类 ............................................... 16 基于销售预测分析的H公司LED产品库存管理优化策略 6 三、销售预测方法梳理 ............................................... 19 第三章 H公司库存现状问题及分析 .................... 20 第一节 H公司概况 .............................................. 20 一、H公司简介 ..................................................... 20 二、H公司LED产品简介 ............................................ 20 第二节 H公司库存管理现状 ....................................... 21 一、H公司备货流程现状 ............................................. 21 二、H公司销售预测现状 ............................................. 22 三、H公司库存现状 ................................................. 24 第三节 H公司库存管理存在的问题 .................................. 25 一、问题背景介绍 ................................................... 25 二、销售预测缺乏科学性 ............................................. 26 三、库存呆滞占比大 ................................................. 26 四、库存周转率低 ................................................... 26 第四节 H公司库存管理问题分析.................................... 27 一、呆滞库存原因分析 ............................................... 28 二、库存周转效率低下原因分析 ....................................... 29 三、长库龄库存原因分析 ............................................. 29 五、库存管理手段落后 ................