21世纪以来，随着全球一体化经济的发展特别是中国加入WTO以后，我国 对外贸易规模不断增长，各国贸易往来不断密切，代理进口业务也迎来了蓬勃发 展，市场竞争不断加剧。作为代理方，大型外贸企业常常面临着收益和风险不对 等、双方权利义务不对等情况，也存在着市场占有率低、违约风险高以及经营不 当等问题。SM公司是国内领先的进口供应链服务提供商，受益于中国进口贸易 规模特别是机电产品、大宗商品等进口规模的不断增长，SM公司近年的业务范 围和业务规模得到了显著增长，但是在快速发展的同时，也面临着众多风险问题。 本文以SM公司代理进口业务风险关联为研究主题，通过实证分析、案例分 析等研究方法，对SM公司近10年的所遇到的代理进口业务风险进行了归纳， 并结合文献研究，对SM公司代理进口业务风险进行了识别，指出存在五大类风 险，包括委托方信用风险、其他客户信用风险、市场风险、政策法规风险、内部 管理风险。然后，运用层次分析法来构建SM代理进口业务的风险评价模型，得 出21个内外部风险指标的权重值，并根据重要性进行排序，找出SM公司代理 进口业务所面临的重要风险类型。根据风险评估结果，为SM公司代理进口业务 制定风险应对建议，包括完善委托人调查和审核制度、提升内部风险管理的能力、 打造信息库实现跟踪预警、提高企业业务风险应对能力。同时，本文指出应从组 织机构、人力资源、企业文化、第三方支撑四个方面为SM公司代理进口业务风 险管理提供保障。 通过研究发现，SM公司代理进口业务目前所面临的风险等级一般，但随着 国内外经济政治等各方面环境和形势的发展变化，企业需要面对的整体风险有偏 高的趋势，需要加强对风险防控体系的重视和建设，来进行风险管理和预防。本 文的研究结论对SM公司代理进口业务风险管理具有重要的指导作用，对同类业 务的风险控制具有一定的参考和借鉴意义。 关键词：代理进口，机电产品和大宗商品，风险管理 II Abstract Sincethe21stcentury,withthedevelopmentofglobalintegratedeconomy, especiallyafterChina'saccessiontoWTO,therapiddevelopmentofChina'seconomy hasledtoarapidriseinimporttrade.Thetradebetweenvariouscountrieshasbeen increasinglyclose.Asanagent,largeforeigntradeenterprisesareoftenfacedwith unequalreturnsandrisks,unequalrightsandobligationsofbothparties,andproblems suchaslowmarketshare,highriskofdefaultandimproperoperation.SM entertainmentisaleadingproviderofimportsupplychainservicesinChina.It benefitsfromthecontinuousgrowthofChina'simporttradescale,especiallythe importscaleofmechanicalandelectricalproductsandbulkcommodities.Inrecent years,itsbusinessscopeandbusinessscalehavebeensignificantlyincreased. BasedontheSMcompanyagentimportbusinessriskassociatedastheresearch subject,throughtheempiricalanalysis,caseanalysisandotherresearchmethods, nearlyadecadeofSMcompanyencounteredagentimportbusinessriskhascarriedon theinduction,andcombinedwithliteraturestudy,ontheSMcompanyagentimport businessriskrecognition,thefivekindsofrisksarepointedout,includingtheclient creditrisk,andothercustomercreditrisk,marketrisk,policyrisk,internalrisk management.Then,theanalytichierarchyprocesswasusedtoconstructtherisk evaluationmodelofSMagencyimportbusiness,andtheweightvaluesof21internal andexternalriskindicatorswereobtained.TheimportantrisktypesfacedbySM agencyimportbusinessweresortedoutaccordingtotheirimportance.Accordingto theresultofriskassessment,makeriskresponseSuggestionsforSMagencyimport business,includingimprovingtheclientinvestigationandauditsystem,improvingthe abilityofinternalriskmanagement,creatinginformationbasetorealizetrackingand earlywarning,andimprovingtheabilityofenterprisebusinessriskresponse.Atthe sametime,thispaperpointsoutthattheriskmanagementofimportbusinessagency ofSMcompanyshouldbeguaranteedfromfouraspects:organizationalstructure, humanresources,enterprisecultureandthird-partysupport. Throughtheresearch,itisfoundthattherisklevelofSMcompany'sagent importbusinessisnotveryhighrightnow,however,duetothedevelopmentand changeofdomesticandforeigneconomicandpoliticalenvironmentandsituation,the overallrisksthatenterprisesneedtofaceareonthehighside,soitisnecessaryto III strengthentheattentionandconstructionoftheriskpreventionandcontrolsystemto carryoutriskmanagementandprevention.Theresearchconclusionofthispaperhas importantguidingeffectonriskmanagementofagentimportbusinessofSM company,andhascertainreferencesignificanceforriskcontrolofsimilarbusiness. Keywords:Importagentbusiness;Mechanicalandelectronicproductsandbulk commodity;Riskmanagement IV 目录 第一章导论..................................................................................................................1 1.1研究背景..........................................................................................................1 1.2研究目的和意义..............................................................................................2 1.2.1研究目的................................................................................................2 1.2.2研究意义................................................................................................2 1.3研究分析框架..................................................................................................2 1.3.1研究内容................................................................................................2 1.3.2研究方法................................................................................................3 1.4技术路径图......................................................................................................4 第二章相关理论及文献综述......................................................................................5 2.1委托代理理论..................................................................................................5 2.2风险管理理论..................................................................................................7 2.2.1风险的定义............................................................................................7 2.2.2风险管理的内涵....................................................................................8 2.2.3风险管理的过程....................................................................................8 2.3文献研究综述................................................................................................10 2.3.1代理进口业务风险研究综述..............................................................10 2.3.2企业风险管理研究综述......................................................................11 第三章SM公司代理进口业务概述及风险识别.....................................................13 3.1SM公司基本概况..........................................................................................13 3.1.1SM公司简介........................................................................................13 3.1.2SM公司组织架构................................................................................13 3.2SM公司代理进口业务风险管理概况..........................................................14 3.2.1SM公司代理进口业务发展现状........................................................14 3.2.2SM公司代理进口业务风险管理分析................................................15 3.3SM公司代理进口业务风险识别..................................................................18 3.3.1委托方信用风险..................................................................................19 3.3.2其他客户信用风险..............................................................................20 3.3.3市场风险..............................................................................................20 3.3.4政策法规风险......................................................................................21 V 3.3.5内部管理风险......................................................................................24 第四章SM公司代理进口业务风险评价.................................................................27 4.1AHP方法的主要步骤及计算........................................................................27 4.1.1风险评价指标权重确定方法..............................................................27 4.1.2项目风险评价指标步骤及计算..........................................................27 4.2SM公司代理进口业务风险指标体系..........................................................28 4.3SM公司代理进口业务风险指标权重...............