党的十九大报告提出要坚持新发展理念，发展生态文明，这要求能源产业进行结构 优化升级，构建清洁低碳、安全高效的现代能源体系。能源发展“十三五”规划中提出， 计划到2020年我国天然气消费比重力争达到10%，而当前我国天然气供给不足，供需 矛盾突出，这直接导致天然气对外依存度不断提升。此外，天然气贸易容易受到地缘政 治的影响，在天然气定价方面缺乏相应的话语权。天然气行业的健康发展对于我国国民 经济具有重要的支撑和保障作用。因此，对天然气进口安全进行研究具有重要意义。 本文从天然气进口来源地、价格、运输三个方面对我国天然气进口安全影响因素进 行分析，以此为基础，基于PSR概念模型构建我国天然气进口安全评价体系。以2006- 2017年为评估时段，运用熵权法确定我国天然气进口安全各指标权重，通过TOPSIS法 分别对PSR准则层以及我国天然气总体进口安全水平进行评价，借助灰色关联分析法 计算各指标与我国天然气进口安全水平的关联度，据此得到我国天然气进口安全中存在 的关键问题，最后提出相应的对策建议。 结果表明：（1）我国天然气进口安全所面临的压力在2010年以后虽有增长，但是 增速相对缓慢；进口安全状态的波动性相对较大；进口安全的响应层面则稳步增长。（2） 2006-2017年我国天然气进口安全水平以2011年为拐点大致呈现“U型”，总体处于较 不安全和临界安全的状态，其中压力层面在我国天然气进口安全水平中占的比重最大。 （3）与我国天然气进口安全水平关联度较高的指标有：压力层面为我国主要天然气进 口来源地政治稳定性；状态层面为液化天然气进口价格、储采比、对外依存度；响应层 面为天然气战略储备水平，其中液化天然气进口价格的关联系数最高为0.744。（4）当 前我国天然气进口安全面临：1）对外依存度较高，存在地缘政治风险；2）天然气进口 价格被动接受；3）国内天然气供给不足；4）天然气战略储备欠佳等问题，因此提出相 应的措施以保障我国天然气的进口安全。 关键词：PSR模型；天然气；进口安全；熵权TOPSIS综合评价；灰色关联分析 ii Research on Evaluation of Imported Natural Gas Security in China Based on PSR Framework Wu Fudan (Business Administration) Directed by Prof. Li Hongxun Abstract The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to adhere to the new development concept and develop ecological civilization. This requires the energy industry to optimize its structure and build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system. China's energy development "13th Five-Year Plan" proposed that the gravity of China's natural gas consumption will reach 10% by 2020, while China's natural gas supply is insufficient, and the contradiction between supply and demand is outstanding, which directly leads to the continuous increase of natural gas dependence. In addition, the natural gas international trade which is greatly influenced by geopolitics, besides it lacks the right to speak in natural gas pricing. The healthy development of the natural gas industry has an important support and guarantee for China's national economy. Therefore, it is of great significance to explore the safety of natural gas imports. The paper analyzes the factors that affect China's natural gas import safety from three aspects: natural gas import source, price and transportation. Based on this, the PSR conceptual model is used to construct China's natural gas import safety evaluation system. The paper takes 2006-2017 as the evaluation period, the entropy weight method is used to determine the weight of each index of China's natural gas import safety. Through the TOPSIS method, the PSR criterion layer and the overall import safety of China's natural gas are comprehensively evaluated, and the grey correlation analysis method is used to calculate the relation between each index and China's natural gas import safety so as to find out the key problems about the safety of natural gas import in China, and finally the corresponding suggestions are put forward. The results show that: (1) the pressure on China's natural gas import safety has increased after 2010, but the growth rate is relatively slow; the volatility of import safety status is relatively large; the response level of import safety is growing steadily. (2) During 2006 to 2017, China's natural gas import safety level showed a “U-shaped” with a turning point in 2011, and iii the overall level was in a state of less safety and critical safety. Among them, the pressure level accounts for the largest proportion of China's natural gas import safety level. (3) At the pressure level, external dependence and political stability of China's main natural gas import source have the greatest impact on China's natural gas import safety; At the state level, LNG import price, storage-production ratio and China's natural gas import safety are highly correlated; At the response level, the correlation between natural gas strategic reserve level and China's natural gas import safety is high. (4) China's current natural gas import security faces several problems, such as: 1) holding on high dependence on foreign countries and existing in geopolitical risks; 2) facing on passive acceptance of natural gas import prices; 3) possessing insufficient supply on domestic natural gas; 4) having poor natural gas strategic reserves. Based on the key problems, putting forward to corresponding measures to ensure the safety of China's natural gas imports. Key Words: PSR model; natural gas; import safety; entropy TOPSIS method; grey correlation analysis iv 目 录 绪论 .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 ......................................................................................................... 1 研究背景 .......................................................................................................... 1 研究意义 .......................................................................................................... 3 1.2 国内外研究综述 ......................................................................................................... 4 天然气进口安全影响因素 .............................................................................. 4 PSR模型在能源安全评价中的应用 ............................................................... 5 能源安全评价方法 .......................................................................................... 6 研究综述 .......................................................................................................... 7 1.3 研究内容与方法 ......................................................................................................... 8 研究内容 .......................................................................................................... 8 研究方法 .......................................................................................................... 9 技术路线 ........................................................................................................ 10 相关理论概述 ............................................................................................................ 11 2.1 相关概念 ................................................................................................................... 11 能源安全 ........................................................................................................ 11 天然气安全 .................................................................................................... 11 天然气进口安全 ............................................................................................ 12 2.2 PSR模型理论 ............................................................................................................ 12 2.3 评价方法 ................................................................................................................... 13 常用评价方法及因素间关联度方法 ............................................................ 13 熵权法权重确定 ............................................................................................ 15 TOPSIS评价值确定 ....................................................................................... 17 灰色关联法关键