I 摘要 近年来，国内基础设施建设项目投资增速不断加快，以基础建设投资为引擎 拉动经济增长、稳定就业、提高居民生活水平、带动关联产业协同发展的作用成 效显著。新疆地处祖国西北，幅员辽阔，基础设施建设相对落后，公路项目建设 对新疆地区间经济发展的带动作用十分显著。大力发展交通运输事业，离不开金 融机构的信贷资金支持。公路项目融资规模大、融资期限长，是其主要的特征； 而项目建成后的稳定现金流为其融资也提供了足额还款保障，公路项目融资渠道 不断拓宽，从传统的银行贷款到股权+债权融资相结合、直接融资产品的运用， 极大的满足了公路项目建设资金需求；与此同时，公路项目融资风险也日趋凸显， 以往简单的风险识别与评估已不能有效满足商业银行风险管理需要。 基于高速公路项目贷款前端审查视角，如何在有效支持新疆交通运输事业发 展的同时做好项目融资风险管理至关重要，这与项目主体大量的资金需求产生一 定矛盾。如何更加科学、客观的对项目融资风险进行有效识别与评估是商业银行 面临的新课题，这就需要根据宏观经济、政策等因素的不断变化，力求在项目融 资风险识别与评估阶段实现有效风险管理。 本文以农业银行乌鲁木齐分行高速公路项目融资风险管理应对措施提供可 参考建议为研究目的，一是通过文献研究法对以往国内外研究成果进行总结分 析；二是以农业银行乌鲁木齐分行高速公路项目融资风险识别与评估作为研究对 象，引入G575线巴里坤至哈密高速公路项目作为案例进行具体分析；三是采用 调查问卷法广泛征集社会资本方、项目主体风险关注点。通过上述研究，得出农 业银行乌鲁木齐分行高速公路项目融资风险管理在识别与评估阶段的主要应对 措施，一是完善项目融资风险管理体系；二是多维度辩证分析，提高项目评估客 观性，包括考虑不同口径总投差额因素，实际融资利差因素，采用回归模型充分 验证基年通行量、增长率合理性，从宏观角度出发适度放宽对项目税后财务内部 收益率的评价。通过科学、客观的风险识别与评估方法，为今后高速公路项目融 资风险管理应对措施提供可参考建议。 关键字：农业银行;高速公路项目;融资风险;审查视角 Abstract II Abstract Inrecentyears,thegrowthrateofinvestmentindomesticinfrastructure constructionprojectshasbeenaccelerating.Withinfrastructureinvestmentasthe engine,economicgrowth,stableemployment,improvementofresidents'living standards,andthecoordinateddevelopmentofrelatedindustrieshaveachieved remarkableresults.XinjiangislocatedinthenorthwestofChina,withavastterritory andrelativelybackwardinfrastructureconstruction,sotheconstructionofhighway projectsplaysasignificantroleinpromotingtheeconomicdevelopmentofXinjiang. Tovigorouslydevelopthetransportindustry,wecannotdowithoutthesupportof financialinstitutions.Themaincharacteristicsofhighwayprojectfinancingarelarge scaleandlongterm.Thestablecashflowafterthecompletionoftheprojectalso providesfullrepaymentguaranteeforitsfinancing.Thefinancingchannelsof highwayprojectareconstantlyexpanding,fromthetraditionalbankloantothe combinationofequityanddebtfinancingtotheuseofdirectfinancingproducts, whichgreatlymeetsthecapitalneedsofhighwayprojectconstruction.Atthesame time,theriskofhighwayprojectfinancingisbecomingincreasinglyprominent,and thesimpleriskidentificationandassessmentinthepastcannolongereffectively meettheriskmanagementneedsofcommercialBanks. Basedontheperspectiveofthefront-endreviewofexpresswayprojectloans, howtoeffectivelysupportthedevelopmentofXinjiang'stransportationindustryand atthesametimedoagoodjobinprojectfinancingriskmanagementiscrucial,which hasacertaincontradictionwiththeproject'slargeamountofcapitalneeds.Howto effectivelyidentifyandevaluateprojectfinancingrisksinamorescientificand objectivewayisanewtaskfacedbycommercialBanks,whichneedstorealize effectiveriskmanagementintheidentificationandevaluationstageofproject financingrisksaccordingtotheconstantchangesofmacroeconomic,policyandother factors. Thisarticletakesthereferencesuggestionsfortheexpresswayprojectfinancing riskmanagementcountermeasuresofAgriculturalBankofUrumqiBranchasthe researchpurpose,oneistosummarizeandanalyzethepreviousresearchresultsat homeandabroadthroughtheliteratureresearchmethod;thesecondistheexpressway projectfinancingriskofAgriculturalBankofUrumqiBranchIdentifyandevaluateas Abstract III theresearchobject,introducetheG575lineBalikuntoHamihighwayprojectasa caseforspecificanalysis;thethirdistousethequestionnairemethodtowidely collecttheriskconcernsofthesocialcapitalpartyandtheprojectmainbody.Through theaboveresearch,themaincountermeasuresfortheidentificationandevaluationof highwayprojectfinancingriskmanagementoftheAgriculturalBankofUrumqi Branchareobtained.Oneistoimprovetheprojectfinancingriskmanagementsystem; theotherismultidimensionaldialecticalanalysistoimprovetheobjectivityofproject evaluation,mainlyincludingTakingintoaccounttheactualtotalinvestment differenceinprojectimplementationandtheactualfinancingspread,theregression modelisusedtofullyverifytherationalityofthebaseyear'strafficandgrowthrate, andtheevaluationoftheproject'spost-taxfinancialinternalrateofreturnis moderatelyrelaxedfromamacroperspective.Throughscientificandobjectiverisk identificationandassessmentmethods,thispaperprovidesreferenceSuggestionsfor thefutureexpresswayprojectfinancingriskmanagementmeasuresoftheUrumqi branchofagriculturalbankofChina. Keywords:AgriculturalBankofChina;Highwayproject;FinancingRisk; ReviewPerspective. 目录 IV 目录 1绪论............................................................................................................................1 1.1选题背景与研究意义......................................................................................1 1.1.1选题背景................................................................................................1 1.1.2研究内容................................................................................................2 1.1.3研究意义................................................................................................2 1.2文献综述..........................................................................................................2 1.2.1国外相关研究........................................................................................2 1.2.2国内相关研究........................................................................................4 1.2.3文献综述评价........................................................................................5 1.3研究方法及思路..............................................................................................5 1.3.1研究方法................................................................................................5 1.3.2研究思路及论文框架............................................................................6 2项目融资风险及相关理论.........................................................................................8 2.1项目融资风险概念及特征..............................................................................8 2.2项目融资风险管理理论..................................................................................8 2.3商业银行项目融资风险管理体系及理念......................................................9 2.3.1商业银行项目融资风险管理体系........................................................9 2.3.2商业银行项目融资风险管理理念......................................................10 2.3.3商业银行项目融资风险管理流程......................................................11 3农行乌鲁木齐分行高速公路项目融资风险识别与评估.......................................14 3.1农行乌鲁木齐分行高速公路项目融资系统性风险识别分析....................14 3.1.1政策、法律、经济风险识别分析......................................................14 3.1.2项目区位评价与社会效益风险识别分析..........................................14 3.2农行乌鲁木齐分行高速公路项目融资非系统性风险识别分析................15 3.2.1完工、运营管理、环保风险识别分析..............................................15 3.2.2项目主体风险识别分析......................................................................15 3.2.3项目经济效益评价风险识别分析......................................................16 3.3农行乌鲁木齐分行高速公路项目融资系统性风险评估............................16 3.3.1政策、法律、经济风险评估..............................................................17 3.3.2项目区位与社会效益风险评估...............................