|
2018-07-29
7201672011916---- Reflation16
021-68757985 xuwenyu@htfc
F0299877
8 Z0011454
2018-06-252018-05-2852018-04-232018-03-26 2018-02-26
7 7 6
2018-01-292017-12-04
FANNGS---- 11
2017-12-012017-11-23
15+
2 3 4500+
|
78
77 72016
17 ----
2000
27 ----
50
1800
40
1600 30
1400
20
1200
1000 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
10 2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Bloomberg
Wind
Bloomberg
Wind7----
2018GDP4.1% GDP1.8% GDP3% 3% 31000
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|(/) (/) QE 18
1400
1350
17 1300FEDPMI 57.3 15 2018/04 2018/07 16
1250
OPEC FED 2018/01
FED
1200 2017/10
7AVERAGE(10-17) 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2018 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150AVERAGE(12-17) 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150 Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov 2018 150 100 50 0 -50 -100 -150
Bloomberg
Wind
Bloomberg
Wind
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|8 1891968
11968-1980,2001-20111981-2000,2012-2017
860.9% 80.53%43.5%-1.12%8 55.6%80.91% 44.4% 0.16%
6 1968-2017
65% % 3 70%
7 1968-201760%60%55%50%50%40%
-2
45% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-1
30% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-4
Bloomberg
Wind
Bloomberg
Wind1968-1979&2001-2011
% 31968-1979&2001-2011
% 8
65%
70%
60%60%55%50%50%40%
-4
45% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-1
30% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-8
Bloomberg
Wind
Bloomberg
Wind2012
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|
10 1980-2000&2012-2017
60% % 1.5
11 1980-2000&2012-2017
70% % 3.0
60%
50% 0.0 50% 40% 30% 30% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec -3.0 20% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1.5
0.0 -1.5 -3.0 -4.5
40%
-1.5
Bloomberg
Wind
Bloomberg
Wind
2017 724 COMEX4.86 9.8% COMEX0.351.65%76 FANNGS% % %
13
% % %
70
60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2016/01 2016/07 2017/01 2017/07 2018/01 2018/07
70
60 50 40 30
20
10 0 -10 2016/01 2016/07 2017/01 2017/07 2018/01 2018/07
Bloomberg
Wind
Bloomberg
Wind
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|
14
8 () 35 30 4 25 20 0 15 -4
15
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 2016/01 2016/07 2017/01 2017/07 2018/01 2018/07 0 -2 6 4 2 () 10 8
10-8 2016/01 2016/07 2017/01 2017/07 2018/01 2018/07Bloomberg
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