中国农业银行 T 分行可谓是 T 市金融行业的巨头，不仅拥有最大的资产规模和客户
群体，而且其信息化服务水平最高，服务渠道也最为理想。T 分行在推出小微企业贷款
业务后，虽经历了一段不短的高速发展期，不过也不可避免的出现了风险积聚、基础不
牢固、后劲不足等一系列问题，而且日益突出。怎样提高 T 分行对小微企业的金融服务
质量与效率，提升小微企业信贷的风险管控和盈利水平，是当前 T 分行小微企业金融服
务急需解决的现实问题
本文梳理、总结银行信贷风险管理相关理论及研究动态，结合当前我国银行信贷风
险的现状情况，探讨我国银行信贷风险管理上的缺陷问题，结合农行 T 分行小微企业信
贷管理的实际案例进行分析研究，从中得出经验和教训，为后续研究的开展提供借鉴，
同时就前述明确的主要缺陷问题探讨提出具有针对性的有效解决策略
研究表明：（1）中国农业银行 T 分行小微企业信贷业务的虽然给公司带来的丰厚的
回报，然而实际风险管理中依旧存在诸多不可忽视的问题，如小微企业信贷业务服务专
员缺乏、风险管控系统不完善、风险管理质量与效率不理想等，制约着该分行小微企业
信贷风险业务的进一步发展。（2）本文通过引入功效系数法、AHP 层次分析法和 GM(1，
1)灰色预测法构建了中国农业银行 T 分行小微企业信贷风险预警系统，并通过在 T 分行
中的应用证明了该系统一方面能够实现行小微企业信贷风险的定量评估，另一方面能够
为其小微企业信贷风险提供准确的预警，降低了银行小微企业信贷风险的发生概率。（3）
为了本文所建立的小微企业信贷风险预警系统能够顺利实施，本文分别从保证培养专业
人才，引进信贷风险管理新技术、建立健全银行信贷风险管理机制、健全信用评价体制，
强化信用风险管控认知水平这三个方面探讨和提出了具体保障措施
关键词：中国农业银行 T 分行；小微企业；信贷风险；风险预警THE RESEARCH ON CREDIT RISKOFABC T BRANCH
—TAKE SMALLAND MICRO ENTERPRISES CREDIT
RISKASAN EXAMPLE
ABSTRACT
According to The Opinion about the Implementation of the Financial Support for the
Real Economy issued by the General Office of the State Council in 2013 (August 7th, 2013),
the fundamental task of the financial support for the real economy was to attach importance to
the financial services for small and micro enterprises. It was related to the social employment,
and the economic and social development.In addition, on the basis of seven aspects such as
the innovation of service forms, the strengthening of information services, and the
development of small financial institutions, it put forward some guidelines.According to The
Guidelines on Deepening the Financial Services for Small and Micro Enterprises issued by
CBRC, it was emphasized to take the interests of small and micro businesses as the core, be
focused on the financial support for the overall objective of the real economy, reduce the loan
condition for small and micro businesses appropriately, enrich the financial services for small
and micro enterprises, and further expand the breadth and width of the financial services for
small and micro enterprises. In addition, it also put forward a series of specific measures,
which reflected that CBRC had always attached great importance to the financial support for
small and micro enterprises.
The T Branch of the Agricultural Bank of China is a leader of the financial industry in T
City. It has the largest asset size and the the largest customer group. And its level of
information services is highest and its service channels are also most ideal.After launching the
loan business for small and micro enterprises, although the branch experiences a long period
of rapid development, a series of problems also inevitably appear, such as risk accumulation,
insecure foundation, and insufficient potential. Also, they become more and more
prominent.How to improve the financial service quality and efficiency of the branch for small
and micro enterprises, and how to improve the credit risk control and profitability of small
and micro enterprises, are the practical problems to be solved in the financial services of the
branch for small and micro enterprises.
In this paper, it reviewed and summarized the theory and the research trend about the
bank credit risk management. By combining the status of the bank credit risk in China, itdiscussed about the detects in the bank credit risk management in China. It analyzed and
studied the actual case about the credit management of the branch for small and micro
enterprises to draw some experience and lessons so as to provide some reference for the
further research. In addition, it discussed about the main specifical defects as above, and put
forward some effective solutions.
Through the study of this paper can get the following conclusions:(1) The credit business
of the branch for small and micro enterprises helped the company get great returns. However,
there were still many non-negligible problems in the actual risk management that restricted
the further development of the credit risk business of the branch for small and micro
enterprises, such as the fewer credit service specialists for small and micro enterprises, the
imperfect service risk management and control system, and the unsatisfactory risk
management quality and efficiency.(2) The Efficacy Coefficient Method, the AHP Analytic
Method and the GM (1, 1) Gray Forecasting Method were used in the paper to build the credit
risk early warning system of the branch for small and micro enterprises. On the one hand,
through the application in the branch, it was testified that this system could be used for the
quantitative evaluation on credit risks for small and micro enterprises. On the other hand, it
could provide an accurate credit risk early warning for small and micro enterprises, which
could reduce the incidence rate of the banking credit risk for small and micro ente
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