本文通过阐述货币供应量以及货币供应结构对宏观经济的影响,分析探讨货
币供应结构变化与通货膨胀现象的对应关系,从而研究以货币供应量结构变化预
测通货膨胀率趋势的可行性和可靠性,为中央银行事先制定和执行货币政策提供
参考。作者通过实证分析和数据模型分析方法对M1M2剪刀差与通货膨胀率(CPI)
的相关关系进行验证,证明了 :
1、货币供应量与通货膨胀率之间存在密切的相关关系,但货币供应量指标
对作为货币政策中介目标的作用在逐渐下降。
2、回顾历史,论证了货币供应结构变化与通货膨胀率变动,尤其是周期性
的变动趋势有着明显的如后关系。
3、通过分析货币政策变化对货币供应结构的影响,发现了货币供应结构的
变化反映了经济运行中客观变化,在一定程度上是市场的“自发行为”。
4、通过实证分析,证明了M1M2剪刀差与CPI有着密切的相关关系,二者具
有长期的均衡关系,能够以线性回归的方式得到验证。M1M2指标对CPI产生影响
的长期性,决定了它能够为恶性通胀或通缩提供明显的预普信号,为货币政策提
前干预创造时机。
本文的实践意义在于,通过理论分析和数据论ffi, M1M2剪刀差指标可以作为
预测通货膨胀率变动趋势的一个先行指标,通过密切关注并监测M1M2剪刀差的
变动趋势,可以提前对未来物价走势进行预测,从而及时调整货币政策的方向和
力度,完善中央银行逆周期宏观调控行为。
关键词:经济金融管理货币供应量通货膨胀宏观调控实证分析
DEMONSTRATION AND APPLIED ANALYSIS
OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CHINA'S MONEY
SUPPLYM1M2 SCISSORS AND INFLATION
ABSTRACT
Summary this paper sets out the money supply and the money supply structure on
the macro-economic impact, analysis of correspond to the structural changes and the
phenomenon of inflation of the money supply, to studies on to structural changes in
money supply feasibility and reliability of the forecast trend rate of inflation, to
advance the development and implementation of the Central Bank monetary policy
provide a reference.
Through empirical analysis and data model analysis method to Ml M2 scissors
with the rate of inflation (CPI) validated the correlation demonstrated that:
1 ,The money supply and inflation are closely correlated, but the money supply as
the intermediate target of monetary policy of the gradual decline in the role.
2,Review the history, demonstrates that monetary supply structure changes and
inflation rate changes, especially the change trend of periodic has obvious relationship
between before and after.
3, Through the analysis of the impact of monetary policy change on the money
supply structure, found that the structure of money supply change reflects the objective
changes in economic operation, to a certain extent, is a spontaneous behavior of the
market.
4, Through the empirical analysis, proved that M1M2 scissors and CPI have close
correlation, the two have a long-term equilibrium relationship, with linear regression
method is verified. The M1M2 index of long-term impact on CPI, deciclcd it could
provide early warning signals were malignant inflation or deflation, monetary policy
for the creation of the time of early intervention.
The significance of this research lies in, through the theoretical analysis and the
data argument, M1 M2 scissors index can be used as a leading indicator to predict
inilation trends, the trend closely and monitoring M1M2 scissors, can advance to
prcdict the future trend of prices, the direction and strength to adjust monetary policy,
improving the central bank to reverse cyclc macro-conlrol behavior.
KEYWORDS: analysis of economic aiul llnancial management money supply
Inflation macro-control demonstration
==>>