学校代码：10564学号：20182001002
分类号：F062.9密级：
减税对居民消费支出和结构的影响
——基于DID 模型的研究
陈美霞
指导教师：陈有华副教授
学院名称：经济管理学院
专业名称：产业经济学
答辩委员会主席：胡新艳教授
中国·广州
2021年6月
摘要
本文针对个人所得税的政策调整，研究减税对于我国居民消费支出和消费结构调
整的影响，借助2011-2015年的中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）微观面板进行分析，将样
本分为工薪家庭和个体户家庭分别进行研究，采用双重差分法（DID）和双重差分倾
向匹配得分法（PSM-DID），研究政策实施前后减税对个体户家庭和工薪家庭消费的
影响，深入分析了减税对居民消费的作用机制和政策效应。
研究发现，无论是对个体户家庭还是工薪家庭，减税都显著提高了居民的消费支
出。2013年减税促进个体户居民消费支出提高6.54%，工薪家庭提高5.36%，2015年
减税促进个体户家庭消费支出提高10.36%，工薪家庭提高5.87%。相对收入假说和流
动性约束假说表明，除了当期的收入，过去的消费习惯、消费水平和流动性约束也会
影响居民的消费。本文通过构建CHFS2011/2013和CHFS2011/2015两份面板数据进
行对照分析，证实了由于棘轮效应等原因，减税政策存在时滞，政策实施3年后的正
向效应逐渐加强。同时，本文通过构建资产负债比指标（W/D）,选取资产负债比最小
25%的样本进行回归，发现流动性约束越大的家庭，受到减税的刺激作用越明显，个
体户家庭面临的流动性约束比工薪家庭要大，因而对减税的刺激更加敏感。
减税显著促进了居民的消费支出，同时也影响了居民的消费结构调整。根据政策
实施1年和实施3年后的动态对比分析，发现无论是对于个体户家庭还是工薪家庭，
减税都显著刺激了居民在食物、衣着和生活三个方面的消费支出。2013年减税促进个
体户家庭食品支出提高7.75%，生活服务支出提高41.93%，而2015年个体户家庭交
通通信支出提高了29.03%，生活用品及服务消费支出提高35.26%，衣着支出提高
32.6%。2013年减税使工薪家庭食品支出提高13.39%，生活服务支出提高18.86%，
衣着支出提高18.11%，2015年工薪家庭较个体户家庭而言，增加了19.16%的教育娱
乐方面的支出，同时食品支出提高了13.29%，生活服务支出提高了10.86%，交通通
信支出提高13.23%。总体上，居民在居住、医疗等方面的支出并未显著增加，减税对
我国居民消费结构的调整主要集中在了食品、生活等方面，减税改善了居民的生活水
平，消费结构有所调整但是还存在进一步升级的空间。
结合理论研究和实证分析，本文在此基础上提出了一些政策建议，通过进一步深
化个人所得税改革，继续实施减税降费，充分发挥税收的收入分配调节作用，完善社
会保障体系和金融服务体系，稳定居民对未来收入和消费的预期，释放家庭消费潜能，
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促进消费升级扩容。
关键词：减税降费；居民消费支出；居民消费结构；扩大内需
II
The Impact of Tax Cuts on Residents'Consumption Expenditure
and Structure——A Research Based on the DID Model
Chen Meixia
(College of Economics and Management,South China Agricultural University,
Guangzhou,510642,China)
Abstract:This article focuses on the adjustment of the personal income tax policy and
studies the impact of tax cuts on the consumption expenditure and consumption structure
adjustment of my country's residents.It uses the 2011-2015China Household Finance Survey
(CHFS)micro-panel to analyze and divide the sample into working families and self-
employed households.Research separately,using the double difference method (DID)and
the double difference propensity matching score method (PSM-DID)to study the impact of
tax cuts on the consumption of self-employed and working families before and after the
implementation of the policy,and in-depth analysis the mechanism and policy effects of tax
cuts on household consumption.
The study found that whether it is for self-employed families or working families,tax
cuts have significantly increased residents'consumption expenditures.In 2013,tax cuts
promoted the consumption expenditure of self-employed households by 6.54%,and wage-
earning households increased by 5.36%.In 2015,tax cuts promoted the consumption
expenditure of self-employed households by 10.36%and wage earner households by 5.87%.
The relative income hypothesis and the liquidity constraint hypothesis show that in addition
to current income,past consumption habits,consumption levels,and liquidity constraints will
affect residents'consumption.This paper conducts a comparative analysis by constructing
two panel data of CHFS2011/2013and CHFS2011/2015,confirming that due to the ratchet
effect and other reasons,the tax reduction policy has a time lag,and the positive effect of the
policy has gradually strengthened after 3years of implementation.At the same time,by
constructing an asset-liability ratio indicator (W/D),this paper selects a sample with a
minimum asset-liability ratio of 25%for regression,and finds that households with greater
liquidity constraints will be sensitive to the stimulus of tax cuts.Self-employed households
face mobility restraint is greater than that of working families,so they are more
III
sensitive to tax cuts.
Tax cuts have significantly promoted residents'consumption expenditures,and at the
same time affected residents'consumption structure adjustments.According to the dynamic
comparative analysis of one year after the implementation of the policy and three years after
implementation,whether it is for self-employed families or working families,tax cuts have
significantly stimulated residents'consumption expenditures on food,clothing and daily life.
In 2013,tax cuts promoted self-employed households’food expenditures by 7.75%and living
service expenditures by 41.93%.In 2015,self-employed households’transportation and
communications expenditures increased by 29.03%,daily necessities and services
consumption expenditures increased by 35.26%,and clothing expenditures increased by
32.6%.Tax cuts in 2013increased food expenditures by working families by 13.39%,living
service expenditures by 18.86%,and clothing expenditures by 18.11%pared with self-
employed households in 2015,working families increased their education and entertainment
expenditures by 19.16%,as well as food expenditures.Increased by 13.29%,expenditure on
living services increased by 10.86%,and expenditure on transportation and communication
increased by 13.23%.In general,residents’expenditures on housing and medical services
have not increased significantly.The adjustment of the consumption structure of Chinese
residents by tax cuts is mainly concentrated in food and life.Tax cuts have improved the
living standards of residents,and the consumption structure adjusted but there is still a room
for further upgrading.
Combining theoretical research and empirical analysis,this article puts forward some
policy recommendations on this basis.By further deepening the reform of personal income
tax,continue to implement tax and fee reductions,give full play to the income distribution
effect of taxation,and improve the social security system and financial service system.
Stabilize residents'expectations of future income and consumption,release household
consumption potential,and promote consumption upgrading and expansion.
Key words：Tax reduction and fee reduction;Household consumption expenditure;
Household consumption structure;Expanding domestic demand
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