分类号密级公开
UDC 编号20213510023
硕士学位论文
（学术学位）
养老保险降费、延迟退休政策与劳动供给
——基于家庭隔代抚养视角
申请人姓名赖文昊
导师姓名及职称姚海祥教授
申请学位类别经济学硕士
学科专业名称金融工程
培养单位金融学院
学位授予单位广东外语外贸大学
2024年5月20日
分类号密级公开
UDC 编号20213510023
广东外语外贸大学硕士学位论文
（学术学位）
养老保险降费、延迟退休政策与劳动供给
——基于家庭隔代抚养视角
Pension Insurance Contribution Rate Reduction，Delayed
Retirement Policy and Labor Supply——From the Perspective
of Intergenerational Support
申请人姓名赖文昊
导师姓名及职称姚海祥教授
申请学位类别经济学硕士
学科专业名称金融工程
论文提交日期2024年5月20日
论文答辩日期2024年4月28日
答辩委员会蔡卫星教授杨科教授
卢万青教授张群副教授
梁裕珩讲师
学位授予单位：广东外语外贸大学
摘要
我国于2000年开始进入人口老龄化社会，并且老龄化程度持续深化，2023
年我国60岁及以上人口占我国总人口数的比例已达21.1%，人口老龄化对我国
的经济发展和劳动力市场造成了深远影响。养老保险降费和延迟退休是应对人口
老龄化、保持经济可持续发展的重要政策工具。本文从家庭隔代抚养的视角切入，
通过构建三期世代交叠模型，考察养老保险降费和延迟退休政策对个人终生劳动
时间和社会劳动总供给的影响。研究发现：养老保险降费增加了家庭隔代抚养时
间，使得个人成年期劳动时间与终生劳动供给增加，并且对终生劳动供给的增加
程度随着退休年龄的延长而减小；而延迟退休虽然导致隔代抚养时间和成年期劳
动时间减少，但会直接增加老年劳动时间，使得个人终生劳动供给增加。进一步
研究发现，养老保险降费和延迟退休政策会影响生育率，从而影响稳态下的社会
劳动总供给。从长期来看，延迟退休政策会显著降低生育率从而降低社会劳动总
供给，且在较高的退休年龄下，缴费率上升导致社会劳动供给总量先上升后下降。
数值模拟显示，当延迟退休至60岁时，最优养老保险缴费率为13%左右；当延
迟退休至65岁时，最优养老保险缴费率为17%左右。因此，在不同的退休年龄
下合理设置缴费率可以使社会劳动供给总量最大。最后，本文通过模拟不同的情
形得出的结果均与基准模型得出的结果基本相同，证明了模型具有稳健性。本文
获得的启示是，在人口老龄化日益严峻的态势下，应当将养老保险降费、渐进式
延迟退休与生育激励政策联动实施，通过形成合力来提高劳动供给水平。
关键词养老保险降费；延迟退休；隔代抚养；劳动供给
I
ABSTRACT
China began to enter the population aging society in 2000,and the aging degree
continues to deepen.In 2023,the proportion of people aged 60and above in the total
population in China has reached 21.1%.Aging population has caused far effect on our
country's economy development and labor market.The pension insurance contribution
rate reduction and delayed retirement policy both are important tools to deal with the
problem of population aging and maintain sustainable economic development.From
the perspective of intergenerational support,this paper examines the impact of pension
insurance contribution rate reduction and delayed retirement policy on individual
lifetime labor time and total social labor supply by constructing a three-period
overlapping generation model.The study found that the reduction of pension insurance
contribution rate can increase the time of family intergenerational support,which can
increase the labor time of individuals in adulthood and the lifetime labor supply,and
the increase degree of the lifetime labor supply decreases with the extension of
retirement age;and although delayed retirement leads to the reduction of
grandparenting time and adult labor time,it will directly increase the labor time of the
elderly and increase the lifetime labor supply of individuals.Further research finds that
pension insurance contribution rate reduction and delayed retirement policy will affect
the fertility rate,thus affecting the total supply of social labor in the steady state.In the
long run,the delayed retirement policy will significantly reduce the fertility rate and
thus the total labor supply of the society;and at a higher retirement age,the increase in
the pension insurance contribution rate causes the total social labor supply to rise first
and then decline.Numerical simulation shows that when the retirement age is 60,the
optimal pension insurance contribution rate is about 13%;When the retirement age is
65,the optimal rate is about 17%.Therefore,setting a reasonable pension insurance
contribution rate at different retirement ages can maximize the total amount of social
labor supply.Finally,the results obtained by simulating different situations are basically
the same as the results obtained by the benchmark model,which proves that the model
is robust.The enlightenment of this paper is that under the increasingly serious situation
of population aging,the pension insurance contribution rate reduction,gradual delay of
retirement and fertility incentive policies should be implemented in tandem,and the
labor supply level should be improved by forming a joint force.
Keywords pension insurance contribution rate reduction;intergenerational support;
delayed retirement;labor supply
II
目录
摘要..............................................................I
ABSTRACT ........................................................II
目录............................................................III
第1章绪论.......................................................1
1.1选题背景和意义..............................................1
1.1.1选题背景...............................................1
1.1.2选题意义...............................................3
1.2文献综述....................................................4
1.2.1关于养老保险缴费率的研究...............................4
1.2.2关于延迟退休政策的研究.................................5
1.2.3关于隔代抚养对劳动供给的影响机制研究...................6
1.2.4文献评述...............................................8
1.3研究内容与技术路线..........................................8
1.3.1研究内容...............................................8
1.3.2技术路线..............................................10
1.4研究方法...................................................10
1.4.1文献研究法............................................10
1.4.2OLG 模型分析..........................................11
1.4.3数值模拟分析..........................................11
1.5研究的创新与不足...........................................11
1.5.1研究的创新点..........................................11
1.5.2研究的不足............................................12
第2章理论模型....................................................14
2.1理论基础...................................................14
2.2模型构建...................................................15
2.2.1代表性个体............................................15
2.2.2代表性厂商............................................16
2.2.3政府部门..............................................17
2.2.4市场出清..............................................18
第3章养老保险降费和延迟退休的模型求解与分析......................19
3.1个体效用最大化.............................................19
3.2厂商利润最大化.............................................20
3.3劳动力市场与资本市场均衡...................................20
3.4均衡分析...................................................21
3.5养老保险缴费率与终生劳动供给...............................23
3.6动态一般均衡解.............................................25
3.7延迟退休与家庭隔代抚养时间.................................25
3.8延迟退休与终生劳动供给.....................................26
第4章养老保险降费和延迟退休的实证分析............................28
4.1参数校准...................................................28
4.2数值模拟...................................................29
III