分类号：学校代码：10139
U D C：学号：20210204013
Basic endowment insurance under longevity
内蒙古财经大学硕士学位论文
中文摘要
目前，中国人口老龄化程度不断加深，随之产生的长寿风险，对养老保险具
有深远的影响。基本养老保险制度作为一种重要的社会保障制度，对经济增长起
着重要的影响。为应对长寿风险及其对基本养老保险所产生的影响，政府提出了
延迟退休和养老保险降费等改革，那么，在长寿风险下，基本养老保险制度在降
费政策和延迟退休等政策的驱动下，养老保险制度应该进行怎样的改革以适应经
济的发展，保障民生，以及对经济的影响也有待深入研究，同时也是政策制定部
门必须面对的一个重要议题，具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。
本文依据经济增长相关理论和世代交叠模型，通过构建相应的模型进行研究
分析。首先，基于长寿风险背景，研究不同养老保险模式对经济增长的影响。其
次，基于长寿风险背景，考察延迟退休政策驱动下“统账结合”基本养老保险模式
对经济增长的影响。最终，基于模型分析及数值模拟结果提出养老保险制度适应
经济发展的可行的对策建议。具体来看，本文的主要研究内容：（1）归纳总结
经济增长相关理论、世代交叠模型等理论，并在此基础上从理论层面分析基本养
老保险制度对经济增长的影响，为下文奠定理论基础。（2）基于相关文献的梳
理，依托两期OLG 模型，分别以现收现付制和部分基金制两种缴费机制为研究
视角，加入养老保险降费政策，分析长寿风险下不同养老保险模式对经济增长的
影响。（3）基于相关文献的梳理，依托两期OLG 模型，结合中国现阶段的经济
发展情况进行参数估计与数值模拟，分析延迟退休政策实施是否可以逐步抵消长
寿风险下的基本养老保险对经济增长带来的影响。
本文的研究结论：（1）无论是现收现付制养老保险制度还是部分基金制养
老保险制度，人口老龄化所带来的长寿风险会通过降低人口出生率的方式导致经
济增长率降低。（2）养老保险降费政策的实施可通过提高人口出生率上升的方
式进一步促进经济增长。此外，在中国如今长寿风险背景下，部分基金制下养老
保险降费政策对经济增长的促进作用高于现收现付制。（3）延迟退休政策的实
施可促进经济增长。在名义“统账结合”制度下，延迟退休政策会影响个体对储蓄
和消费的决策，使人口出生率上升，进而促进经济增长。
本文的研究在一定程度上揭示了长寿风险背景下，基本养老保险对经济增长
的影响效果。通过加入延迟退休政策和养老保险降费政策，对其具体传导机制进
行了更加深入的探究。本研究不仅从理论层面深化了对基本养老保险与经济增长
关系的认识，而且为政府制定相关政策提供了科学依据，促进了养老制度的发展。
关键词：长寿风险；养老保险；延迟退休；养老保险降费；经济增长
内蒙古财经大学硕士学位论文
ABSTRACT
At present,the aging population in China is constantly deepening,
and the resulting longevity risks have a profound impact on pension
insurance.The basic pension insurance system,as an important social
security system,plays a significant role in economic growth.In response
to the risk of longevity and its impact on basic pension insurance,the
government has proposed reforms such as delayed retirement and pension
insurance fee reduction.However,under the driving force of policies
such as fee reduction and delayed retirement under the risk of longevity,
what kind of reform should the pension insurance system undergo to
adapt to economic development,ensure people's livelihoods,and have an
impact on the economy also needs to be further studied,It is also an
important issue that policy-making departments must face,with
significant theoretical and practical significance.
This thesis conducts research and analysis by constructing
corresponding models based on economic growth related theories and
generational overlap models.Firstly,based on the background of
longevity risk,study the impact of different pension insurance models on
economic growth.Secondly,based on the background of longevity risk,
this study examines the impact of the "unified account combination"
basic pension insurance model on economic growth driven by delayed
长寿风险下基本养老保险对经济增长的影响研究
retirement policies.Finally,based on model analysis and numerical
simulation results,feasible countermeasures and suggestions for the
adaptation of the pension insurance system to economic development are
proposed.Specifically,the main research content of this thesis are as
follow:(1)Summarize the theories related to economic growth,such as
the generational overlap model,and analyze the impact of the basic
pension insurance system on economic growth from a theoretical
perspective,laying a theoretical foundation for the following text.(2)
Based on the review of relevant literature and relying on the two OLG
models,this study takes the pay as you go and partial fund payment
mechanisms as research perspectives,and incorporates pension insurance
fee reduction policies to analyze the impact of different pension insurance
models on economic growth under longevity risk.(3)Based on the
review of relevant literature,relying on the two-stage OLG model and
combining with the current economic development situation in China,
parameter estimation and numerical simulation are conducted to analyze
whether the implementation of delayed retirement policy can gradually
offset the impact of basic pension insurance on economic growth under
the risk of longevity.
The research conclusion of this thesis are as follow:(1)Whether it is
the pay as you go pension insurance system or some fund based pension
insurance systems,the longevity risk brought by population aging will
内蒙古财经大学硕士学位论文
lead to a decrease in economic growth rate by reducing the birth rate.(2)
The implementation of the pension insurance fee reduction policy can
further promote economic growth by increasing the birth rate of the
population.In addition,in the current context of longevity risk in China,
the promotion effect of the pension insurance fee reduction policy under
some fund systems on economic growth is higher than that of the pay as
you go system.(3)The implementation of delayed retirement policies can
promote economic growth.Under the nominal "unified accounting
system",delaying retirement policies will affect individual decisions on
savings and consumption,leading to an increase in birth rates and
ultimately promoting economic growth.
This study to some extent reveals the impact of basic pension
insurance on economic growth under the background of longevity risk.
We have conducted a more in-depth exploration of the specific
transmission mechanism by incorporating policies such as delayed
retirement and pension insurance fee reductions.This study not only
deepens the understanding of the relationship between basic pension
insurance and economic growth from a theoretical perspective,but also
provides scientific basis for the government to formulate relevant policies
and promote the development of the pension system.
Keyword:Longevity risk;Endowment insurance;Delayed retirement;
Pension insurance fee reduction;Economic growth