全球化背景下中美价格变化协同机制
与实证研究
重庆大学硕士学位论文
（学术学位）
学生姓名：李洁雨
指导教师：龙少波教授
学科门类：经济学
学科名称：产业经济学
研究方向：国际经济
答辩委员会主席：张应良教授
授位时间：2023年6月
The Synergistic Mechanism and Empirical
Study of Sino-US Price Change in the
Context of Globalization
A Thesis Submitted to Chongqing University
in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement
for the Degree of
Master of Economics
in
Industrial Economics
by
Jieyu Li
Supervisor:Prof.Shaobo Long
June,2023
重庆大学硕士学位论文摘要第四次工业革命的持续推动，以及新一轮科学技术革命和产业转型的加速，使
得全球化正在迈向一个重要的转折点。在全球化背景下，中国的价格水平变动不仅
受到本国经济的影响，还受到了国际社会的影响，其价格水平的变动出现国际协同
的特征。作为全球前二大经济体，中美贸易往来密切，这使得中国的价格水平受到
美国因素的巨大影响，这是不可避免的。中国经济已经逐渐融入世界经济体系，对
世界市场依赖程度越来越高，也增加了中国经济所面临的外部风险和不确定性。因
此，防范外部风险成为了中国经济发展需要面对的重要课题之一。
基于以上背景，本文以中美两国2002年2月至2022年12月的月度数据为研
究样本，探索中美两国价格变化协同程度及其传导机制，深层次分析这一现象对中
国经济的影响，可以深入了解中国价格水平对外部因素的敏感程度，这对中国防范
外部冲击，有效调控价格水平波动，稳定经济发展具有重要意义。
首先，本文系统性地梳理了全球化背景下价格水平变化协同的相关研究，依据
学术界的理论基础形成分析体系，详细地探讨了中美两国价格变化协同的三大传
导机制，分别是全球贸易“一价定律”效应、全球经济周期效应以及大宗商品成本
效应三种效应，从理论上支撑了本文的实证分析。其次，本文基于中美两国的月度
数据，采用DCC-GRACH 模型计算中美两国价格变动的动态相关性，观察中美两
国价格变化协同的时变性特征。然后，本文参考权威期刊的研究成果选取变量，采
用TVP-VAR 模型对影响中美两国价格变化协同的机制进行实证研究。研究发现：
其一，中美两国消费者价格指数和生产者价格指数的动态相关性大部分为正。在全
球化程度逐渐加深的过程中，中美两国间的价格水平变化协同现象明显。其二，中
美贸易增速、货币政策协调性与中美流动性对中美价格变化协同具有显著的正向
影响。其三，国际原油价格对中美价格变化协同具有显著的负向影响。最后，提出
防范他国价格变动冲击的政策建议。一是完善全球通胀监测体系，加强防范通货膨
胀的风险。二是积极发挥财政政策的调控作用，有效缓解国内通货膨胀压力。三是
完善市场化石油定价机制和国家石油储备体系。
关键词：消费者价格指数；生产者价格指数；国际协同
I
重庆大学硕士学位论文Abstract
Abstract
The continuous promotion of the fourth industrial revolution,as well as the
acceleration of the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial
transformation,make globalization move towards an important turning point.In the
context of globalization,China's price level changes are not only affected by its own
economy,but also by the international community.The changes in its price level are
characterized by international coordination.As the world's second largest economy,China
and the United States have close trade relations,which makes China's price level greatly
affected by the United States,which is inevitable.The Chinese economy has gradually
integrated into the world economic system and is increasingly dependent on the world
market,which also increases the external risks and uncertainties faced by the Chinese
economy.Therefore,preventing external risks has become one of the important issues
that China's economic development needs to face.
Based on the above background,this paper takes the monthly data of China and the
United States from February 2002to December 2022as the research sample,explores the
degree of coordination and transmission mechanism of price changes between China and
the United States,and deeply analyzes the impact of this phenomenon on China's
economy,so as to deeply understand the sensitivity of China's price level to external
factors,which is of great significance for China to prevent external shocks,effectively
control price level fluctuations,and stabilize economic development.
First of all,this paper systematically combs the relevant research on price level
change synergy in the context of globalization,forms an analysis system based on the
theoretical basis of academia,and discusses in detail the three major transmission
mechanisms of price change synergy between China and the United States,namely,the
"one price law"effect of global trade,the global economic cycle effect and the commodity
cost effect,which theoretically supports the empirical analysis of this paper.Secondly,
based on the monthly data of China and the United States,this paper uses the DCC-
GRACH model to calculate the dynamic correlation of the price changes in China and the
United States,and observes the time-varying characteristics of the price change synergy
between China and the United States.Then,with reference to the research results of
authoritative journals,this paper selects variables and uses TVP-VAR model to conduct
empirical research on the mechanism that affects the price change synergy between China
II
重庆大学硕士学位论文Abstract
and the United States.The research finds that:first,the dynamic correlation between
consumer price index and producer price index in China and the United States is mostly
positive.In the process of deepening globalization,the price level changes between China
and the United States have obvious synergy.Second,Sino-US trade growth,monetary
policy coordination and Sino-US liquidity have a significant positive impact on Sino-US
price change synergy.Third,the international crude oil price has a significant negative
impact on the price change synergy between China and the United States.Finally,it puts
forward policy recommendations to prevent the impact of price changes in other countries.
First,improve the global inflation monitoring system and strengthen the prevention of
inflation risks.The second is to actively play the regulatory role of fiscal policy and
effectively alleviate the pressure of domestic inflation.Third,improve the market-
oriented oil pricing mechanism and the national oil reserve system.
Keywords:CPI;PPI;International coordination
III