天津空港物流加工区邻里中心建设项目，将传统的居住区商业设施业态中的 分散、小规模的零散店铺进行整合，成为集社区购物、休闲、娱乐、餐饮于一体 的一站式商业区域。邻里中心采用水平整合连锁业态的模式，使各邻里商业可按 统一品牌、统一管理形成连锁商圈；同时能贴近消费群体，能垂直整合商业机会。 开展项目可行性研究，对保证项目顺利建成、运营和投资回收，以及实现项 目经济和社会效益都有很重要的意义。本文以天津空港物流加工区邻里中心建设 项目为研究对象，采用理论与实践相结合的研究方法，从技术、经济、环保、社 会、风险等方面进行可行性研究。 由于本项目投资大、工期长、投资回收期长，因而本文重点对项目的风险进 行了分析评价。在分析项目投资和效益构成的基础上，对该项目进行风险因素辨 识和分析。然而实践中投资项目往往受许多随机因素的影响，这些因素对项目产 生影响又不断发生变化，因而要系统地对这些因素进行分析具有很大的难度。蒙 特卡罗方法是按照变量的分布随机选取数值，模拟项目的投资过程，通过大量的 独立、重复计算，得到多个模拟结果，再根据统计原理计算各模拟结果的统计量， 得到相关经济评价指标的统计特征，从而对项目投资收益与风险有一个比较清晰 的估计。本文采用蒙特卡罗模拟分析方法对项目的费用风险、财务风险、工期风 险进行了分析评估，从结果得出，项目总体上有较高的抗风险能力，并且能够达 到预期的投资收益目标。 关键字，可行性研究；风险分析；蒙特卡罗模拟ABSTRACT The Neighborhood Center Project in Tianjin Airport Logistics Processing Area is to integrate the scattered, small-scale shops of traditional commercial facilities in residential areas, and become a one-stop business district that includes community shopping, leisure, entertainment and dining. The Neighborhood Centre project adopted the horizontal-integrating chain business model, so that the neighborhood can form a business district that has unified business brand and management. At the same time, due to the interaction with consumers, business opportunities can be vertically integrated. Feasibility study has very important significance in ensuring the completion, operation, investment recovery, and achieving economic and social benefits of the project. In this paper, the Neighborhood Center Project in Tianjin Airport Logistics Processing Area is the object for study. By using theory and practice research methods, the feasibility study is made from the technical, economic, environmental, social, and risk aspects. Due to the large investment, long construction period, long investment recovery period, this article focuses on the project risk analysis. Based on the analysis of the composition of project investment and return, we first made an identification and analysis of project risk factors. However, in practice projects are often affected by many random factors, which has impacts on the project but is constantly changing, thus it is very difficult to systematically analyze these factors. Monte Carlo method is to make a simulation of the project investment process using a lager quantity of randomly selected numbers according to the distribution of variable and obtain corresponding simulation results, and then by calculating the statistical value of these results, we can obtain the statistical characteristics of the related economic values, and finally have a clearer estimate of the project risks. In this paper, Monte Carlo simulation analysis is used to assess the project's cost risk, financial risk, schedule risk, and from the analysis results obtained, the project in general has a high ability to resist risks and to achieve the expected investment returns. Key Words，Feasibility study, risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation目 录 第一章 绪论............................................................................................................1 1.1 选题的背景和意义.................................................................................1 1.2 国内外可行性研究发展概况综述.........................................................2 1.2.1 国外可行性研究发展概况..........................................................2 1.2.2 国内可行性研究发展概况..........................................................5 1.3 报告的研究内容.....................................................................................6 第二章 可行性研究理论综述................................................................................8 2.1 可行性研究的概述.................................................................................8 2.2 可行性研究的作用.................................................................................9 2.3 可行性研究的依据和要求....................................................................10 2.3.1 可行性研究的依据.....................................................................10 2.3.2 可行性研究的要求....................................................................10 2.4 可行性研究的阶段划分........................................................................ 11 2.5 可行性研究的主要内容........................................................................12 第三章 项目建设的必要性..................................................................................17 3.1 项目基本情况.......................................................................................17 3.1.1 项目名称....................................................................................17 3.1.2 项目建设单位概况....................................................................17 3.1.3 项目建设背景.............................................................................17 3.1.4 项目概况.....................................................................................17 3.2 项目建设的必要性...............................................................................18 3.2.1 社区商业市场需求.....................................................................18 3.2.2 社区商业市场定位....................................................................19 3.2.3 社区商业经济效益....................................................................19 3.3 市场研究...............................................................................................19 3.3.1 市场调查的作用........................................................................19 3.3.2 市场调查的程序........................................................................20 3.3.3 市场调查的内容........................................................................20 3.3.4 市场调查的方法........................................................................21 3.4 市场预测...............................................................................................223.4.1 市场预测的意义........................................................................22 3.4.2 市场预测的内容........................................................................22 3.4.3 市场预测的方法........................................................................23 3.5 项目的市场调查和预测........................................................................26 3.5.1 目前社区发展的主要问题.........................................................26 3.5.2 目标人群需求分析.....................................................................27 3.5.3 社区商业业态类型分析.............................................................29 3.6 主要业态优缺点分析............................................................................30 3.7 社区商业主要开发类型比较分析........................................................31 3.7.1 邻里中心型社区商业.................................................................31 3.7.2 街区型社区商业.........................................................................32 3.7.3 住宅项目配套型社区商业.........................................................32 3.7.4 比较分析.....................................................................................34 3.8 邻里中心分析........................................................................................34 3.8.1 邻里中心文化内涵分析.............................................................34 3.8.2 邻里中心的市场经营定位.........................................................35 第四章 项目技术方案可行性研究......................................................................38 4.1 建设规模................................................................................................38 4.1.1 规划布局.....................................................................................38 4.1.2 项目的功能定位及建设规模.....................................................38 4.2 项目建设方案.......................................................................................39 4.2.1 总平面布局.................................................................................39 4.2.2 建筑平面、剖面设计.................................................................39 4.2.3 建筑立面方案设计.....................................................................40 4.2.4 结构设计.....................................................................................40 4.3 公用工程................................................................................................40 4.3.1 给排水工程.................................................................................40 4.3.2 空调、通风系统.........................................................................42 4.3.3 燃气.............................................................................................43 4.3.4 强电系统.....................................................................................43 4.3.5 弱电系统.....................................................................................44 4.4 节 能....................................................................................................45 4.4.1 建筑主体节能.............................................................................46 4.4.2 建筑材料节能.............................................................................464.5 环境影响评价与劳动安全...................................................................46 4.5.1 环境影响评价............................................................................46 4.5.2 劳动安全....................................................................................47 4.5.3 项目的环境保护.........................................................................48 4.5.4 治理措施.....................................................................................50 第五章 投资估算与财务评价..............................................................................51 5.1 投资估算................................................................................................51 5.2 项目资金筹措方式................................................................................51 5.3 财务评价................................................................................................53 5.3.1 财务评价概念............................................................................53 5.3.2 财务评价的意义........................................................................53 5.3.3 财务评价的原则........................................................................53 5.3.4 财务评价常用指标....................................................................54 5.3.5 财务评价方法............................................................................55 5.4 财务预测................................................................................................56 5.4.1 收入预测....................................................................................56 5.4.2 财务效益分析基础数据.............................................................56 5.4.3 财务分析及评价指标计算.........................................................56 5.5 敏感性分析............................................................................................57 第六章 社会评价..................................................................................................58 6.1 社会评价的概念...................................................................................58 6.2 社会评价的作用...................................................................................58 6.3 社会评价的原则....................................................................................58 6.4 本项目的社会影响...............................................................................59 6.5 本项目适应性分析...............................................................................60 第七章 项目风险评价..........................................................................................61 7.1 项目主要风险因素识别与分析...........................................................61 7.1.1 项目风险分析概述....................................................................61 7.1.2 项目主要风险因素识别............................................................62 7.1.3 项目主要风险因素分析............................................................63 7.2 蒙特卡罗模拟方法介绍.......................................................................66 7.2.1 蒙特卡罗基本原理....................................................................66 7.2.2 蒙特卡罗模拟技术实施步骤....................................................67 7.3 蒙特卡罗法在项目风险分析中的应用实例........................................687.3.1 费用风险评估............................................................................69 7.3.2 财务风险分析............................................................................73 7.3.3 工期风险分析............................................................................75 7.4 风险防范措施与对策...........................................................................77 7.5 本章小结...............................................................................................78 第八章 结论和建议..............................................................................................79