随着传统化石资源的日益枯竭，能源对经济发展的制约作用越来越明显，同时， 化石燃料在利用过程中会产生导致大气温室效应的污染物，都使得推广清洁可再生能源 的利用变得尤为重要。中国拥有丰富的太阳能资源，在过去的十年里，我国可再生能源 的利用从起步阶段进入大规模发展阶段。截至 2015 年底，太阳能热利用面积超过 4 亿 平方米，应用规模位居全球首位。 本文选择云南楚雄 1MW 太阳能碟式斯特林热发电项目为研究对象，从可行性分析 的理论角度，运用技术创新管理、投融资分析等理论，从项目建设选址与建设条件、项 目技术可行性分析、项目投融资分析、项目财务评价、项目影响分析、项目风险分析等 方面，对企业实施该项目进行了可行性论证。本文认为，碟式斯特林太阳能电站的建设 符合国家关于能源建设的发展方向，属于国家大力支持的可再生能源产业。碟式斯特林 太阳能热发电技术适宜在贫瘠或荒漠化土地上进行大规模并网发电应用。太阳能热发 电输出电力平稳，具有非常强的与现有火电站及电网系统的兼容性优势；生产过程中 能耗与污染较少，对环境的负面影响较小；年均发电效率高于光伏发电；大规模运行 成本低。实现规模化运作后，将在我国未来能源结构中扮演举足轻重的角色。项目建 成后，可有效减二氧化碳、粉尘等温室气体的排放，从而为改善大气环境质量、保护青 山绿水做出贡献，项目在技术上先进，经济上有利，项目具备可行性。 近年来，经济与电力需求持续增长，推广碟式斯特林热发电技术符合我国发电产业 总体发展趋势，加快推进可再生能源分布式应用，大幅增加可再生能源在能源生产和消 费中的比重，加速对化石能源的替代，促进可再生能源布局优化和提质增效，加快推动 我国能源体系向清洁低碳模式转变，最终实现能源结构的优化升级。 关键词，太阳能；碟式斯特林；清洁能源；可行性分析II Abstract With the aggravating shortage of fossil fuels, it has become patently conspicuous that the economic development suffers severe stagnation. As the utilization of fossil fuels may cause the emission of pollutants that lead to the global warming, there is an increasingly louder call for clean and renewable energy resources. As a giant power with abundant solar energy resources, China has ushered in an era of large-scale development of renewable energy resources from the primary stage over the past decade. By the end of 2015, China’s thermal utilization of solar energy had exceeded 400 million m 2 , ranking the top among the world. Based on theories of feasibility analysis in combination of technology innovation management and investment & financing analysis, this thesis demonstrated a feasibility study of conducting the project of Yunnan Chuxiong 1MW dish-type stirling engine solar energy thermal power generation from following aspects including location selection and construction conditions, feasibility analysis of techniques, analysis of project investment and financing, financial assessment, impact analysis and risk analysis. It was concluded that the construction of dish-type stirling engine solar energy thermal power plants as the vigorously-supported renewable energy industry followed the national trend of energy development. The infertile or deserted land is suitable location for the dish-type stirling engine solar energy thermal power generation to be combined to the grid in a large scale. Solar energy thermal power generation features stable output of electricity and great compatibility with current power stations and grid systems, with less energy consumption and pollution during the generation that alleviate adverse effects on environment. It eclipses Photovoltaics (PV) in the average annual efficiency of power generation at a lower cost. The scale operation of dish-type stirling engine solar energy thermal power generation will play a pivotal role in China’s future energy structure. The completion of the project will effectively decrease the emission of carbon dioxide and dust, paving the way for improvement of atmospheric environment quality. The project proved highly feasible for its state-of-the-art technology and economic benefits. In recent years when economic growth advances along with rising power demand, replication of dish-type stirling engine solar energy thermal power generation conforms to the overall development trend of China’s power industry. More efforts are needed to accelerate distributed application of renewable resources, greatly enhance the ratio of renewable resources in energy production and consumption, expedite substitution for fossil fuels, optimize distribution, quality and efficiency of renewable resources and promote the transition of China’s energy system to clean and low-carbon modes before the optimizationIII and upgrading of energy structure. Key Words，solar energy; dish-type stirling; clean energy; feasibility studyIV 目 录 摘要..................................................................I Abstract.................................................................II 第 1 章 绪论...............................................................1 1.1 报告选题背景.............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 选题背景............................................................................................................ 1 1.1.2 研究目的............................................................................................................ 1 1.1.3 研究意义............................................................................................................ 2 1.2 国内外研究现状分析.................................................................................................. 2 1.2.1 国外研究现状.................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 国内研究现状.................................................................................................... 4 1.3 可行性报告编制依据.................................................................................................. 4 第 2 章 项目概述...........................................................6 2.1 项目名称...................................................................................................................... 6 2.2 项目建设的背景和必要性.......................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 项目建设的背景................................................................................................ 6 2.2.2 项目建设的必要性.......................................................................................... 10 2.3 项目定位与建设内容................................................................................................ 11 2.3.1 项目定位.......................................................................................................... 11 2.3.2 项目建设内容.................................................................................................. 12 第 3 章 项目选址与建设条件................................................14 3.1 项目选址基本情况.................................................................................................... 14 3.2 项目选址的建设条件................................................................................................ 14 3.3 项目投建计划............................................................................................................ 15 第 4 章 项目技术可行性分析................................................16 4.1 太阳能光热发电技术与其它发电技术的比较........................................................ 16 4.1.1 太阳能光热发电技术及碟式斯特林太阳能热发电系统简介...................... 16 4.1.2 生物质能等发电技术及其发展制约因素...................................................... 17 4.1.3 太阳能光伏发电技术及制约其发展的因素.................................................. 19 4.1.4 太阳能光热发电技术及其主要优势.............................................................. 20 4.2 三种聚光太阳能光热发电技术的比较.................................................................... 20 4.2.1 塔式太阳能光热发电技术简介...................................................................... 20 4.2.2 槽式太阳能光热发电技术简介...................................................................... 21 4.2.3 塔式、槽式、碟式太阳能光热发电技术比较.............................................. 22 4.3 碟式太阳能斯特林发电系统的适用性分析............................................................ 23V 第 5 章 项目投融资分析....................................................24 5.1 投资决策分析............................................................................................................ 24 5.1.1 投资估算主要编制原理.................................................................................. 24 5.1.2 项目投资估算.................................................................................................. 24 5.2 筹资决策分析............................................................................................................ 26 5.2.1 筹资组成.......................................................................................................... 26 5.2.2 企业信用类基金筹资方案.............................................................................. 26 5.2.3 资产证券化产品筹资方案.............................................................................. 27 5.2.4 固定资产贷款筹资方案.................................................................................. 30 5.2.5 流动资产贷款筹资方案.................................................................................. 31 5.2.6 筹资方案选择.................................................................................................. 31 第 6 章 项目财务评价......................................................33 6.1 财务指标分析............................................................................................................ 33 6.1.1 利润.................................................................................................................. 33 6.1.2 清偿能力分析.................................................................................................. 33 6.2 盈亏平衡分析............................................................................................................ 36 6.3 项目效益分析............................................................................................................ 38 第 7 章 项目影响分析......................................................39 7.1 社会影响分析............................................................................................................ 39 7.1.1 宏观经济影响分析.......................................................................................... 39 7.1.2 区域经济影响分析.......................................................................................... 39 7.1.3 社会适应性分析.............................................................................................. 39 7.2 环境影响分析............................................................................................................ 40 7.2.1 职业安全影响分析.......................................................................................... 40 7.2.2 环境影响分析.................................................................................................. 40 第 8 章 项目风险分析......................................................41 8.1 市场风险分析............................................................................................................ 41 8.2 技术风险分析............................................................................................................ 41 8.3 工程风险分析............................................................................................................ 42 8.4 资金风险分析............................................................................................................ 42 第 9 章 可行性研究基本结论................................................43 结论与展望...............................................................44