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相关研究主要包含以下几方面：一是通过我国能源及可再生能源发展现状分
析以及国内外可再生能源研究成果分析，明确本文所研究可再生能源发电的基本
对象，并对典型发电量预测方法进行梳理；二是在分析典型国家可再生能源发展
现有政策和产业发展现状的基础上，对我国水力、风力、太阳能、生物质四类可
再生能源的开发和利用情况进行分析，利用 SWOT 分析法挖掘出产业发展的优
势、劣势、机会和瓶颈；三是基于灰色预测模型，构建我国全社会用电总量发展
预测模型，并系统分析了我国可再生能源发展特点及宏观环境，并对未来可再生
能源新增装机及整体装机情况进行了预测研究，进一步梳理总结了各发电类型的
发展不确定性；最后，基于我国可再生能源发电产业发展 SWOT 分析及中长期
装机规模预测结果，从产业规划、政策机制、技术研发三个方面为产业发展提出
相应的保障措施，为国内可再生能源发电产业的可持续、健康发展提供思路和建
议
可再生能源发电发展预测及保障措施研究具有一定的现实意义，可为政府和
企业实现产业合理规划、不同电源协调发展、电源结构不断优化决策提供参考，
以帮助我国发电行业实现清洁化和可持续发展
关键词：可再生能源发电；SWOT 分析；规模预测；保障措施华北电力大学硕士学位论文
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Abstract
Renewable sources can be used sustainably. Currently, with the continuing
increasing of the international oil price and the prominent problem of global climate
change, renewable energy is facing with new development opportunities. Especially,
China has abundant renewable energy reserves and has the huge potential of large-scale
exploitation with its outstanding resource reserves and technical advancement. At
present, Chinese government strengthens the energy conservation and comprehensive
utilizations of multiple energy resources in order to maintain a rapid growth of power
industry. The research, development and utilization of power generation with new
energy are all focused on to fulfill the development goals. According to the Renewable
Energy Capacity Statistics Report in 2017 released by Chinese Renewable Energy
Department, the new installed capacity of global renewable energy power generation
has reached to 161GW, and 40% is contributed by China. Therefore, it is imperative to
study the development trend of renewable energy generation in China and predicts the
future scales for rational planning and policy decision-making.
This paper can be divided into the following aspects: First, through the concept
and research result analysis of energy and renewable energy generation at home and
abroad, the paper summarized the research background, meanings, contents and
methods were determined initially. Second, by considering with the mature experience
in developed countries, the general situations and the utilizations of renewable energies
were analyzed, such as hydropower, wind power, solar power and biomass power.
Meanwhile, through SWOT analysis method, the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities
and threats were identified which can provide references for the studies of scale
forecasting model and supporting measures. Third, based on the grey correlation model,
the prediction model of total electricity consumption was constructed. Consequently,
the Chinese new installed capacity and accumulated installed capacity of renewable
energy generation in the future were forecasted considering with the policy
environment and their characteristics. The uncertainty analysis was also explored to
make the prediction more dependable. The At last, based on the analysis results of
SWOT and scale forecasting of renewable energy generation in China, the supporting
measures were proposed from the aspects of industry planning, policy and mechanism,
technical search and design .
The relative researches have realistic meanings which can provide references for华北电力大学硕士学位论文
III
government and enterprises to realize the rational industry planning, the multi-
generation coordinative development and the generation structure improvement. It is
also helpful to fulfill a clean and sustainable development of renewable energy
generation in China.
Keywords： renewable energy power generation; SWOT analysis; scale prediction;
supporting measures华北电力大学硕士学位论文
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目 录
摘要......I
Abstract ...... II
第 1 章 绪 论........1
1.1 研究背景与意义 .....1
1.1.1 研究背景...........1
1.1.2 研究意义...........3
1.2 国内外研究现状 .....4
1.2.1 国外相关研究综述 ......4
1.2.2 国内相关研究综述 ......5
1.3 研究内容与方法 .....7
第 2 章 相关基础理论分析 .........9
2.1 可再生能源相关概念.........9
2.1.1 能源相关概念 ..9
2.1.2 可再生能源发电概念..9
2.2 典型可再生能源发电量预测方法分析 .11
2.2.1 经济模型法 ....11
2.2.2 综合分析法 ....12
2.2.3 电力弹性系数法 ........13
2.3 本章小结 ...14
第 3 章 我国可再生能源发电发展现状分析..15
3.1 典型国家可再生能源发电发展现状......15
3.1.1 美国可再生能源发电发展现状 .......15
3.1.2 欧盟可再生能源发电发展现状 .......17
3.1.3 日本可再生能源发电发展现状 .......20华北电力大学硕士学位论文
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3.2 我国可再生能源发电发展现状 ..21
3.2.1 水力发电发展现状 ....22
3.2.2 风力发电发展现状 ....23
3.2.3 太阳能发电发展现状.....
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