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本文在学习了国内外关于个人住房贷款风险预警的各种著作和理论的基础上，具
体以苏州 A 银行为例探讨建立个人住房贷款风险预警体系的可能性。文章首先分析
了 A 银行现有的贷后风险预警指标及其手段，指出其存在的问题，并进一步对问题
的成因进行了分析，揭示出仅从预警指标、预警模型这两个方面并不能实现有效的风
险预警，唯有通过建立个人住房贷款的风险预警体系，风险预警的目标才能最终实现
然后，通过分析构建预警体系的目标和原则，确立起 A 银行个人住房贷款风险预警
体系的整体架构。最后，再具体从风险预警指标、预警流程、预警监控系统、组织架
构和人员管理等方面详细探讨该体系建立过程中需要解决的各项问题，构建起有效的
支撑体系，最终把 A 银行的个人住房贷款风险预警体系呈现出来
关键词：个人住房贷款；风险预警；体系；苏州 A 银行
作 者：苏春龙
指导老师：薛誉华II
Research on risk early warning system
of Suzhou A bank’s personal housing loan
Abstract
Since 1998,China&39;s housing system reformation,the scale of personal housing loan of
our country get rapid expansion.By the same time,default risks of personal housing loan
are in increasing. Most commercial banks that had opened personal housing loan business
realized this problem, they took various measures to reveal the risks in advance as many as
possible. Academia also had launched a fierce discussion. Some tried to discover all factors
that can affect the risk of personal housing loan from the perspective of risk early warning
indicators,and classified them according to their respective characteristics; The others
established various models to furtherly discuss the influence degree of the risk factors, and
gave reasonable weights.All these provided a positive thinking to build effective personal
housing loan risk early warning system.
This paper studied existing researches of all kinds of books about personal housing
loan risk early warning home and abroad ,then tried to establish the early warning system
with Suzhou A bank as an example . The paper first analyzed A bank’s existing risk early
warning indicators and methods, pointed out its problems, and furtherly analysed the cause
of the problems, revealed that only from the aspects of early warning indicators and early
warning models can not reach the goal of risk early warning.We have to establish the
personal housing loan risk early warning system, then it would be possible to realize the
real risk early warning. In the second place, through the analysis of objectives and
principles of constructing early warning system, this paper setted up the overall
architecture of A bank’s personal housing loans risk early warning system. Finally, from
the detailed analysis of risk early warning index, early warning process, early warning and
monitoring system, organizational structure and personnel management, this paper
discussed the problems to be solved in the process of building the risk early warning
system, builded up effective supporting system, and finally showed us A bank’s personal III
housing loan risk early warning system.
Keywords: Personal housing loan; Risk early warning; System;Suzhou A bank
Written by: Su chunlong
Supervised by: Xue yuhua
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目 录
第一章 绪论 ...........1
一、研究背景.....1
（一）我国个人住房贷款的发展现状......1
（二）个人住房贷款的风险现状..2
二、国内外研究现状.....3
（一）国内研究现状..........3
（二）国外研究现状..........5
三、研究目的和意义.....6
四、本文的研究思路和方法.....7
五、本文的创新与不足.8
第二章 理论基础 ...9
一、信息理论.....9
二、信息不对称理论...10
三、预测理论...11
四、预期收入理论.......11
五、“5C”理论 ..12
第三章 苏州 A 银行个人住房贷款风险预警现状 ........14
一、苏州 A 银行个人住房贷款发展及风险现状......14
（一）发展现状....14
（二）风险现状....15
二、苏州 A 银行风险预警现状分析..17
（一）对客户信息进行批量监管18
（二）对贷款的真实性、合规性进行监管........18
（三）对一手房他项权证归行率进行监管........19
（四）对押品信息进行监管........19
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第四章 苏州 A 银行风险预警存在的不足和原因分析21
一、存在的不足...........21
（一）风险预警的基础有待完善21
（二）风险预警的规范有待明确22
（三）风险预警的保障有待加强23
二、原因分析...24
（一）外部因素....24
（二）内部因素....25
第五章 苏州 A 银行个人住房贷款风险预警体系的构建........26
一、构建风险预警体系的总体目标和原则...26
（一）总体目标....26
（二）构建原则.......
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