Shoki.Omori@morganstanleymufg
Takeshi.Yamaguchi@morganstanleymufg
MORGAN STANLEY MUFG SECURITIES CO., LTD.
Shoki Omori
RESEARCH ASSOCIATE
+81 3 6836-5466
Takeshi Yamaguchi
ECONOMIST
+81 3 6836-5404
Japan EconomicsJapan Economics
Monthly Labor Survey (Jun,
Prelim): Beware of Bumpy
Bonuses
Headline earnings fell for the first time in three months due to
one-off impact of bonuses. June YoY numbers are volatile as
bonuses are paid out at different times. Jun-Jul data need to be
viewed together. Part-timers’ hourly earnings growth has
moved above 3%, highest since Aug 2008.
Total nominal cash earnings per employee fell, but contractual earnings and
scheduled earnings remain in an uptrend: Total nominal cash earnings for June
were -0.4% YoY, the first drop in three months. Total nominal cash earnings per
full-time employee were -0.5% YoY (contribution: -0.5pt) in the June data,
weighing down average earnings per employee. Total nominal cash earnings per
part-time employee were +1.7% YoY, a third straight month of growth.
The 1.4% YoY drop in special cash earnings (bonuses) per full-time employee in
June contributed greatly to the decline in average nominal earnings per
employee. Average nominal contractual/scheduled earnings per regular
employee, however, have been on the rise for three months running, and our
view is that the moderate uptrend in pay is unchanged when the highly volatile
special pay figures are stripped out. Also, in manufacturing, where
contractual/scheduled earnings are rising steadily, increases in base pay levels
may be taking precedence over bonuses.
YoY changes in special cash earnings fluctuate widely over June-July, when many
establishments pay bonuses, because of slight differences in payout timing. And
the revised June-July figures for special pay often represent substantial changes,
so the revised figures for both June and July need to be considered together to
gain an overall picture of bonuses paid according to the Monthly Labor Survey
data. Also, the final summer bonus figures are announced together with the
September results (due out Nov 7).
Part-time employees’ hourly earnings growth touches 3% for first time since
Aug 2008: Growth in scheduled work hours was flat MoM, and this resulted in
per-hour earnings rising in June following their single month in decline. Part-time
earnings growth is also accelerating in response to labor-market tightness, and
reached 3% YoY for the first time since Aug 2008. Per-hour earnings fluctuate
widely and thus need to be smoothed to ascertain the trend. Based on a 12-
month moving average (Exhibit 2), the growth rate picked up slightly vs. the
previous month in June. The uptrend in per-hour earnings driven by part-timers
appears to remain intact.
Employment is growing firmly, uptrend in total employee compensation
Exhibit 1:Nominal Total Cash Earnings (YoY, %)
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
15/615/915/1216/316/616/916/1217/317/6
Scheduled (Cont., %pt)Non-Scheduled (Cont., %pt)
Special (Cont., %pt)Total Cash Earnings
Note: Per employee. Establishments with 5 or more employees. Contribution
calculated by Morgan Stanley Research
Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Morgan Stanley Research
Exhibit 2:Employee Type Per Hour Earnings (YoY, %)
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
20102011201220132014201520162017
Regular Employees (12MBMA)Full-Time Employees (12MBMA)
Part-Time Employees (12MBMA)
Note: Per employee. Establishments with 5 or more employees. Per hour
earnings is calculated by dividing scheduled earnings by scheduled work hours.
Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Morgan Stanley
For important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section,
located at the end of this report.August 4, 2017 06:22 AM GMT
continues: Total employee compensation, derived by adding growth in total cash
wages per person and growth in employment (+2.6% YoY), continues to grow at
a solid pace of +2.3% YoY. Using the employment figure in the Labor Force
Survey (+1.5% YoY), growth in total employee compensation comes out as +1.1%
YoY.
Outlook: The unemployment rate remains low, and we forecast a decline to the
mid-2% level by end-2018. The labor market has become increasingly tight (see
'Japan Economics: Shrinking ‘Hidden Slack’ in Japan's Labor Market: What’s
Changed Since 2013' (26 Jul 2017) for details) and with the hidden slack
contracting, we expect increases in wages will spread to ordinary full-time
employees as well.Exhibit 3:Per Employee Total Cash Earnings (YoY, %,)
Total Cash Earnings (Nominal)
ContractualRealContractual
MonthlyScheduledNon-ScheduledMonthlyScheduledNon-Scheduled
Jan-160.0-0.1-0.1-0.12.10.0Jan-16-0.1-0.10.00.1
Feb-160.70.60.60.610.90.5Feb-160.60.60.00.1
Mar-161.50.70.70.714.71.4Mar-160.70.60.00.8
Apr-160.00.00.00.00.00.3Apr-160.00.00.00.0
May-16-0.1-0.1-0.21.2-0.50.4May-16-0.1-0.20.10.0
Jun-161.40.00.00.03.61.8Jun-160.00.00.01.4
Jul-161.20.10.3-2.43.81.6Jul-160.10.2-0.11.1
Aug-160.00.10.4-3.6-1.90.6Aug-160.10.4-0.3-0.1
Sep-160.00.20.20.2-8.40.6Sep-160.20.20.0-0.2
Oct-160.10.10.2-1.10.80.0Oct-160.10.2-0.10.0
Nov-160.50.30.5-2.13.2-0.1Nov-160.30.4-0.20.2
Dec-160.50.30.5-2.00.70.1Dec-160.10.2-0.10.4
Jan-170.30.40.6-2.0-0.8-0.1Jan-170.40.5-0.10.0
Feb-170.40.10.2-1.120.50.0Feb-170.10.2-0.10.3
Mar-170.0-0.1-0.1-0.11.5-0.3Mar-17-0.1-0.10.00.1
Apr-170.50.40.40.42.00.0Apr-170.40.30.00.1
May-170.60.50.7-2.02.70.0May-170.50.6-0.10.1
Jun-17-0.40.40.40.4-1.5-0.8Jun-170.20.20.0-0.6
Jul-17Jul-17
Aug-17Aug-17
Sep-17Sep-17
Oct-17Oct-17
Nov-17Nov-17
Dec-17Dec-17
QuarterlyQuarterly
2016 Q10.70.40.40.49.20.62016 Q10.40.40.00.3
2016 Q20.40.0-0.10.41.00.82016 Q20.0-0.10.00.5
2016 Q30.40.10.3-1.9-2.20.92016 Q30.10.2-0.10.3
2016 Q40.40.20.4-1.71.60.02016 Q40.20.3-0.10.2
2017 Q10.20.10.2-1.17.1-0.22017 Q10.10.2-0.10.1
2017 Q20.20.40.5-0.41.1-0.32017 Q20.40.40.0-0.1
2017 Q32017 Q3
2017 Q42017 Q4
Annual (CY)Annual (CY)
2013-0.4-0.9-1.01.41.7-0.92013-0.7-0.80.10.4
20140.4-0.1-0.42.72.9-2.82014-0.1-0.30.20.5
20150.10.20.30.4-0.8-0.920150.20.20.0-0.1
20160.50.20.2-0.62.40.720160.10.20.00.2
SpecialSpecial
ContributionGrowth Rate
Note: Establishments with 5 or more employees . Non-scheduled earnings and special pay are back calculated from indices. Contribution calculated by Morgan Stanley Research. Quarterly numbers calculated by Morgan StanleyResearch
Source: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Morgan Stanley ResearchExhibit 4:Per Employee Hours Worked (YoY, %)
MonthlyScheduledNon-ScheduledMonthlyScheduledNon-Scheduled
Jan-16-0.8-0.7-2.8Jan-16-0.7-0.2
Feb-160.40.7-1.8Feb-160.7-0.1
Mar-160.71.0-1.8Mar-160.9-0.1
Apr-16-1.4-1.4-1.0Apr-16-1.3-0.1
May-16-0.8-0.7-1.8May-16-0.7-0.1
Jun-16-0.3-0.2-1.0Jun-16-0.2-0.1
Jul-16-2.5-2.5-1.8Jul-16-2.3-0.1
Aug-16-0.8-0.7-2.0Aug-16-0.7-0.1
Sep-160.40.5-0.9Sep-160.5-0.1
Oct-16-1.0-0.8-1.0Oct-16-0.7-0.1
Nov-16-0.1-0.1-0.9Nov-16-0.1-0.1
Dec-16-0.2-0.1-1.8Dec-16-0.1-0.1
Jan-17-1.1-1.20.7Jan-17-1.10.1
Feb-17-0.5-0.71.5Feb-17-0.70.1
Mar-17-1.7-1.91.5Mar-17-1.70.1
Apr-17-0.7-0.80.6Apr-17-0.70.0
May-171.01.01.6May-171.00.1
Jun-170.10.0-0.2Jun-170.00.0
Jul-17Jul-17
Aug-17Aug-17
Sep-17Sep-17
Oct-17Oct-17
Nov-17Nov-17
Dec-17Dec-17
QuarterlyQuarterly
2016 Q10.10.3-2.22016 Q10.3-0.2
2016 Q2-0.9-0.8-1.22016 Q2-0.7-0.1
2016 Q3-1.0-0.9-1.62016 Q3-0.8-0.1
2016 Q4-0.4-0.3-1.22016 Q4-0.3-0.1
2017 Q1-1.1-1.31.22017 Q1-1.20.1
2017 Q22017 Q2
2017 Q32017 Q3
2017 Q42017 Q4
Annual (CY)Annual (CY)
2013-1.0-1.42.72013-1.30.2
2014-0.4-0.64.02014-0.60.3
2015-0.3-0.3-1.02015-0.3-0.1
2016-0.6-0.5-1.52016-0.5-0.1
Total Work Hours Growth RateContribution
Note: Per employee. Establishments with 5 or more employees. Contribution and per hour earnings growth rate calculated by Morgan Stanley Research. Quarterly numbers are calculated by Morgan Stanley ResearchSource: Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, Morgan Stanley Research。。。以上简介无排版格式，详细内容请下载查看