摘要
摘要
电子商务迅速发展并逐渐趋于饱和状态使得商家对商品频繁地执行折扣
销售策略，但同时多样化的选择使得消费者在进行购买决策时不再单一地考
虑价格因素而将更多注意力转移到服务质量层面，物流质量的提升逐渐成为
在线零售商赢得竞争的关键成功因素。本文以电商平台大促期间物流的高延
迟率这一现实现象为基本出发点，探讨不同环境背景下折扣、订单与物流表
现的潜在联系,并为平台应对物流压力挑战提供了一些对策。
研究利用中国大型在线零售商（京东）交易层面的二手数据集，形成以
161,003条订单数据为基础构建的“SKU-天”面板维度的1,348条样本数据，
建立实证模型并利用 STATA软件进行分析。研究探讨了折扣深度、相对订单
量水平与物流表现之间传导机制以及相对订单量水平在其中起到的中介作用。
进一步，研究讨论了网络购物节在“折扣-订单”路径上的调节机制和布货灵
活性在“订单-物流表现”路径上的调节机制。由于布货行为属于事前行为而
具有一定的局限性，研究最后探索了平台在订单事后响应所形成的物流网络
属性对订单波动与物流表现之间关系的调节机制。
研究结论表明，产品的折扣深度会引起订单量向上的波动，而订单量的
向上波动会对物流表现产生负面影响，且相对订单量水平在这一传导机制中
起到间接中介作用。网络购物节期间，折扣深度对相对订单量水平的影响更
为明显，这是因为网络购物节所带来的氛围效应加强了促销的影响。此外，特
定产品库存覆盖的区域仓储中心数量越多（即布货灵活性越高），越有助于平
台在实际订单到达前提供潜在运输灵活性从而帮助缓解订单波动带来的物流
延迟，但这种作用仅体现在非网络购物节期间。在产品订单实际到达后，平台
做出响应而形成的物流安排网络对于应对订单不确定性具有潜在影响，网络
购物节期间更高的网络密度、非网络购物节期间更低的网络密度以及更多的
摘要
网络模块数量能够帮助平台吸收订单激增对物流表现带来的负面影响。
本研究在实证研究的基础上发现了网络购物履行链条上重要节点之间的
潜在联系，并提供了非网络购物节期间物流延迟问题同样值得关注的证据。
同时，本研究为自营物流电商提供相关管理建议，帮助其做出不同折扣情境
下的销售预判以及在预计订单产生波动时做出事前库存布局决策和事后物流
调度安排决策。这些管理建议对物流交付整体质量的提升具有一定意义。
关键词：电商零售、折扣、订单管理、物流表现
Abstract
Abstract
The rapiddevelopment andsaturation ofe-commerce markethave led
merchants to implement discount strategies for their products frequently. However,
fierce competition among various merchants has led consumers to consider not only
price but also service quality when making purchase decisions. Improvement of
logistics quality has gradually become a critical factor for online retailers to win the
competition. Unfortunately, many online retailers have struggled with poor logistics
performance during online shopping festival. This research is thus motivated and
aims to explore the relationship among discounts, orders, and logistics performance
in various contexts. The results will shed lights on countermeasures that platforms
can implement in the face of logistics pressure.
This research used a transaction-level secondary data set of a Chinese large
online retailer (JD) to assemble a sample of 1,348 SKU-day units derived from
161,003 orders. Then this research used STATA to conduct empirical investigation
on the mediating mechanism of relative orders on the relationship between discounts
and logistics performance. Also, this research explored moderating effects of online
shopping festival on the "discount-order" path and moderating effects of inventory
layout flexibilityonthe "order-logisticsperformance" path.Since inventory
arrangement is ex-ante and has its limitations under high uncertainties, this research
further investigated how properties of the logistics network formed by the platform's
ex-post responses to orders affect the relationship between order oscillation and
logistics performance.
Results show that discount depth increases relative order volume, which, in
turn, negatively affects logistics performance. Further, effects of discount depth on
relative order volume are more pronounced during the online shopping festival,