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非全日制专业硕士学位论文
宁德时代动力电池回收利用项目
风险管理研究
学 位申 请人 ： 何泽彦
专业领 域： 企业管理
校内导 师： 邓小朱教授
校外导 师： 李发生研究员
答辩日期：2022 年5 月 28 日 独创性声明
本人郑重声明：所呈交的学位论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究
工作及取得的研究成果。尽我所知，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的地方
外，论文中不包含其他人已经发表和撰写的研究成果，也不包含为获得华
东交通大学或其他教育机构的学位或证书所使用过的材料。与我一同工作
的同志对本研究所做的任何贡献均已在论文中作了明确的说明并表示了谢
意。
本人签名日期 2022.05.22
关于论文使用授权的说明
本人完全了解华东交通大学有关保留、使用学位论文的规定，即：学
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保密的论文在解密后遵守此规定，本论文无保密内容。
学 生 本 人 签 名日期 5 月 22 日
校 内 导 师 签 名日期 5 月 22 日摘要
摘要
在碳达峰碳中和的国际背景下，面临着技术的不断变革与产业政策推动，新能源汽
车近年来发展迅速，但随着新能源汽车保有量的增加，动力电池退役高峰期即将到来。
为了避免动力电池回收利用技术不健全、体系不完善等问题加剧环境变化，推动资源的
循环利用，通过构建动力电池回收利用产业链为动力电池研发提供充分的原材料，应对
多样化的市场需求和愈加激烈的市场竞争，在当前新能源汽车和动力电池回收利用的风
口下，宁德时代在动力电池回收利用项目上必须建立风险评价体系，科学评价影响项目
实施的最大因素，以更好地进行风险管理、应对与监控。
本文以宁德时代动力电池回收利用项目为研究对象，根据企业面临的内外部环境状
况以及动力电池回收利用项目管理现状，充分考虑项目运营过程中可能出现的各种风
险，参考国内外针对风险管理、动力电池回收利用等专业文献，运用如头脑风暴法、专
家调查法等项目风险管理知识，对宁德时代动力电池回收利用项目实施过程中可能面临
的风险进行识别，并根据系统性、客观性及科学性的原则对识别出的风险进行综合性评
价，然后采用模糊层次分析法构建项目风险层次结构，计算出各风险在项目实施过程中
发生的概率以及对项目的影响程度，在此基础上，结合宁德时代动力电池回收利用项目
发展现状，为宁德时代后续在项目实施过程中有效应对各项风险发生提出针对性的应对
策略，制定项目风险应对清单。
针对宁德时代动力电池回收利用项目，通过研究本文得出以下结论：
(1) 本文发掘出宁德时代动力电池回收利用项目实际存在的七个风险类别，分别是
政策风险、财务风险、市场风险、人力资源风险、运营风险、供应链风险、技术风险；
(2) 对宁德时代动力电池回收利用项目风险进行度量、评价，得出关键风险因素的
排序，最终得出五个一级风险，七个二级风险及九个三级风险。并依据项目主体现状，
对各级因素提出针对性应对方案。
关键词：风险管理；动力电池回收利用；模糊层次分析法
I Abstract
Abstract
Under the international background of carbon peak and carbon neutrality,
facing the continuous change of technology and the promotion of industrial
policies, new energy vehicles have developed rapidly in recent years. However,
with the increase of the number of new energy vehicles, the peak of power battery
retirement is coming. In order to avoid problems such as imperfect power battery
recycling technology and imperfect system further exacerbating environmental
changes, and to effectively reduce power battery production costs and provide
sufficient raw materials, large-scale recycling of power batteries is imperative. In
order to cope with the diversified market demands and increasingly fierce market
competition, CATL must establish a risk evaluation system in the power battery
recycling project, scientifically evaluate the biggest factors affecting the
implementation of the project, so as to better improve risk management, response
and monitoring .
Taking CATLpower battery recycling project as the research object,
according to the internal and external environmental conditions faced by the
enterprise and the current situation of powerbattery recycling project
management, fully consider various risks that may occur in the process of project.
Refer to domestic and foreign professional literature on risk management, power
battery recycling and other professional documents, and use project risk
managementknowledge such as brainstorming method and expert investigation
method to identify the risks that may be faced during the implementation of the
power battery recycling project of CATL, systematic, objective and scientific
principles are used to comprehensively evaluate the identified risks. Then, the
fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is used to construct the project risk hierarchy,
and the probability of occurrence of each risk in the project implementation
process and the degree of impact on the project are calculated. Follow-up in the
project implementation process to effectively respond to the occurrence of various
risks, put forward targeted coping strategies, and formulate project risk response
lists.
In view of the CATLpower battery recycling project, the following
conclusions are drawn through the study of thesis:
II Abstract
(1) This paper discovers 7 risks that actually exist in the power battery
recycling project of CATL, namely policy risk, financial risk, market risk, human
resource risk, operational risk, supply chain risk, and technical risk;
(2) Measure and evaluate the risks of the power battery recycling project of
CATL, and get the ranking of key risk factors. Finally, five first-level risks, seven
second-level risks and nine third-level risks are obtained. According to the current
situation of the main body of the project, a targeted response plan is put forward
for the factors at all levels.
Key Words: Risk management； Power battery recycling； Fuzzy analytic hierarchy process
III