COAL PHASE OUT
AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS
FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC The shaded areas of the map indicate ESCAP members and associate members.*
The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacifc (ESCAP) serves
as the United Nations’ regional hub, promoting cooperation among countries
to achieve inclusive and sustainable development.
The largest regional intergovernmental platform with 53 member States and
9 associate members, ESCAP has emerged as a strong regional think-tank
offering countries sound analytical products that shed insight into the evolving
economic, social and environmental dynamics of the region. The Commission’s
strategic focus is to deliver on the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development,
which it does by reinforcing and deepening regional cooperation and integration
to advance connectivity, fnancial cooperation and market integration. The
research and analysis undertaken by ESCAP, coupled with its policy advisory
services, capacity building and technical assistance to governments aims to
support countries’ sustainable and inclusive development ambitions.
*The designations employed and the presentation of material on this map do not imply the
expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations
concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or
concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.COAL PHASE OUT
AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS
FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
United Nations publication
Copyright @ United Nations 2021
All rights reserved
ST/ESCAP/2936
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Istock photo #586163548of any opinion on the part of the United Nations
concerning the legal status of any country, territory,
page 16 city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the
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page 26 References to dollars ($) are to United States dollars
Istock photo # 586073426 unless otherwise stated.COAL PHASE OUT AND ENERGY TRANSITION PATHWAYS
FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC
Contents
Acknowledgement v
Executive summary vi
Introduction 1
Chapter 1Current situation, trends and expansion plans3
1.1 Current role of coal for power generation in the Asia-Pacifc region 3
1.2 Planned coal fred power generation 6
1.3 Emissions from coal power generation not consistent with the Paris Agreement 14
1.4 Impact of COVID-19 crisis on policies for phasing out of coal in the South-East Asia subregion 19
Chapter 2Drivers of coal expansion in the region21
2.1 Asian countries are joining the global trend away from coal21
2.2 Drivers of coal expansion in Asia and the Pacifc 22
Chapter 3How can trends be reversed – pathways for a transition to clean energy 27
3.1 Paris Agreement compatible energy transition27
3.2 Renewable energy potential35
3.3 Comparison of costs for renewable energy and storage vs. fossil fuel technologies 37
3.4 Integration to maximise benefts from renewable energy potential 40
Chapter 4Benefts of a transition from coal towards renewable-based effcient energy system 41
4.1 Access to clean and affordable energy 41
4.2 Employment 42
4.3 Health, reduced air and water pollution, and impact on water scarcity 42
4.4 Avoided risk of stranded investments 43
4.5 Energy security and independence43
4.6 Environmental degradation 43
4.7 Land use 44
4.8 Shifting investment – opportunities for a green COVID-19 recovery45
4.9 Economic impacts of climate change46
Chapter 5Conclusion and recommendations51
References 59
Annexes 64
Annex 1 Asia-Pacifc coal feet pipeline64
Annex 2 Climate change impacts65
ii
List of boxes
Box 1 \ The additional burden of COVID-19 44
List of figures
Figure 1 \ CO2 emissions from coal by sector 3
Figure 2 \ Coal generation as percentage of national electricity generation in 2019 4
Figure 3 \ Current coal feet and pipeline in Asia-Pacifc region by status and technology 8
Figure 4 \ Current coal feet and pipeline (left) and age distribution (right) in the North and
Central Asia (NCA) subregion by status and technology 10
Figure 5 \ Current coal feet and pipeline in countries in the East and North-East subregion (ENEA)
with stable or contracting coal capacity, by status and combustion technology 11
Figure 6 \ Current coal feet and pipeline in China, by status and combustion technology 12
Figure 7 \ Coal capacity by status and technology, in countries in the South and South-West Asia
(SSWA) subregion with high expansion plans compared to current capacity 12
Figure 8 \ Current coal feet and pipeline in India by status and technology 13
Figure 9 \ Coal capacity by status and technology, (left) and age distribution (right) for countries
in the South-East Asian (SEA) subregion (all categories) 13
Figure 10 \ Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fred power generation
capacity in the Asia-Pacifc region 14
Figure 11 \ Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fred power generation
capacity in the North and Central Asia subregion15
Figure 12 \ Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fred power generation
capacity in the countries of the East and North-East Asia subregion with stable
or contracting coal capacity 17
Figure 13 \ Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fred power generation
capacity in the China17
Figure 14 \ Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fred power generation
capacity in India 18
Figure 15 \ Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fred power generation
capacity in the countries of the South and South-West Asia subregion with high
capacity expansion plans (Turkey, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka)18
Figure 16 \ Estimated emissions over time resulting from current coal-fred power generation
capacity in the countries of the South-East Asia subregion 19
Figure 17 \ Potential coal generation in Non-OECD Asia against Paris Agreement benchmarks28
Figure 18 \ Levelized cost of electricity – a comparison between fossil fuels and renewable
sources, 2019 37
Figure 19 \ Shift in energy investments from current policy to a 1.5 pathway 45
Figure 20 \ Projected changes in GDP per capita in subregions due to changes in global mean
annual temperature 48
Figure 21 \ Projected GDP per capita gains from limiting 1.5°C versus 2°C warming by subregion 49
Figure 22 \ Projected changes in climate extremes over fve Asia-Pacifc subregions 67
iii