摘要
论文题目：恒大集团多元化发展战略的流动性风险分析
论文类型:案例分析
专业方向：金融机构管理
摘要
2010年前后，我国房地产政策调整进入到前所未有的严格时期，房地产行
业也告别了黄金时代，进入到利润和销售量逐渐下行的周期。在这样的背景下，
恒大集团等一众房地产企业选择进行多元化发展战略，寻找新的利润增长点，
分散来自于房地产行业的风险。恒大集团作为我国房地产行业前十强，其资金
实力不容置疑，但是发展新产业意味着房地产业务要给新业务拓展提供资金支
持，前期投入回笼周期有长有短，且新的产业本身也具有经营风险，就会给企
业带来新的流动性风险。恒大集团本身的经营模式就是高杠杆、高周转，其短
期内大量投资多元化产业的行为给集团累积了不可估量的流动性风险。本文选
择恒大集团作为案例，从宏观、中观、微观三个角度分析了恒大集团实施多元
化发展战略的背景，得出恒大集团是因为房地产政策日渐严格，利润增长空间
逐渐封顶，为了寻找新的利润增长点，或在未来实现企业转型而进行多元化发
展战略的。
在筹资端，恒大集团在进行多元化发展战略后，其资产负债率一直在80%以
上的非安全区徘徊，属于严重高负债运营。为了支持多元化产业发展，其负债
规模也逐年成倍增长，其结构也呈现出流动性负债比例过高的现象。并且恒大
集团的融资成本远高于业内其他同规模的房地产企业，其 2017年全面回购永久
性资本工具后，筹资端压力又出现大幅上涨，并且三道红线的发布断绝了恒大
继续增加银行贷款的可能性。在投资端，恒大所投资的多元化产业创收能力弱，
花费大量资源投入的新能源汽车产业至今没有实现量产，巨额研发费用是压在
恒大集团流动性上的一块巨石。并且在我国房地产政策提出“房子是用来住的，
不是用来炒的”之后，恒大依然在全国范围内大量拿地，且是通过高成本募资
购买，又为集团流动性水平增加压力，这些土地如今商业价值不高，难以通过
出售的方式获得流动性。在运营端，恒大集团进行的多元化产业当中存在大量
和房地产主业关联度较低的产业，跨行业经营缺乏经验，一味采取收购投资的
发展也并未带来新产业业绩增长，所涉足新产业均发生了程度不等的经营风险，
甚至最后被收购，集团一直以来都是是凭借良好的信誉和借款能力维持着高周
转的发展模式。
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摘要
本文采用TOPSIS-熵权模型研究了恒大集团2015年到2020年的流动性财务指
标来度量其流动性风险，发现恒大集团的流动性风险呈现出逐年上升的状态。
在恒大集团的运营过程中，公司的决策权太过集中，不符合现代化公司治理理
念，为恒大集团的激进经营埋下了伏笔。以上三点就是恒大集团进行多元化发
展后，流动性风险逐渐积累的主要原因。在“三道红线”和新冠疫情的冲击下，
流动性风险由隐性转变为显性，金融业融资渠道彻底被切断，集团也因此逐渐
陷入流动性风险泥潭。
由于政策原因，恒大集团高杠杆、高周转的运营模式被戳破，今后必须实
现降负债发展。为了恒大集团早日走出流动性泥潭，本文建议恒大集团应聚焦
主业，减少相关度低的多元化、在集团范围内建立流动性风险监管体系，配置
有效化解措施、实行现代化公司治理结构。
关键词：多元化发展；流动性风险；房地产
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Abstract
Abstract
Around 2010, China's real estate policy adjustment entered an unprecedented strict
period. The real estate industry also bid farewell to the golden age and entered a cycle
of gradual decline in profits and sales. In this context, Evergrande group and other real
estate enterprises choose to carry out diversified development strategy, look for new
profit growth points and disperse risks from the real estate industry. Evergrande group,
as one of the top ten real estate enterprises in China, has no doubt about its financial
strength. However, the development of new industries means that the real estate
business needs to provide financial support for the expansion of new businesses. The
return cycle of early investment is long and short, and the new industry itself also has
business risks, which will bring new liquidity risks to the enterprise. Evergrande group's
own business model is high leverage and high turnover. Its massive investment in
diversified industries in the short term has accumulated immeasurable liquidity risk to
the group. This paper selects Evergrande group as a case, analyzes the background of
Evergrande group's diversified development strategy from the macro, meso and micro
perspectives, and comes to the conclusion that Evergrande group carries out the
diversified development strategy in order to find new profit growth points or realize
enterprise transformation in the future because of the increasingly strict real estate
policy and the gradual capping of profit growth space.
On the financing side, Evergrande group, after carrying out the diversified
development strategy, has been hovering in the non safe zone with an asset liability
ratio of more than 80%, which is a serious high debt operation. In order to support the
development of diversified industries, its debt scale has also doubled year by year, and
its structure also shows the phenomenon that the proportion of liquid liabilities is too
high. Moreover, the financing cost of Evergrande group is much higher than that of
other real estate enterprises of the same scale in the industry. After its comprehensive
repurchase of permanent capital instruments in 2017, the pressure on the financing side
increased significantly, and the release of three red lines cut off the possibility of
Evergrande continuing to increase bank loans. On the investment side, the diversified
industries invested by Evergrande have weak income generating ability, and the new
energy vehicle industry that spends a lot of resources has not achieved mass production
so far. The huge R & D expenses are a huge stone on the liquidity of Evergrande
group. Moreover, after China's real estate policy proposed that "houses are used for
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